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Tim,
Very interesting conversation going on. It is finding the base of trading.
I think that you have it. Certainty alone, but certainty with track record and
lots of experience, repeated over and over, in a specific way, no matter what
the method will bring about intuition. When that intuition is in the correct
arena, it is valid and when it is transposed to a different arena, it may or may
not work.
Your example is proof that the rich 'stock and real-estate' investor
need something to verify or vindicate his methodology in a new arena. He knew
that his method was not directly applicable or suspected it. (How did he
know?) So he used his model, computerized, to determine the potential results in
"new arena". He did not like the results, why? He thought he knew better
(intuitively) and acted on his own certainty anyway. In this case the computer
model and resulting output was apparently correct (for this new arena), or
atleast more correct than his own certainties. He still traded on what he knew
and failed because he attempted to transpose his knowingness (intuition) and
skills that had worked so often before to another arena without building his
abilities to the same level in that there first.
Interesting that his model did work there but he refused to believe it due to
the new tool, the computer, being used. What he intuitively knew to include and
exclude of his method gave a more accurate response than he had himself.
Sounds like I am proving both views, the computer is right and intuitive
certainty is right, doesn't it? What I am saying is both of these are tools. The
trader is neither of them! He is the one who decides which tool, at which time
is appropiate for that application at hand. It is the Trader and that ability
that he must have that I wish to concentrate.
Choice of Tools, the code, the system , the market, the fundamentals, the
timeframe, the method, the indicator, the pattern all are in front of him, all
of the time! Which one's to use, which one's to continue using, which to dump,
which to never use, which to always use, this is infinite.
What is it that makes a successful trader? What is it that makes an unsucessful
trader? The answers to either are unlimited, are they not?
Here is where some form of intuition must be utilized, consciously or
unconsciously. It does not matter if the trader calls himself a system trader, a
discretionary trader, a chart trader, a fundamental trader, a floor trader, a
dart throwing trader, blink 3 times and what stock do I first focus on trader,
they are all relying on something "within" to use'em and trade with'em. The
trader, the user of the tools has the intuition, not the tools. Perhaps that is
one source of confidence.
See U
Tom
-----Original Message-----
From: Timothy Morge <tmorge@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: Money management and Trading business
>Knowing yourself, knowing your strengths and your weaknesses, and
>staying within your capabilities are the best tools you can arm
>yourself with.
>
>Tim Morge
>
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