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Nope, failure is guaranteed. That's simply a mathematical fact.
Assume that your system guarantees a loss of no more than 10% of your
bet size and you double your bet after each loss. Even with an
initial bet size of just 2% of your account, you'll be out of business
after only six consecutive losses. With an initial bet size of 3%,
you'll be dead after five consecutive losses. That doesn't even allow
for the occasional Black Swan where the market blows through your stop
and causes a loss of more than 10%.
Even a great trading system will yield five or six consecutive losses
every once in a while.
Martingale bet sizing does not work in Las Vegas and it does not work
in the markets. You have to get smaller after each loss.
From: thomas12ng <thomas12ng@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Date: Saturday, March 28, 2009, 3:21:20 AM
Subject: [EquisMetaStock Group] Re: Hi all - Help Need .
depends on your system dude! and it depends on your personality and
your perception about this system
if your system loss 20% of 100% total trade then your method is
perhaps will claim back all the losses
but if the system keeps trigering at the down trend even the father of
super martingale can find him self sleeping at his neighbour garage in
the next morning :)).
my suggestion is that
1. just cut and paste your system logic into indicator builder and
see whether the signal correct and suit your personality
2. avoid pyramiding and see how your system goes
3. just ask your self about your system. was the system signal is
purely from you or someone who only know a slight coding method and
admit him self as a "coach or even trading guru" offer you this
system. I did experiencing this condition before. when I ask him
back whether you know what the system picks he was just smurking. at
that time I was so angry and knew has been deceived. felt like I was
going to smash his head by a base ball stick. since then I never
trust anyone before my eyes see it
--- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Patrick Butler" <pat494@xxx> wrote:
> Hi,
> You are just about to make one of the worst mistakes in trading imho
> - that of doubling down !
> You will get away with it a few times and feel pretty confident but
> when it doesn't work out as will be the case it will eat a large
> hole in your capital ! Accept this advice of an old trader and save
> yourself a blown up account
> regards
> Pat
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: deadlysmile01
> To: equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Sent: Thursday, March 26, 2009 9:39 AM
> Subject: [EquisMetaStock Group] Hi all - Help Need .
>
> Hi all,
>
> I am backtesting a system where whenever i go wrong ( i.e. if the
> trade results in a loss) i double the size of the bet.
>
> So i need to modify the entry size under the Buy order / sell
> order tab, i tried using Simulation.CurrentPositionPerformance, and
> Simulation.CurrentPositionSize which resulted in an error.
>
> Can someone please help in that.
>
> Thanks.
--
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