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Morgan,
> >"The party is still going. But we are trying to dance near the
> >emergency
> exit."
> yes, one should, however, be a rationalist first and foremost. The
> market(s) are behaving this way because we have a large percentage
> of the population investing as much income as possible in
> preparation for retirement. They have no faith in the social
> security system, and as a result, the conceptual distinction between
> social security and market investing have blurred.
This is exactly the reason why the market will fall. The market is
designed in such a way to weed out stupidity. A market that is
continously rising attracts invariably many stupid people who think it
will continue this way.
However no social system nor nature can afford that stupidity gets
rewarded.
That is why the market must crash in a big way. It will crash when
stupidity has reached its climax. This rally will be remembered as
one of the biggest sucker rallies in history.
If a 10% earnings slow-down at Intel can knock a few billions of its
market-cap then something is wrong.
If Turner and Gates can give away a few billions for charity then
something is wrong.
If companies with no revenue can have market-caps of half a billion
then something is wrong.
If a society can and wants to spend a billion on one film then something
is wrong.
Shall I go on ?
This is an asset bubble.
Gerrit
> the events of
> 1929 were predicated on the aftermath of the first world war,
> including but not limited to; wholesale butchery of the most
> productive segment of the european nation's working populations,
> plague (spanish flu), famine, political idiocy, bad international
> trade policy, low degree of government coordination, bolshevism,
> national socialism, ect, almost ad infinitum...
> One should be exceedingly particular with how one equates
> statistical resemblances with social realities
>
>
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