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Tom et All
Iīm watching this list for a while and have developed and optimized
systems as good as I could without programming knowledge. In the end I
returned to my old approach, a simple set of MAs to give me a clue and a
simple but still improovabale set of criteria/rules to protect myself
from my mental shortfalls.
Without your comment it might have taken another week or so, but I felt
the question brewing : Is out there someone or a group, who have been
able to develope a system that really works, that you could take
Linncoīs LEO stuff, turn on your computer, go on vacation and return
saturday enjoying your profits and just do some computer checks?
Lately I optimized a system for the march dm. results where okay and
than I put it on june dm and it just was horroble. Normally it takes a
couple of month to get the changing market profile to chew up a system,
but this was a real quicky.
And if it is favorable to use the brain, is there a way to get rules for
trading, that have nothing to do with the actuall rt quotes into Ts?
Something like
I sold beans and are only willing to keep them, if they close 3 cents
into profit (on thze close, in one hour, whatever timeframe)?
or
Add to the position, when the market makes an Fib retracement of ??%
from last high/low and your initial position is at least 5 points ahead?
or
Alert, when the market moves above yesterday last 1/2 hour high / below
low?
There are plenty more. Donīt get me wrong, I can find out how to do the
programming myself, will take more time but thats not a problem. I think
the problem starts, when you have to punch 5 or 6 different criterias
into one market/system.
Let me know if there is interest here to get a discussion rolling, that
concentrates a bit on that kind of system (not programming for trading
signals, but for keeping your attention on whats important) and I still
would like to know if someone really owns a mechanical system that
produces profits and you feel 100% comfortable with, so that you can
trust the signal without second guessing but full faith and make money
over an extend periode of time.
Thanks for your time - Ulrich
Tom Cathey wrote:
> Hi Glenn -
>
> Ain't it the truth - You're not alone.....
>
> I've been at it for 18 years and tested everything under the sun. I
> just
> hope most guys continue to fool around with ridgid systems,
> (especially
> optimized)..... 'cuz I do not want to trade against guys like
> yourself who
> can change with the market on a moment's notice...and are light years
> ahead
> in decision making ability vs: a computer....That is assuming that
> you are
> disciplined and have gone through the gauntlet to appreciate it all.
>
> Ya know...I read somewhere that the reason the CFTC is so brutal
> against
> system vendors, hypothetical results and the like is 'cuz they feel
> all
> "systems" are doomed to fail....and nothing works no matter what you
> do.......and the system promoters (losers) are out there trying to
> fleece
> the public. If you have witnessed the heavy fines, prosecutions, new
>
> proposed legislation, etc. happening lately with the NFA, etc.
> concerning
> this stuff you will know what I mean. I think the Feds think it is
> their
> job to really let the public know the real score, and if they still
> want to
> invest then so be it.
>
> Hey, I have seen it myself.... systems that work for a while...but
> when the
> probabilities turn the other way, they get friggin destroyed. It's
> all a
> wash over time...break even.... The only thing I've seen really
> perform in
> a stellar manner over a long period of time is a discretionary human
> being
> USING a computer as his tool to aid his decision making and crunch the
>
> numbers. It's really a bell curve like everything in life. If you have
> 1000
> systems working, 950 will break even, 50 will make a lot of money, and
> 50
> will get destroyed. (I'm being very generous and general) The next
> month
> (or whatever time period) another group will work and the others will
> get
> destroyed. There always has to be a bell curve when optimized systems
> try
> to predict human behavior.
>
> And something else....UNLESS you have discovered something VERY unique
> that
> no one else is using AND is unlikely to be easily discovered in mass,
> your
> system is doomed to break down as other "optimizers" start finding
> what
> works this month, etc. It's like a dog chasing it's tail. There was a
> guy
> (Joe Ross?) who said he's witnessed a long term 7 year cycle where the
>
> "volatility break out" systems work, and then the "Turtle-type"
> trending
> systems start working again. I've seen the same. (Unfortunately there
> are
> many faster cycles that mix in with the 7 year one) Remember when
> Bob
> Buran was touting his break out systems? I tested that and different
> versions. It worked great, then got destroyed. Same with the
> Turtles....and
> all the rest. They work , then they don't, then they do, .....a wash.
> BTW,
> Buran claims his performance is partly 'cuz of discretionary. Same for
>
> Sands, the Turtle. They employ the brain also to help choose.
>
> I've had a number of guys send me messages saying they have fully
> optimized
> stuff that works, but I really feel it is 10-20% a year kinda stuff,
> if
> that, over time. To achieve 100-200% per year like say, Tudor Jones,
> and
> other discretionary traders requires just that...discretionary. I mean
>
> 10-20% can get blown out real fast in a bad month. If the potential
> isn't
> 100-200%+ why in the world take the kind of risk we do in futures
> markets?
>
> I feel computers are wonderful....I live with three in front of me
> trading
> all day...but I would never let a progarm dictate my trades
> again...like
> you, it's too darn expensive.
>
> All I really wanted to say is that I feel your frustration. <G>
> I'll bet
> the majority of people on this list cannot believe the time they've
> spent
> testing systems (like you and me) and maybe think there is something
> wrong
> with them..."why can't I make money like everyone else?" Well, it's
>
> OK..... You're not alone.
>
> I am saying all of this NOT from a frustrated, "given up on systems"
> point
> of view, but from someone who has been through this rough endless road
> and
> is finally happy after settling on a different method.
>
> Glenn, let me know how you make out.
>
>
> Good Luck -
>
> Tom Cathey
>
> (private trader )
>
> ----------
> > From: Glenn Schultz <glens@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: Omega List <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
> > Subject: Unidentified subject!
> > Date: Thursday, March 12, 1998 5:59 PM
> >
> > I am a discretionary trader. For the past year I have been looking
> into
> > system trading and to date have been unable to create a system that
> can
> > outperform my historical record. I addition, I have a friend that
> traded
> > like I do and he went to system trading and lost his butt.
> >
> > In my opinion the evidence is beginning to stack up against system
> trading.
> > Has anyone out there switched to system trading and found their
> performance
> > improve. All I can say is that I am glad I looked into this system
> trading
> > stuff before I put my capital behind it.
> >
> > Reaching the point of frustration and exhaustion with system trading
>
> > Glenn
> >
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