|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
You don't say if you are a day trader or position trader but I heartily disagree
with your blanket assertion that backtesting beyond the past few months is a
waste of time. 4 years is but a smidgeon of time in the universe of markets!
Yes, markets do cycle through various phases, some of which can last years, but
any trader who believes that we're in a new paradigm which will last forever is
doomed. If nothing else, backtesting across all kinds of markets teaches us
humility and gives us a little less blind faith in the system du jour. Anyone
inspecting a monthly log chart of the DJ can find many similarities between
recent history and 1925-1929, including rate of ascent and limited retracements,
so the prudent trader will enjoy the mania while it lasts and be prepared to
avoid going down in flames on the back end of this monster.
Earl
-----Original Message-----
From: Jim Cox <cayenne@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Thursday, March 26, 1998 1:17 PM
Subject: Backtesting
>HI,
>
> 1. I am a fulltime stock index futures trader, and have been for four years.
>
> 4. But most important, IMHO, backtesting beyond the past few months is a
>complete waste of time. What happened in 1982, 1987, 1992, 1995, or 1997
>has absolutely no bearing on how the stock index futures trade today. Where
|