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Re: [EquisMetaStock Group] Re: Quick checks



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Big Papa,
 
The problem with divergence(s) is that you never know "how much" is divergence.  Sure, many times we all see a market making new highs while an oscillator has started it's downward slide.  But, at what point is there too much divergence?  One of the pet peeves are educators that claim you can trade divergences (as if a light goes when the divergence spreads to a certain distance). 
 
Later this month, I plan on giving a Equis seminar (or better put:  Equis is planning on a web seminar that I will be hosting on the 26th of January).  I've decided to review the 2008 mechanical approaches I favor (concentrating on the DIA).  I will be featuring the StoRSI, the CMO3 and the SEO.  First I will show results without a trend filter.  Secondly, I will feature the oscillators with a trend indentifier (in the seminar I will be using the T8...Tillson's ema).  Finally, I will show results of the three oscillators, the trend filter and an alternative exit strategy (Standard Error Band). 
 
Considering how crazy the markets have been this year, these simple approaches have extracted considerable profits.  There are some easy ways to identify the best prospects for these mechanical setups.  Simply pick some default triggers (i.e., +90/-90 for the CMO3) and run a test on all the S&P 500.  In little time, you should be able to zero in on stocks that are bouncing to a regular beat.  In the seminar, I will identify the most likely suspects (the issues that have continually produced returns).  Some will outperform the 2008 stats; some will not perform as well; and of course, many will continue at their 2008 pace. 
 
As we get closer to the seminar date, I will share more information about the approaches.  It is the same work that I've been doing for the past dozen or so years.  It's simple stuff.
 
Happy New Year to one and all,
 
Steve


From: Big Papa <denver69692002@xxxxxxxxx>
To: equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Monday, December 29, 2008 9:59:17 AM
Subject: [EquisMetaStock Group] Re: Quick checks

Preston,

Ok, I got the indicator in. And included the r1, r2, and r3, then
smoothed the r2 by 3 and the r3 by 2.

My initial reaction is that it seems to work well on 5-7 day
increments,( I trade with EOD data), but doesn't catch the longer
trends. I applied to the QQQQ, and lets say I bought at RSI<10 and
sold at RSI>90. Many times over the past 5 months, it would have
given false buy signals.
But, when it does work, for instance, Oct 27th @ 32.54 to Nov 11th @
36.93, it is good.

When I review the meaning of the RSI, I am looking for a divergence
between the market index making a new high, but the RSI failing to
surpass a new high. That divergence would indicate a reversal. Seems
like I might need to track down Mr. Wilder's book?

I think I read Steve's things posted here about the StochRSI. I did
apply that to several stocks and really liked the way it looked. I
applied standard error bands and did buys on the StochRSI and exits
based on which bands it hit. I did most of the work on that in July
and August. Needless to say, I got spooked by its performance from
then until now. Autozone (AZO) was a great one for that system. But,
it seemed like Steve had it absolutley dialed in for the 7 or 8
things he traded. I'm still jealous and frustrated I can't find my 7
or 8 things.

Big

--- In equismetastock@ yahoogroups. com, pumrysh <no_reply@xx .> wrote:
>
> Big,
>
> The RSI(2) is popular and seems that I also read a TASC article on
> the RSI(3). Once you break down the RSI formula you can see why
the
> short numbered lookbacks work so well and are becoming popular. It
is
> really nothing that we haven't known for some time. Steve Karnish
> loves and uses the StochRSI for very similar reasons.
>
> The RSI uses the ROC or C-ref(c,-10) , sums the ups and downs,
smooths
> them using wilders smoothing and then scales to 100(maybe not in
that
> order).
>
> Using the RSI Raw Indicator plot 3 different RSIr's[RSIr( 1),(2),and
> (3)] on a chart and you will see something rather unique.
> Remember that the RSI Raw is not Wilder smoothed.
>
> The RSIr(1)will be either 0 or 100.
> Now compare a RSIr(2) and RSIr(3).
> Then smooth the RSIr(2) by 3 and the RSIr(3) by 2.
> Now compare the results.
>
> Let me know what you think.
>
> Preston
>
>
> ps. The RSI Raw Indicator is below if you need it:
>
> {Name: Rapid RSI
> Formula:by Golson at Equis}
> tp:=Input("Length" ,1,1000,14) ;{time periods in RSI calc}
> plot:= C;
> change:= ROC(plot,1,$ );
> Z:=Sum(If(change> 0,change, 0),tp);
> Y:=Sum(If(change< 0,Abs(change) ,0),tp);
> Ytemp:=If(y= 0,0.00001, y);
> RS:=Z/Ytemp;
> 100-(100/(1+ RS)){end}
>
>
>
>
>
> --- In equismetastock@ yahoogroups. com, "Big Papa"
> <denver69692002@ > wrote:
> >
> > Preston,
> >
> > Thanks. I just got done reading Larry Connors latest book "Short
> > Term Trading Strategies That Work".
> >
> > He has a plan which he calls the VIX Stretch whereas he trades
the
> > SPY based on the following rules:
> >
> > SPY>200 MA
> > VIX> 5% or more above the 10 day moving average for 3 or more
days.
> > Buy on close.
> >
> > Exit when SPY 2 day RSI > 65
> >
> > He offers up different scenarios that can be run including
> different
> > VIX % above the 10 MA plus the amount of days it is above the
> moving
> > average.
> >
> > All through the book, Mr. Connors preaches the value of the 2
day
> > RSI. Not sure if that is to lead folks to the TradingMarkets
> website
> > and his real cash cow of the subsciption to their stock rating
> > system, but I suspect a little bit so for the unitiated.
> >
> > But overall, he does have 5-6 laid out strategies that could
start
> a
> > beginner in the right direction, I think. One thing he does well
is
> > back up the history of trades with the numbers. One thing he
> doesn't
> > do well is show how much money is lost on the 20-25% of trades
that
> > don't go well. And he is somewhat against stop losses, which
scares
> > me a bit from a risk and capital preservation standpoint.
> > Disclosure, Big is not on the Connors payroll. :)
> >
> > Thanks for the help.
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > --- In equismetastock@ yahoogroups. com, pumrysh <no_reply@> wrote:
> > >
> > > Big,
> > >
> > > See if this helps.
> > >
> > > Preston
> > >
> > >
> > > Buy:= C <=LLV(C,7);
> > > {close is less than or equal to lowest low value of close over
7
> > days}
> > >
> > > Sell:= C >= HHV(C,7);
> > > {close is greater than or equal to highest high value of close
> > over 7
> > > days}
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > A RSI(2) is of little value and I would suggest using the 3
day
> > > lookback period for it.
> > > You can sum for 2 days like this:
> > >
> > > Sum(RSI(3),2)
> > >
> > > Using Cum() would add the values going all the way back to the
> > > beginning of the chart.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > For the VIX, I have:
> > > VIX: The average implied volatility of 8 OEX options with a 30
> day
> > > expiration reported as an index.
> > >
> > > Volatility Spike: As defined by techies it is when the VIX
rises
> > > 35% .
> > >
> > > Saitta surmized that the volatility spike was useless in
> > markets
> > > that did not rise above 35%, therefore he standardized the
> measure
> > by
> > > using a 15% rise of the 20 day moving average. His definition
is:
> > >
> > > Saitta's Volatility Spike: The VIX minus 115% of its 20 day
> moving
> > > average. In metastock terms the formula would be:
> > >
> > > {Saitta Volatility Spike}
> > > A:= P; {This must be dropped on VIX price plot}
> > > B:= (mov(A,20,s) * 1.15)
> > > X:= A – B;
> > > X;
> > >
> > > You would need to open two charts. One with a price plot of
the
> > S&P
> > > 500 and another with the VIX. Click onto the VIX plot and move
it
> > > onto the same chart as the S&P. Call the Saitta Volatility
Spike
> > > (SVS) indicator from the indicator list and drop into its own
> > window
> > > when the VIX plot is highlighted. Use a horizontal line at 0.
> > >
> > >
> > > Finally,
> > > ref(C,-1)>Open
> > > is correct.
> > >
> > >
> > > --- In equismetastock@ yahoogroups. com, "Big Papa"
> > > <denver69692002@ > wrote:
> > > >
> > > > Group,
> > > >
> > > > I need some quick checks on some coding.
> > > >
> > > > Buy: Close @ 7 day low, code - C<=(LLV(C,7) )
> > > >
> > > > Sell: Close @ 7 day high, code - C>=(HHV(C,7) )
> > > >
> > > > Correct?
> > > >
> > > > Next, I am looking for a cumulative value of RSI over a
period
> > of 3
> > > > days.
> > > >
> > > > Cum(Sum(RSI( 2),3)
> > > >
> > > > Correct?
> > > >
> > > > Next, I really need help on this one. Looking for a code if
VIX
> > >
> > > 5%
> > > > or more above the 10 MA for 3 or more days.
> > > >
> > > > Lastly, today open > yesterday's close
> > > >
> > > > ref(C,-1)>Open
> > > >
> > > > Thank you and Happy Holidays.
> > > >
> > >
> >
>


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