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In a message dated 98-06-08 16:52:09 EDT, you write:
<< My belief on systems and system vendors is not that they are necessarly
trying to "rip" anyone off or sell junk, its that they don't understand
markets. Again my belief (which doesn't have to be yours) is that markets
are continually evolving. Patterns emerge, disolve, emerge again and
sometimes become extinct. To design a system around a recent pattern (ie
5yrs) and expect that pattern to continue is not wise. I believe some
system vendors truely feel that they may have stumbled on to some great
secret when they first develop a system. After the system does't make
them rich overnight they begin to sell it. That doesn't mean its "junk".
It just means the system was not conceptually correct during its design or
the trader lacked the discipline to consistantly trade it. >>
Hi Bruce,
Thanks for the reply. I found your comments to be those from one blessed with
many years of trading experience. They contain wisdom, are logically sound and
as one who is relatively new to the trading arena, I can only hope to someday
develop a fraction of your insight.
However, I'm not sure that this is even a trading issue. This is a problem
that is prevalent in any business. I call it the 'I don't ever have to cross
the line if I just move the line' syndrome.
All vendors have a true belief of the value of their product. This may or may
not be the belief that they project to clients. Only they know the degree of
their deception.
Personally, I can't see how I could ever sell a trading system. I don't trade
systems but if I did and developed one that was successful, I'd trade it and
guard it zealously. If wasn't successful, selling it would involve a degree
of deception (by NOT disclosing my true experience with it). I take your point
that just because I couldn't make money with it doesn't mean that you or
someone else couldn't make a mint and I agree with you completely. But if
that's the case, then it's not my system that is making the difference is it?
It's the difference between you and me. Do I deserve recompense for your
inherent skill and discipline? Am I justified in defending ALL attacks against
my system from people who are unable to make money using it (as I couldn't)?
For instance, it is claimed that a disciplined trader can make money employing
a simple coin-toss technique. If I sold such a system, would detractors of my
product be entirely unjustified in their condemnation of my 'secret', back-
tested, disclaimer-protected code? (IF Heads Buy - ELSE Sell)?
I agree with the 'buyer beware' philosophy. We should always try to be
vigilant but if we get caught, then we only have ourselves to blame. But I'm
not sure whether this admittedly deserved self-recrimination exonerates those
who know (deep-down) that the success achieved by certain people using their
system is more a function of the law of averages and an individual's
suitability for trading rather than the sometimes outrageous claims they make
for them in their advertisements.
I acknowledge that only some vendors are guilty of this. They know who they
are. The question is: How do we know who they are?
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