|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
First, the fundamentals:
Brazil and Argentina have to stop lowering their export prices, as they
have been over
the last 3 weeks, due to bumper crops.
I've got to see a definite long position taken by the commercials in the
COT
I've got to see some stabilzation in Asia, so that they may buy our crops.
I'd like to see a lessening of this El Nino BS; the more people predict
short
supplies and higher prices due to El Nino, the more prices will go
down...
count on it.
We are not even in the planting season yet. I want to see the
preliminary reports
on the plantings before I take a trade.
I want to see those who are now taking long positions get their heads
handed to them, and
finally give up on any notion that prices are going up. Because when
they cover their
longs and their stops get hit, it will probably mean that there are
no more sellers out
there; and if there are no more sellers, prices have to go up.
Secondly, the technicals:
I want decreasing Open Interest.
I want a decrease in the spread of premium between back months and front
months
I want to see an up day break the 40 day moving average to the upside
I want to see a breakout above the highs of last 5 - 10 days
I want to see my own proprietary indicators (there are only 3, but I won't
disclose them) tell me that a turnaround is imminent.
And finally, my chicken entrails and tea leaves have to be JUST right!
Dave
At 10:57 PM 4/5/98 -0500, you wrote:
>Dave wrote:
>>
>> You may be right; the grains may be starting to bottom. However, I
>> NEVER try to pick turning points in the markets. I'll wait till we
>> get a confirmed up move, backed up by my indicators.
>>
>> Dave
>>
>> At 11:48 AM 4/6/98 -0500, you wrote:
>> >
>> >
>> >Any you tech guys watching Soybeans, Wheat, Oats and Corn I haven't been
>> >watching a long range chart . The question I asking is this last move down
>> >looking like a washout for a possible near term bottom. Maybe time to
start
>> >picking at the bottom here for El Nino.
>> >
>> >Robert
>> >
>> >
>
>So, tell us what's a confirmed upturn according to you indicators?
>
>
|