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Jay Mackro wrote:
> Believe me, I very much want to be assured that a system
> that performed well in 1988 will perform well in 1998 -
> however, does 1988 market data really bear any relationship
> to what I am likely to experience this year?
We never can know that with certainty, no matter what method we rely on.
However, if we find a trading method that would have been profitable in 1900
, 1901, 1902, 1903, and in every year up to the present, and if those
profits resulted from a large number of trades each year, then we have a
reasonable basis to expect the method will be profitable in 1998. Real-time
trading profits over the past year, three years, or five years mean almost
nothing in comparison.
-Bob Brickey
Scientific Approaches
sci@xxxxxxxxxx
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