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Well, here's two quick examples of why this is not meaningful in the real world
of trading:
I had a close friend that was a very talented trader. He worked at the same
trading institution I worked at in the early 80's. He got a very large bonus one
year and decided he would go try his skills on the Merc. I visited him on the
floor after he had been there about six months and he was quite comfortable,
making a great living, and he was very respected by the other active locals.
About nine months later, he left the floor and took a job in New York at another
institution. When I asked him why he left the trading floor, he told me that he
was making a great living, but the best analogy he could give me was that for
the first 6-9 months, he was looking at the floor and 'picking up a dollar here
and there...they were just there for the taking.' Some days. he'd look and he'd
find a five or ten, but usually, it would be the accumulation of those ones and
twos that added up to a good day. But after 9 months, he wanted to find more of
those 10's and 20's and he just wasn't satisfied with finding ones and twos that
added up to great money--something was missing and so his profitability began to
suffer. In other words, the profits were there, in a form, but not a form that
was long-term attractive to him.
The second example you hear referenced on this list day in and day out. There
ARE profitable trading systems out there. But so many people cannot take the
trades that the systems spit out and execute them, trade after trade, without
second-guessing or flinching. When a system gets on a negative run, very few
people can stay in the same motion of just getting the orders and executing the
orders. These people 'know' that when viewed in the long term, that system will
make money. But on the detail level of executing each order and seeing it
succeed or fail, they cannot detach their emotions. And this same problem is
experienced all the time by discretionary traders. Being able to take the next
trade after a loser or two losers or three losers can be a problem for many
people. And if you are a technical trader and your technicals give you a signal
that you 'know' works over time, but you hear a news item and that news item
sticks in your head, for many people, they are unable to execute the technical
based trade, because the news has shaded their view.
That's why it's not just your system or indicators or trendlines...so much of
trading is YOU. If you can manage yourself and make the most of your tools and
stay focused, you'll be in that small group of traders that makes money
consistently.
Best,
Tim Morge
In a message dated 98-06-29 12:38:07 EDT, IdontgetNo@xxxxxxx writes:
>If for every buyer there is a seller and for every winner there has to be a
>looser. For all you new comers that are spending endless days and nights in
>front of your computers trying to figure out systems, indicators,
>oscillators, and different time frames to make your ideas and systems work.
>Don't you think that someone with a lot more money than you already figured
>it out and if what your working on does work, they will make sure it doesn't
>just long enough to get you discouraged. If it didn't work from the start,
>then you've already lost your money by spending all this time that you will
>never be able to replace.
>
> Only problem with this logic is that what one person can't begin to trade,
> another can. Its more the person, then the system.
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