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Preston
First, thanks a million for such a nice and down to earth email about the complex and enticing topic of Technical Analysis. I appreciate this conversation very much as it is opening access to the knowledge.
I do appreciate every point you have made and I am sure that newbies in this group will benefit from a manifesto like this.
Seriously, I am not looking at MS as a panacea. I think I know the pitfalls very well. Also, I know the money management issue and its criticality. I have lost money because of this single issue and I am sure there will be more occasions like this in the future. I guess it is just too hard to set aside the greed. Being honest here.
Our (Me and my brother) expectation from MS is very simple, we just want to use it to give us a short list of stocks based on simply defined criteria. Once we have the list than look at the charts manually, verify the company fundamentals and then get into trades. We are definitely not Day Traders. Indian Markets are way too volatile and full of speculators too eager to bulldoze anyone. It is just too complex for our appetite.
I have been studying a number of books, notably Murphy, Elder, Achelis, Eng, Krefetz to name a few. I am quite OK with traditional software development. MS programming is a different ballgame as it deals with Time Series. So it requires a different mind set. I am working on it.
I have made my first goal in MS to define the criteria to identify the trends and/or trading ranges. I have read about the concepts of higher highs/lows or lower highs/lows for it. Coming from a statistical background, I feel regression based modeling may be more rigorous (may help eliminate the randomness a bit).
This is one reason, I have been asking questions about subjective terms like "periods", "persistently", "mostly", and trying to get a more quantitative aspect of qualitative items above.
>From this perspective, I guess comparing 10, 14/15, 20, 50 day periods to compare the criteria to identify the list of stocks and then manual chart reading for further action may be a reasonable initial ground. What do you think?
I am sorry that this conversation is becoming more involved and personal, but at the same time it brings a different aspect of TA in perspective. Sharing the ideas to help shaping a trait. I am getting benefited by this immensely. Hopefully others will too. Also I request other veterans of this group to pitch in their nuggets of wisdom, just like Preston has done.
I am sure that this journey will be a long and never ending one. Also, there will be stumbling and cry for help to get through. I would be around to ask for help and surely to provide if I am capable of doing it.
Preston, I once again thank you for your patience and guidance. I would be needing help and I know that this group is generous enough to provide it.
Sincere Regards
N
----- Original Message ----
From: pumrysh <no_reply@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Thursday, April 3, 2008 6:58:42 AM
Subject: [EquisMetaStock Group] Re: Need some help about how to write MS Code for a rule using Aroon ...
N,
Being new to MS the best advice that I can give you is to study study
study. I'm going to guess that you are also likely new to technical
analysis. If indeed that is the case again my advice is study study
study.
Most people get into TA after seeing the golden dollar signs that
some marketeer has filled their eyes with. The truth is making money
trading is just not as easy as people think. I've been into trading
since 1996 and Metastock since 1998. In that time I have yet to see a
trading system that will make enormous amounts of money. There are a
number of issues to deal with. Money management after a trade has
been made is far more important than getting into the trade. Knowing
when to exit a position is the difference between making money and
loosing it.
Metastock is a tool that you can use to make some of your decisions a
little easier. Understanding how to use the program really is not
hard. The best way to learn it is by studying and practicing. We now
have an extensive library that goes back for quite a period of time.
If I were starting out I would go through the various discussions and
indicators that have been posted here since 1999 and at other
forums. I would also read some of the books that have been written.
Try to understand what has been said and why. Look at the various
ways of writing indicators. Check our files and links for more useful
resources. There is a primer there as well. You will also find that
Equis has a number of excellent resources and webinars to help you to
learn the software.
I just gave you several ways of writing the Aroon. One is short and
sweet the other is more involved. Both yield the same results. Why?
If you don't know you should find out.
You're also going to come across a number of different styles of
writing indicators. All good and all serving their purpose. In the
end you will need to determine your own style, that fits your
trading.
You will also need to determine what your trading style is. Ask
yourself how you intend to trade. Are you going to daytrade? If so
you will need indicators that are set at different lookback periods.
Are you planning to be a short term EOD trader? Your indicator
lookback periods should reflect this.
Explorations are nice for finding stock candidates but you will also
need to be able to read charts and to put together a trading system.
Using a timeframe determined by your style you should plot the Aroons
in a window along with a price chart and a moving average in another
window. Set the lookback periods all the same (I like 14 for EOD).
Now go to the beginning of the chart and look at the Aroon signals
and the moving average. Follow the chart from beginning to the end or
last date. Determine what the indicators were doing when your
position looked favorable. This will become part of your trading
system. The other part of the system is how you will exit a position.
Your exit is by far the most important part of your system. Staying
in a trade too long can cost you all the profit you made. Once you
have a system you'll want to test the system. Use the tester for
this. The tester in your software package is okay but you may find
other programs such as trade sim more helpful.
Don't be surprised if your system isn't very successful. I don't know
of very many systems that will give you a high winning percentage.
Those systems that do win a lot make very little in the way of
profits and you end up paying all your profit to your broker. The
secret is to win big and loose small. So drawdowns are an important
part of your system. You must know how much you can afford to loose
on a trade and realize that you will loose. So better to be prepared
for it and know your limits.
You asked about the Alert function. Alert(expression, periods) is
useful for holding a condition or expression true for a set period of
time. So lets say you get a signal today. Alert would hold that
signal for whatever periods you have set.
Hope all this helps,
Preston
--- In equismetastock@ yahoogroups. com, Nand Rathi <nand_rathi@ ...>
wrote:
>
> Preston
>
> I am very new in MS and obviously have little experience in MS
programming. The user manual is good but seems to be not structured
very well. Also, my lack of programming Time Series type of data is a
deterrent also. But this is my weakness which I need to overcome and
I am very hopeful that such a wonderful support group will be the
catalyst in overcoming the weakness.
>
> Aroon is first such explorer exercise I have taken for this
purpose. Goal is to identify securities which have been in a strong
trend from Aroon perspective. (More criteria will need to be added
later).
>
> I agree that words like "Persistently" "Mostly" are personally
centric. And I don't have one to begin with as I am new to this :-( :-
(
>
> To define one to suit myself, I would like to begin with the
definitions what experts like you adopt and tweak it to suite the
Indian market (I am in India).
>
> With this in mind, and obviosly looking for help from experts like
you I sent the help message.
>
> Would "13 or more" occurrences out of 20 be too strong a definition
of "Mostly"?
>
> Also, in what way "alert" will help me with the exploration. .
>
> Is there a "cookbook" like thing available for MS programming /
Exploration?
>
> I appreciate your help very much and I am sure that this group is
lucky to have experts like you helping newbies like me.
>
> regards
>
> N
>
> ----- Original Message ----
> From: pumrysh <no_reply@xxxxxxxxxx s.com>
> To: equismetastock@ yahoogroups. com
> Sent: Wednesday, April 2, 2008 5:21:00 PM
> Subject: [EquisMetaStock Group] Re: Need some help about how to
write MS Code for a rule using Aroon ...
>
> N,
>
> A lot of thoughts on this and a definition of mostly would be
> helpful.
>
> The basics of your exploration would be:
>
> Column A:
> AroonUp(20)> 70
>
> Column B:
> AroonDown(20) < 30
>
> Once you have figured out the mostly you can place it in the filter.
> Maybe alert would work for you.
>
> Preston
>
> --- In equismetastock@ yahoogroups. com, Nand Rathi
<nand_rathi@ ...>
> wrote:
> >
> > Preston
> >
> > Thanks for the reply.
> >
> > I see aroonup and aroondown functions available in MS too.
> >
> > I want to write an explorer routine which will produce the list
of
> securities as per the criteria below. How would I program this in
MS
> please..
> >
> > In the last 20 days (bars), Aroonup has been MOSTLY between 70
and
> 100
> > AND
> > Aroondown has been MOSTLY between 0 and 30
> >
> > It is the "Mostly" part which I have been struggling
> >
> > Appreciate your help very much
> >
> > Regards
> > N
> >
> > ----- Original Message ----
> > From: pumrysh <no_reply@xxxxxxxxx p s.com>
> > To: equismetastock@ yahoogroups. com
> > Sent: Wednesday, April 2, 2008 6:54:20 AM
> > Subject: [EquisMetaStock Group] Re: Need some help about how to
> write MS Code for a rule using Aroon ...
> >
> > N,
> >
> > Basically, Aroon is a day or bar counter. If you are using EOD
then
> a
> > week is 5 days. The Aroon will look over the last number of days
> and
> > tell you how many are up if you are using the Aroon Up indicator.
> > Remember that an uptrend is made up of higher highs and higher
> lows.
> > You would expect the Aroon Up to be above 70 percent.
> >
> > I am afraid that "Persistently" is a matter of personal taste
> > dependant on your trading style.
> >
> > Here's some information that you may find useful.
> >
> > {Aroon}
> > D:=Input("Periods" ,1,999,14) ;
> > 100*(D-HHVBars( H,D+1))/D; {Up}
> > 100*(D-LLVBars( L,D+1))/D; {Down}
> >
> > Another formula can be found here:
> >
> > http://trader. online.pl/ MSZ/e-w-Aroon_ Indicators. html
> >
> > FROM THE HELP FILES:
> >
> > The Aroon indicator was developed by Tushar Chande. Aroon is
> > Sanskrit word meaning "dawn's early light" or the change from
night
> > to day. The Aroon indicator allows you to anticipate changes in
> > security prices from trending to trading range. For more
> information
> > on the Aroon indicator see the article written by Tushar Chande
in
> > the September 1995 issue of Technical Analysis of Stocks &
> > Commodities magazine.
> > These changes are anticipated by measuring the number of periods
> that
> > have passed since the most recent x-period high and x-period
low.
> > Therefore, the Aroon indicator consists of two plots; one
measuring
> > the number of periods since the most recent x-period high (Aroon
> Up)
> > and the other measuring the number of periods since the most
recent
> x-
> > period low (Aroon Down).
> >
> > The actual plotted value is a "stochastic" like scale (see
> Stochastic
> > Oscillator) ranging from 0 to 100. Assuming a default time-
period
> of
> > 14 days, if a security makes a new 14-day high, the Aroon Up =
100;
> > when the security makes a new 14-day low, the Aroon Down = 100.
> When
> > the security has not made a new high for 14 days, the Aroon Up =
0;
> > when the security has not made a new low for 14 days, the Aroon
> Down
> > = 0.
> > As explained in the interpretation section for the VHF indicator
> (see
> > Vertical Horizontal Filter) the age-old problem for many trading
> > systems is their inability to determine if a trending or trading
> > range market is at hand. Trend-following indicators such as MACD
> and
> > moving averages, tend to be whipsawed as markets enter a non-
> trending
> > congestion phase. On the other hand, overbought/oversold
> oscillators
> > (which work well during trading range markets) tend to overreact
to
> > price pull-backs during trending markets?thereby closing a
position
> > prematurely. The Aroon indicator attempts to remedy this by
> helping
> > you determine when trend-following or overbought/oversold
> indicators
> > are likely to succeed.
> >
> > Interpretation:
> >
> > There are basically three conditions that you look for when
> > interpreting the Aroon indicator: extremes at 0 and 100,
parallel
> > movement between Aroon Up and Aroon Down, and crossovers between
> > Aroon Up and Aroon Down.
> > Extremes. When the Aroon Up line reaches 100, strength is
> > indicated. If the Aroon Up remains persistently between 70 and
> 100,
> > a new uptrend is indicated. Likewise if the Aroon Down line
> reaches
> > 100, potential weakness is indicated. If the Aroon Down remains
> > persistently between 70 and 100, a new downtrend is indicated.
> >
> > A strong uptrend is indicated when the Aroon Up line persistently
> > remains between 70 and 100 while the Aroon Down line persistently
> > remains between 0 and 30. Likewise a strong downtrend is
indicated
> > when the Aroon Down line persistently remains between 70 and 100
> > while the Aroon Up line persistently remains between 0 and 30.
> > Parallel Movement. When the Aroon Up and Aroon Down Lines move
> > parallel with each other (are roughly at the same level), then
> > consolidation is indicated. Expect further consolidation until a
> > directional move is indicated by an extreme level or a crossover.
> >
> > Crossovers. When the Aroon Down line crosses above the Aroon Up
> > line, potential weakness is indicated. Expect prices to begin
> > trending lower. When the Aroon Up line crosses above the Aroon
Down
> > line, potential strength is indicated. Expect prices to begin
> > trending higher.
> >
> >
> > Hope thiss helps,
> >
> > Preston
> >
> > --- In equismetastock@ yahoogroups. com, "nand_rathi"
> <nand_rathi@ ...>
> > wrote:
> > >
> > > Hello All
> > >
> > > Greetings
> > >
> > > I need help in how to program the following interpretation (MS
9.1
> > > EOD, Page 448, Aroon, Interpretation: Extreme) For Ref here is
the
> > > paragraph..
> > >
> > > "A strong uptrend is indicated when the Aroon Up line
persistently
> > > remains between 70 and 100 while the Aroon Down line
persistently
> > > remains between 0 and 30. Likewise a strong downtrend is
indicated
> > > when the Aroon Down line persistently remains between 70 and
100
> > while
> > > the Aroon Up line persistently remains between 0 and 30."
> > >
> > > How many periods (Daily and Weekly) are required generally to
> define
> > > the term "Persistently" ?
> > >
> > > Also, how to go about developing MS code for such a rule? I
> intend
> > to
> > > use it in explorer.
> > >
> > > I would appreciate some kind help and/or guidance here.
> > >
> > > regards
> > >
> > > N
> > >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > <!--
> >
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> >
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> > margin-bottom: 20px;padding: 0px;}
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> > font-weight: bold;color: #ff7900;}
> >
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> > font-size:77% ;}
> >
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> > background-color: #e0ecee;margin- bottom:20px; padding:2px 0 8px
8px;}
> > #ygrp-vital #vithd{
> > font-size:77% ;font-family: Verdana;font- weight:bold;
color:#333; text-
> transform:uppercase ;}
> > #ygrp-vital ul{
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> > }
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> > font-weight: bold;color: #ff7900;float: right;width: 2em;text-
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> > #ygrp-vital ul li .cat{
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> >
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> > .replbq{margin: 4;}
> > -->
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> ____________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _
> ____________ __
> > You rock. That's why Blockbuster' s offering you one month of
> Blockbuster Total Access, No Cost.
> > http://tc.deals. yahoo.com/ tc/blockbuster/ text5.com
> >
> > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
> >
>
>
>
>
> <!--
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____________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _________ _
____________ __
> You rock. That's why Blockbuster' s offering you one month of
Blockbuster Total Access, No Cost.
> http://tc.deals. yahoo.com/ tc/blockbuster/ text5.com
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>
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____________________________________________________________________________________
You rock. That's why Blockbuster's offering you one month of Blockbuster Total Access, No Cost.
http://tc.deals.yahoo.com/tc/blockbuster/text5.com
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
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