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Dear Super,
Thank you for your comments about testing and statistical significance. Valid of course.
I am not trying to make a case for lunar indicators as a "system" any more than I would
attempt to make a case for using a normal calendar as a stand alone trading system.
>From work I did on various timing-based system components a few years ago,
it appeared that lunar calendar signals on their own work slightly worse than a system
based on the ordinary calendar. Neither of these are useful on their own, but both may
potentially provide some additional input if you already have a working system.
The purpose of my "support for the lunar indicator" email was not to try to convince you,
your dog, or anyone else to use lunar indicators as a substitute for other methods. However,
for anyone who might be interested, lunar indicators are no more "loony" than calendars &
seasonals are, and plenty of commodity traders make good use of seasonals. There's a reasonable
(but not statistically rigorous) treatment of timing effects in "The Almanac Investor" by J.A.Hirsch & J.T.Brown .... just in case your dog might want to learn about them (and if he/she doesn't, that's OK too).
Regards,
Tony Morland
=====================
----- Original Message ----
From: superfragalist <no_reply@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Monday, May 28, 2007 10:03:12 PM
Subject: [EquisMetaStock Group] Lunar Indicator Debate
Tony, rather than putting forth your support for lunar indicators by
presenting subjective logic, it would be more interesting if you had
tested it and could present test results showing the lunar indicators
have a statistically significant performance improvement over other
indicators.
If you do your testing properly, then you have objective data and
depending on the results the debate may be over.
I see lots of rationally presented explanations of why certain
indicaotrs work great, along with testimony to their effectiveness.
However, when those presenting the case for indicator X are asked for
objective test data, they don't have any, or it's based on a very
selective period in the market.
When the market is in an uptrend and 60% to 80% of all stocks are
going up, nearly every indicator can pick winners 50% of the time. My
dog picks good stocks when the market is in an uptrend. Over the last
two months, my dog's portfolio is up 20%. I'm trying to get my dog a
job with a hedge fund. Then I don't have to work anymore.
Do some tests and post the results. That will support your case.
Super
--- In equismetastock@ yahoogroups. com, Tony M <t4tonym@xxx > wrote:
>
> Dear Metastock collegues,
>
> Maybe this is "old news" to some, but having seen & heard a lot of
criticism of "lunar indicators" by those who do
> not believe in astrology, I would like to share with you the
following defence of the lunar indicator.
>
> In addition to seeing charts that show that sometimes it works, I
always feel a lot more comfortable personally when using an
> indicator if there is also some fundamental justification of why it
should work, not just in terms of the computational algorithm,
> but in terms of some underlying physical or economic principle. The
justification for the lunar indicator is as follows:
>
> In many cases, money flows into and out of the market at or around
certain specific dates. For example,
> the "January effect", or the effect of tax selling before the end of
the financial years (different in USA & Australia),
> or the "window dressing" effect of investment institutions
re-adjusting their portfolios at the end of each quarter,
> or of new funds being allocated at the beginning of the month, etc.
The dates of these occurrences are based on
> the standard internationally accepted Gregorian calendar, or its
near equivalent the Fiscal calendar,
> in which week 1 of the year starts based on the week containing 4
January.
>
> These are the calendars we all know, but Islamic countries and
people use the Hijjri Calendar, either in addition to,
> or in some cases instead of the international standard Gregorian
calendar.
> The Hijri calendar also has 12 months, but these months are either
29 or 30 days long,
> so the total length of the Hijri year is 354 days, not 365 days. The
Hijri or Islamic calendar is a LUNAR
> calendar. The first day of each month of this calendar was
traditionally based on the "hilal" or first sighting of the lunar
> crescent or new moon. For widespread general use in modern times,
the Tabular Islamic Calendar calculates the Hijri
> date based on arithmetic rules. More info about this can be found on
various web sites such as:
> http://www.rabiah. com/convert/ introduction. html,
http://www.phys. uu.nl/~vgent/ islam/islam_ tabcal.htm,
> http://www.islamicf inder.org/ dateConversion. php or
http://www.fourmila b.ch/documents/ calendar/
>
> Basically, any lunar indicator which is calculating the time of the
new moon is in fact also calculating the start date of
> each Islamic month (and the following full moon then corresponds to
the middle of the corresponding month).
> A number of Islamic countries (e.g. the Arabian Gulf states and
others) have great financial strength and are actively involved in
trading and investment.
> For example Kuwait, well known as one of the world's major oil
producing countries, now generates as much from its international
> investments as it does from oil (ref.
http://www.kuwaitna toconference. com/secondary. asp?Page= 3).
> Investment timing decisions of financially important countries or
individuals are likely to be based on the calendar,
> but in some cases this may be the Hijri (lunar) calendar rather than
the Gregorian calendar.
>
> Although the date (in the standard Gregorian calendar system) is not
always a good predictor of price movements, it does at least
> make sense to consider the possibility of timing effects based on
money flows. When considering the international investment world,
> these timing effects are likely to be not only according to the
standard Gregorian calendar but also on the Hijri calendar, which is
lunar.
>
> In conclusion, there is a very good fundamental reason to take
seriously the concept of the lunar (or equivalent Hijri calendar)
indicator.
>
>
> with best regards
> from Tony M.
> (still in Moscow)
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> ----- Original Message ----
> From: pumrysh <no_reply@xxxxxxxxxx s.com>
> To: equismetastock@ yahoogroups. com
> Sent: Friday, May 25, 2007 8:29:34 PM
> Subject: [EquisMetaStock Group] Re: Lunar Indicator
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> http://finance. groups.yahoo. com/group/ equismetastock/
message/24199
>
>
>
> --- In equismetastock@ yahoogroups. com, Claud Baruch <claudb@> wrote:
>
> >
>
> > In switching to a new computer, I lost the Lunar indicator I've been
>
> > using for many years.
>
> > If anyone has the formula language for that indicator, it would be
>
> > greatly appreciated.
>
> >
>
> > Claud
>
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