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Hello Preston
Thanks for the knowledge sharing. Hope you are having a nice weekend. I had a good one visiting a Tiger Sanctuary nearby.
I need to take your message small chunk at a time.
I did google on Guppy MMA and understood the notional concept. But I couldn't locate any coherent discussion on how to interpret this wonderful technique with examples preferably in MS world.
I found an oscillator approach on
http://trader.online.pl/MSZ/e-w-Guppy_MMA_Oscillator.html
and an exploration
http://trader.online.pl/MSZ/e-ex-Guppy_Multiple_Moving_Average_Exploration.html
But nothing on how to interpret the results. My purpose is to model it in MS explorer to provide me a basic screener as you pointed out.
In particular, here is my struggle
Any interpretation of Congestion/Intertwine region of ShortTerm and LongTerm Group (If so how will I determine it, a naive approach may be all values ST or LT in a say 1% band)
Does Crossovers have any significance? Is so, how would I determine it, as cross function works with two data arrays only.
How do you interpret the constricted patterns in a group? (I guess some of the MA's having same value should create this pattern)
Finally I guess Close has to be higher than the ST group which in turn should be higher than the LT group for a buy list candidate. Does this make sense.
I guess if I can write and understand this explorer, it will be an achievement for me as a newbie.
Can you please help me here?
regards
N
----- Original Message ----
From: pumrysh <no_reply@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, April 5, 2008 7:16:49 AM
Subject: [EquisMetaStock Group] Re: Need some help about how to write MS Code for a rule using Aroon ...
N,
First, you are welcome and second there is no need to apologize for
asking questions.
My personal tendency in trading is to look for those candidates
which I think are ready for a breakout into a trend. To do this I
use something similar to the Guppy moving averages...basicall y just
a bunch of moving averages. I don't use the Aroons but if I were
initially I would probably look at longer time periods...say maybe a
24 and a 50 in seperate windows. I'm looking for something that has
broken above some rather flat long term moving averages. To use the
Aroons I would look for an up move above 50 and the down to be
declining, hopefully below 50.
This is just for a basic screening.
Once I have my basic candidates selected I would change my tactics a
bit, now looking for increases in volume and some signals from a
modified version of a RSI that I use. I also consider some
fundamental data at this time.
Thats usually enough to get me into a decent trade but I also have
another tactic that I use to tell me when its time to exit a trade,
basically using a trailing ATR stop.
Remember the idea is to win big and loose small.
As far as gurus that I would follow, I like Price Headley. More
recently he's taken some top trading awards, uses a pretty simple
system, and has made money when others are not.
Hope this helps,
Preston
--- In equismetastock@ yahoogroups. com, Nand Rathi <nand_rathi@ ...>
wrote:
>
> Preston
>
> First, thanks a million for such a nice and down to earth email
about the complex and enticing topic of Technical Analysis. I
appreciate this conversation very much as it is opening access to
the knowledge.
>
> I do appreciate every point you have made and I am sure that
newbies in this group will benefit from a manifesto like this.
>
> Seriously, I am not looking at MS as a panacea. I think I know the
pitfalls very well. Also, I know the money management issue and its
criticality. I have lost money because of this single issue and I am
sure there will be more occasions like this in the future. I guess
it is just too hard to set aside the greed. Being honest here.
>
> Our (Me and my brother) expectation from MS is very simple, we
just want to use it to give us a short list of stocks based on
simply defined criteria. Once we have the list than look at the
charts manually, verify the company fundamentals and then get into
trades. We are definitely not Day Traders. Indian Markets are way
too volatile and full of speculators too eager to bulldoze anyone.
It is just too complex for our appetite.
>
> I have been studying a number of books, notably Murphy, Elder,
Achelis, Eng, Krefetz to name a few. I am quite OK with traditional
software development. MS programming is a different ballgame as it
deals with Time Series. So it requires a different mind set. I am
working on it.
>
> I have made my first goal in MS to define the criteria to identify
the trends and/or trading ranges. I have read about the concepts of
higher highs/lows or lower highs/lows for it. Coming from a
statistical background, I feel regression based modeling may be more
rigorous (may help eliminate the randomness a bit).
>
> This is one reason, I have been asking questions about subjective
terms like "periods", "persistently" , "mostly", and trying to get a
more quantitative aspect of qualitative items above.
>
> From this perspective, I guess comparing 10, 14/15, 20, 50 day
periods to compare the criteria to identify the list of stocks and
then manual chart reading for further action may be a reasonable
initial ground. What do you think?
>
> I am sorry that this conversation is becoming more involved and
personal, but at the same time it brings a different aspect of TA in
perspective. Sharing the ideas to help shaping a trait. I am getting
benefited by this immensely. Hopefully others will too. Also I
request other veterans of this group to pitch in their nuggets of
wisdom, just like Preston has done.
>
> I am sure that this journey will be a long and never ending one.
Also, there will be stumbling and cry for help to get through. I
would be around to ask for help and surely to provide if I am
capable of doing it.
>
> Preston, I once again thank you for your patience and guidance. I
would be needing help and I know that this group is generous enough
to provide it.
>
> Sincere Regards
>
> N
>
> ----- Original Message ----
> From: pumrysh <no_reply@xxxxxxxxxx s.com>
> To: equismetastock@ yahoogroups. com
> Sent: Thursday, April 3, 2008 6:58:42 AM
> Subject: [EquisMetaStock Group] Re: Need some help about how to
write MS Code for a rule using Aroon ...
>
> N,
>
> Being new to MS the best advice that I can give you is to study
study
> study. I'm going to guess that you are also likely new to
technical
> analysis. If indeed that is the case again my advice is study
study
> study.
>
> Most people get into TA after seeing the golden dollar signs that
> some marketeer has filled their eyes with. The truth is making
money
> trading is just not as easy as people think. I've been into
trading
> since 1996 and Metastock since 1998. In that time I have yet to
see a
> trading system that will make enormous amounts of money. There are
a
> number of issues to deal with. Money management after a trade has
> been made is far more important than getting into the trade.
Knowing
> when to exit a position is the difference between making money and
> loosing it.
>
> Metastock is a tool that you can use to make some of your
decisions a
> little easier. Understanding how to use the program really is not
> hard. The best way to learn it is by studying and practicing. We
now
> have an extensive library that goes back for quite a period of
time.
> If I were starting out I would go through the various discussions
and
> indicators that have been posted here since 1999 and at other
> forums. I would also read some of the books that have been
written.
> Try to understand what has been said and why. Look at the various
> ways of writing indicators. Check our files and links for more
useful
> resources. There is a primer there as well. You will also find
that
> Equis has a number of excellent resources and webinars to help you
to
> learn the software.
>
> I just gave you several ways of writing the Aroon. One is short
and
> sweet the other is more involved. Both yield the same results.
Why?
> If you don't know you should find out.
>
> You're also going to come across a number of different styles of
> writing indicators. All good and all serving their purpose. In the
> end you will need to determine your own style, that fits your
> trading.
>
> You will also need to determine what your trading style is. Ask
> yourself how you intend to trade. Are you going to daytrade? If so
> you will need indicators that are set at different lookback
periods.
> Are you planning to be a short term EOD trader? Your indicator
> lookback periods should reflect this.
>
> Explorations are nice for finding stock candidates but you will
also
> need to be able to read charts and to put together a trading
system.
> Using a timeframe determined by your style you should plot the
Aroons
> in a window along with a price chart and a moving average in
another
> window. Set the lookback periods all the same (I like 14 for EOD).
> Now go to the beginning of the chart and look at the Aroon signals
> and the moving average. Follow the chart from beginning to the end
or
> last date. Determine what the indicators were doing when your
> position looked favorable. This will become part of your trading
> system. The other part of the system is how you will exit a
position.
>
> Your exit is by far the most important part of your system.
Staying
> in a trade too long can cost you all the profit you made. Once you
> have a system you'll want to test the system. Use the tester for
> this. The tester in your software package is okay but you may find
> other programs such as trade sim more helpful.
>
> Don't be surprised if your system isn't very successful. I don't
know
> of very many systems that will give you a high winning percentage.
> Those systems that do win a lot make very little in the way of
> profits and you end up paying all your profit to your broker. The
> secret is to win big and loose small. So drawdowns are an
important
> part of your system. You must know how much you can afford to
loose
> on a trade and realize that you will loose. So better to be
prepared
> for it and know your limits.
>
> You asked about the Alert function. Alert(expression, periods) is
> useful for holding a condition or expression true for a set period
of
> time. So lets say you get a signal today. Alert would hold that
> signal for whatever periods you have set.
>
> Hope all this helps,
>
> Preston
>
> --- In equismetastock@ yahoogroups. com, Nand Rathi
<nand_rathi@ ...>
> wrote:
> >
> > Preston
> >
> > I am very new in MS and obviously have little experience in MS
> programming. The user manual is good but seems to be not
structured
> very well. Also, my lack of programming Time Series type of data
is a
> deterrent also. But this is my weakness which I need to overcome
and
> I am very hopeful that such a wonderful support group will be the
> catalyst in overcoming the weakness.
> >
> > Aroon is first such explorer exercise I have taken for this
> purpose. Goal is to identify securities which have been in a
strong
> trend from Aroon perspective. (More criteria will need to be added
> later).
> >
> > I agree that words like "Persistently" "Mostly" are personally
> centric. And I don't have one to begin with as I am new to this :-
( :-
> (
> >
> > To define one to suit myself, I would like to begin with the
> definitions what experts like you adopt and tweak it to suite the
> Indian market (I am in India).
> >
> > With this in mind, and obviosly looking for help from experts
like
> you I sent the help message.
> >
> > Would "13 or more" occurrences out of 20 be too strong a
definition
> of "Mostly"?
> >
> > Also, in what way "alert" will help me with the exploration. .
> >
> > Is there a "cookbook" like thing available for MS programming /
> Exploration?
> >
> > I appreciate your help very much and I am sure that this group
is
> lucky to have experts like you helping newbies like me.
> >
> > regards
> >
> > N
> >
> > ----- Original Message ----
> > From: pumrysh <no_reply@xxxxxxxxx p s.com>
> > To: equismetastock@ yahoogroups. com
> > Sent: Wednesday, April 2, 2008 5:21:00 PM
> > Subject: [EquisMetaStock Group] Re: Need some help about how to
> write MS Code for a rule using Aroon ...
> >
> > N,
> >
> > A lot of thoughts on this and a definition of mostly would be
> > helpful.
> >
> > The basics of your exploration would be:
> >
> > Column A:
> > AroonUp(20)> 70
> >
> > Column B:
> > AroonDown(20) < 30
> >
> > Once you have figured out the mostly you can place it in the
filter.
> > Maybe alert would work for you.
> >
> > Preston
> >
> > --- In equismetastock@ yahoogroups. com, Nand Rathi
> <nand_rathi@ ...>
> > wrote:
> > >
> > > Preston
> > >
> > > Thanks for the reply.
> > >
> > > I see aroonup and aroondown functions available in MS too.
> > >
> > > I want to write an explorer routine which will produce the
list
> of
> > securities as per the criteria below. How would I program this
in
> MS
> > please..
> > >
> > > In the last 20 days (bars), Aroonup has been MOSTLY between 70
> and
> > 100
> > > AND
> > > Aroondown has been MOSTLY between 0 and 30
> > >
> > > It is the "Mostly" part which I have been struggling
> > >
> > > Appreciate your help very much
> > >
> > > Regards
> > > N
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message ----
> > > From: pumrysh <no_reply@xxxxxxxxx p s.com>
> > > To: equismetastock@ yahoogroups. com
> > > Sent: Wednesday, April 2, 2008 6:54:20 AM
> > > Subject: [EquisMetaStock Group] Re: Need some help about how
to
> > write MS Code for a rule using Aroon ...
> > >
> > > N,
> > >
> > > Basically, Aroon is a day or bar counter. If you are using EOD
> then
> > a
> > > week is 5 days. The Aroon will look over the last number of
days
> > and
> > > tell you how many are up if you are using the Aroon Up
indicator.
> > > Remember that an uptrend is made up of higher highs and higher
> > lows.
> > > You would expect the Aroon Up to be above 70 percent.
> > >
> > > I am afraid that "Persistently" is a matter of personal taste
> > > dependant on your trading style.
> > >
> > > Here's some information that you may find useful.
> > >
> > > {Aroon}
> > > D:=Input("Periods" ,1,999,14) ;
> > > 100*(D-HHVBars( H,D+1))/D; {Up}
> > > 100*(D-LLVBars( L,D+1))/D; {Down}
> > >
> > > Another formula can be found here:
> > >
> > > http://trader. online.pl/ MSZ/e-w-Aroon_ Indicators. html
> > >
> > > FROM THE HELP FILES:
> > >
> > > The Aroon indicator was developed by Tushar Chande. Aroon is
> > > Sanskrit word meaning "dawn's early light" or the change from
> night
> > > to day. The Aroon indicator allows you to anticipate changes
in
> > > security prices from trending to trading range. For more
> > information
> > > on the Aroon indicator see the article written by Tushar
Chande
> in
> > > the September 1995 issue of Technical Analysis of Stocks &
> > > Commodities magazine.
> > > These changes are anticipated by measuring the number of
periods
> > that
> > > have passed since the most recent x-period high and x-period
> low.
> > > Therefore, the Aroon indicator consists of two plots; one
> measuring
> > > the number of periods since the most recent x-period high
(Aroon
> > Up)
> > > and the other measuring the number of periods since the most
> recent
> > x-
> > > period low (Aroon Down).
> > >
> > > The actual plotted value is a "stochastic" like scale (see
> > Stochastic
> > > Oscillator) ranging from 0 to 100. Assuming a default time-
> period
> > of
> > > 14 days, if a security makes a new 14-day high, the Aroon Up =
> 100;
> > > when the security makes a new 14-day low, the Aroon Down =
100.
> > When
> > > the security has not made a new high for 14 days, the Aroon Up
=
> 0;
> > > when the security has not made a new low for 14 days, the
Aroon
> > Down
> > > = 0.
> > > As explained in the interpretation section for the VHF
indicator
> > (see
> > > Vertical Horizontal Filter) the age-old problem for many
trading
> > > systems is their inability to determine if a trending or
trading
> > > range market is at hand. Trend-following indicators such as
MACD
> > and
> > > moving averages, tend to be whipsawed as markets enter a non-
> > trending
> > > congestion phase. On the other hand, overbought/oversold
> > oscillators
> > > (which work well during trading range markets) tend to
overreact
> to
> > > price pull-backs during trending markets?thereby closing a
> position
> > > prematurely. The Aroon indicator attempts to remedy this by
> > helping
> > > you determine when trend-following or overbought/oversold
> > indicators
> > > are likely to succeed.
> > >
> > > Interpretation:
> > >
> > > There are basically three conditions that you look for when
> > > interpreting the Aroon indicator: extremes at 0 and 100,
> parallel
> > > movement between Aroon Up and Aroon Down, and crossovers
between
> > > Aroon Up and Aroon Down.
> > > Extremes. When the Aroon Up line reaches 100, strength is
> > > indicated. If the Aroon Up remains persistently between 70
and
> > 100,
> > > a new uptrend is indicated. Likewise if the Aroon Down line
> > reaches
> > > 100, potential weakness is indicated. If the Aroon Down
remains
> > > persistently between 70 and 100, a new downtrend is indicated.
> > >
> > > A strong uptrend is indicated when the Aroon Up line
persistently
> > > remains between 70 and 100 while the Aroon Down line
persistently
> > > remains between 0 and 30. Likewise a strong downtrend is
> indicated
> > > when the Aroon Down line persistently remains between 70 and
100
> > > while the Aroon Up line persistently remains between 0 and 30.
> > > Parallel Movement. When the Aroon Up and Aroon Down Lines
move
> > > parallel with each other (are roughly at the same level), then
> > > consolidation is indicated. Expect further consolidation
until a
> > > directional move is indicated by an extreme level or a
crossover.
> > >
> > > Crossovers. When the Aroon Down line crosses above the Aroon
Up
> > > line, potential weakness is indicated. Expect prices to begin
> > > trending lower. When the Aroon Up line crosses above the Aroon
> Down
> > > line, potential strength is indicated. Expect prices to begin
> > > trending higher.
> > >
> > >
> > > Hope thiss helps,
> > >
> > > Preston
> > >
> > > --- In equismetastock@ yahoogroups. com, "nand_rathi"
> > <nand_rathi@ ...>
> > > wrote:
> > > >
> > > > Hello All
> > > >
> > > > Greetings
> > > >
> > > > I need help in how to program the following interpretation
(MS
> 9.1
> > > > EOD, Page 448, Aroon, Interpretation: Extreme) For Ref here
is
> the
> > > > paragraph..
> > > >
> > > > "A strong uptrend is indicated when the Aroon Up line
> persistently
> > > > remains between 70 and 100 while the Aroon Down line
> persistently
> > > > remains between 0 and 30. Likewise a strong downtrend is
> indicated
> > > > when the Aroon Down line persistently remains between 70 and
> 100
> > > while
> > > > the Aroon Up line persistently remains between 0 and 30."
> > > >
> > > > How many periods (Daily and Weekly) are required generally
to
> > define
> > > > the term "Persistently" ?
> > > >
> > > > Also, how to go about developing MS code for such a rule? I
> > intend
> > > to
> > > > use it in explorer.
> > > >
> > > > I would appreciate some kind help and/or guidance here.
> > > >
> > > > regards
> > > >
> > > > N
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > <!--
> > >
> > > #ygrp-mkp{
> > > border:1px solid #d8d8d8;font- family:Arial; margin:14px
> > 0px;padding: 0px 14px;}
> > > #ygrp-mkp hr{
> > > border:1px solid #d8d8d8;}
> > > #ygrp-mkp #hd{
> > > color:#628c2a; font-size: 85%;font- weight:bold; line-
> > height:122%; margin:10px 0px;}
> > > #ygrp-mkp #ads{
> > > margin-bottom: 10px;}
> > > #ygrp-mkp .ad{
> > > padding:0 0;}
> > > #ygrp-mkp .ad a{
> > > color:#0000ff; text-decoration: none;}
> > > -->
> > >
> > > <!--
> > >
> > > #ygrp-sponsor #ygrp-lc{
> > > font-family: Arial;}
> > > #ygrp-sponsor #ygrp-lc #hd{
> > > margin:10px 0px;font-weight: bold;font- size:78%; line-height:
> 122%;}
> > > #ygrp-sponsor #ygrp-lc .ad{
> > > margin-bottom: 10px;padding: 0 0;}
> > > -->
> > >
> > > <!--
> > >
> > > #ygrp-mlmsg {font-size:13px; font-family: arial, helvetica,
> > clean, sans-serif;}
> > > #ygrp-mlmsg table {font-size:inherit; font:100% ;}
> > > #ygrp-mlmsg select, input, textarea {font:99% arial,
helvetica,
> > clean, sans-serif;}
> > > #ygrp-mlmsg pre, code {font:115% monospace;}
> > > #ygrp-mlmsg * {line-height: 1.22em;}
> > > #ygrp-text{
> > > font-family: Georgia;
> > > }
> > > #ygrp-text p{
> > > margin:0 0 1em 0;}
> > > #ygrp-tpmsgs{
> > > font-family: Arial;
> > > clear:both;}
> > > #ygrp-vitnav{
> > > padding-top: 10px;font- family:Verdana; font-size: 77%;margin:
0;}
> > > #ygrp-vitnav a{
> > > padding:0 1px;}
> > > #ygrp-actbar{
> > > clear:both;margin: 25px 0;white-space: nowrap;color: #666;text-
> > align:right; }
> > > #ygrp-actbar .left{
> > > float:left;white- space:nowrap; }
> > > .bld{font-weight: bold;}
> > > #ygrp-grft{
> > > font-family: Verdana;font- size:77%; padding:15px 0;}
> > > #ygrp-ft{
> > > font-family: verdana;font- size:77%; border-top: 1px solid
#666;
> > > padding:5px 0;
> > > }
> > > #ygrp-mlmsg #logo{
> > > padding-bottom: 10px;}
> > >
> > > #ygrp-reco {
> > > margin-bottom: 20px;padding: 0px;}
> > > #ygrp-reco #reco-head {
> > > font-weight: bold;color: #ff7900;}
> > >
> > > #reco-grpname{
> > > font-weight: bold;margin- top:10px; }
> > > #reco-category{
> > > font-size:77% ;}
> > > #reco-desc{
> > > font-size:77% ;}
> > >
> > > #ygrp-vital{
> > > background-color: #e0ecee;margin- bottom:20px; padding:2px 0
8px
> 8px;}
> > > #ygrp-vital #vithd{
> > > font-size:77% ;font-family: Verdana;font- weight:bold;
> color:#333; text-
> > transform:uppercase ;}
> > > #ygrp-vital ul{
> > > padding:0;margin: 2px 0;}
> > > #ygrp-vital ul li{
> > > list-style-type: none;clear: both;border: 1px solid #e0ecee;
> > > }
> > > #ygrp-vital ul li .ct{
> > > font-weight: bold;color: #ff7900;float: right;width: 2em;text-
> > align:right; padding-right: .5em;}
> > > #ygrp-vital ul li .cat{
> > > font-weight: bold;}
> > > #ygrp-vital a{
> > > text-decoration: none;}
> > >
> > > #ygrp-vital a:hover{
> > > text-decoration: underline; }
> > >
> > > #ygrp-sponsor #hd{
> > > color:#999;font- size:77%; }
> > > #ygrp-sponsor #ov{
> > > padding:6px 13px;background- color:#e0ecee; margin-bottom:
20px;}
> > > #ygrp-sponsor #ov ul{
> > > padding:0 0 0 8px;margin:0; }
> > > #ygrp-sponsor #ov li{
> > > list-style-type: square;padding: 6px 0;font-size: 77%;}
> > > #ygrp-sponsor #ov li a{
> > > text-decoration: none;font- size:130% ;}
> > > #ygrp-sponsor #nc{
> > > background-color: #eee;margin- bottom:20px; padding:0 8px;}
> > > #ygrp-sponsor .ad{
> > > padding:8px 0;}
> > > #ygrp-sponsor .ad #hd1{
> > > font-family: Arial;font- weight:bold; color:#628c2a; font-
> > size:100%;line- height:122% ;}
> > > #ygrp-sponsor .ad a{
> > > text-decoration: none;}
> > > #ygrp-sponsor .ad a:hover{
> > > text-decoration: underline; }
> > > #ygrp-sponsor .ad p{
> > > margin:0;}
> > > o{font-size: 0;}
> > > .MsoNormal{
> > > margin:0 0 0 0;}
> > > #ygrp-text tt{
> > > font-size:120% ;}
> > > blockquote{margin: 0 0 0 4px;}
> > > .replbq{margin: 4;}
> > > -->
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > ____________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _
> > ____________ __
> > > You rock. That's why Blockbuster' s offering you one month of
> > Blockbuster Total Access, No Cost.
> > > http://tc.deals. yahoo.com/ tc/blockbuster/ text5.com
> > >
> > > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
> > >
> >
> >
> >
> >
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> >
> >
> >
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> >
> >
> ____________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _
> ____________ __
> > You rock. That's why Blockbuster' s offering you one month of
> Blockbuster Total Access, No Cost.
> > http://tc.deals. yahoo.com/ tc/blockbuster/ text5.com
> >
> > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
> >
>
>
>
>
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>
>
>
>
>
>
____________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _
____________ ___
> You rock. That's why Blockbuster' s offering you one month of
Blockbuster Total Access, No Cost.
> http://tc.deals. yahoo.com/ tc/blockbuster/ text5.com
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>
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____________________________________________________________________________________
You rock. That's why Blockbuster's offering you one month of Blockbuster Total Access, No Cost.
http://tc.deals.yahoo.com/tc/blockbuster/text5.com
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
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