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I have backtested several methods of projecting the current trend to the next day. I have fitted the last n bars to a linear least squares fit, a quadratic least squares fit, and a fourier transform of the last n days. Each of these results in an equation that can be solved for one bar in the future.
My backtests show that none are profitable.
My conclusion is that there is a tendency for humans to look at a chart and think that the price trend contains some inertial mass, similar to a car moving down the road. Unfortunately, the price trend of a stock has zero inertial mass.
--- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, pumrysh <no_reply@xxx> wrote:
>
> Krishna,
>
> No one can give you tomorrow's value. To do so is projection or speculation and certainly not valid.
>
> There was a users group some time back which developed a formula for predicting the closing price needed for the signal line to cross the MACD.
>
> Not very helpful when you think about it since the close does not come until the very end of the trading day.
>
> Preston
>
>
>
> --- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "k_krishna79" <k_krishna79@> wrote:
> >
> > Normally the moving average formula for metastock is mention below:
> >
> > Mov(Data Array, Periods, E S T TRI VAR W VOL)
> >
> >
> > Normally the moving average that is calculated is for the next date, can i have the line ahead, what i mean is the leading moving average.
> >
> > Kindly help.
> >
> > Regards,
> > KRISHNA
> >
>
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