|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Lionel,
I need to know the general thing you are working on. Sounds simple but the field is so vast I need to narrow it down. I might be able to at least tell you if you are working on a dead end or something that is tangible....
--- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "formulaprimer" <formulaprimer@xxx> wrote:
>
> Lionel,
> best example i can give was I had a predictive event that would happened due to seasonality and how the big money funds use it.. Several well known members here and others noticed this predictive event and i narrowed it down to already been occurring thus two standard deviations of reoccurring it was statistically relevant so it happened and lets say I did quite well. They were skeptics and they were impressed.
> This might clear it up... Keynesian economics which is excepted form of economics now is actually a full function of debt which is called credit... Due to this function not a single dollar in US terms can exist without debt... If the US gets rid of all its debt it will have zero dollars in existence... This is cuz the federal reserve is as federal as federal express... federal reserve has share holders and is privately owned... with is plain truth you can see exactly how much within two standard deviations of the increase in the money supply which is printing of money like zimbabwe and the old Weimar Republic and the dilution or of US Dollars and money... this is how you know when the bubble is rising or popping... cheap credit or low interest rate causes increase in the money supply which causes inflation which is a function of cheap money in circulation. Now to the most important part.. If the indicator does not coincide with this bubble and eventual bubble popping action then it is just luck and hind sight indicator... much like throwing darts against a newspaper and buying that stock, which was very successful during a bubble like the dot.com or the resent real estate bubble. technical indicator must = fundamental reality... A = B... If you are using technicals you are just reversing the math to B = A... Hope this helps.
>
> --- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Lionel Issen" <lissen@> wrote:
> >
> > Formula primer:
> >
> > You are correct that "geometric algebra is far more difficult." ,
> > wikipedia.org has a long article on it. I'd need to get a PhD in math to be
> > to be able to use it. Perhaps we could use an engineering approach i.e. use
> > applied mathematics without having to know much about mathematical theory.
> >
> >
> >
> > Can you explain a little more about "so the way to have any predictive
> > ability is to get 2 standard deviations of the move before knowing the exact
> > full extent of the move?"
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Lionel
> >
> >
> >
> > From: equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> > On Behalf Of formulaprimer
> > Sent: Wednesday, January 20, 2010 6:16 AM
> > To: equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: [EquisMetaStock Group] Re: best indicator
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > I developed my own using geometric mean which is far superior in accuracy
> > than algebraic mean... geometric algebra is another way but it is far more
> > difficult than the general western indicators like RSI MACD and all MA
> > variations... All indicators are hind sight indicators which means like
> > fractal you can only say a top and bottom exists after the fact so the way
> > to have any predictive ability is to get 2 standard deviations of the move
> > before knowing the exact full extent of the move... because of this problem
> > large funds use seasonal cycles as predictive buying and selling that means
> > they use time instead of price... so it might be better to use time and
> > completely ignore price... my indicators almost ignore price and use time
> > angle because if you notice degree of angle has a lot to due with the
> > markets and of course distinguishing from trend and whipsaw consolidation...
> > in closing the majority of markets go sideways unless the market is in a
> > bubble. Hope this helps.
> >
> > --- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > <mailto:equismetastock%40yahoogroups.com> , "Patrick Butler" <pat494@>
> > wrote:
> > >
> > > Hi all,
> > >
> > > I have been using many indicators over the years e.g. rsi, Macd, moving
> > averages etc.
> > > Mostly all of them are lagging ( for obvious reasons ) etc. But one does
> > need an indicator or perhaps better a pair of indicators. Where one covers
> > the other's deficiences.
> > >
> > > Which 2 or more would you recommend to concentrate on ?
> > >
> > > thx
> > >
> > > Pat
> > >
> >
>
------------------------------------
Yahoo! Groups Links
<*> To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/equismetastock/
<*> Your email settings:
Individual Email | Traditional
<*> To change settings online go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/equismetastock/join
(Yahoo! ID required)
<*> To change settings via email:
equismetastock-digest@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
equismetastock-fullfeatured@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
<*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
equismetastock-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
<*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
|