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Dear Metastock collegues,
Maybe this is "old news" to some, but having seen & heard a lot of criticism of "lunar indicators" by those who do
not believe in astrology, I would like to share with you the following defence of the lunar indicator.
In addition to seeing charts that show that sometimes it works, I always feel a lot more comfortable personally when using an
indicator if there is also some fundamental justification of why it should work, not just in terms of the computational algorithm,
but in terms of some underlying physical or economic principle. The justification for the lunar indicator is as follows:
In many cases, money flows into and out of the market at or around certain specific dates. For example,
the "January effect", or the effect of tax selling before the end of the financial years (different in USA & Australia),
or the "window dressing" effect of investment institutions re-adjusting their portfolios at the end of each quarter,
or of new funds being allocated at the beginning of the month, etc. The dates of these occurrences are based on
the standard internationally accepted Gregorian calendar, or its near equivalent the Fiscal calendar,
in which week 1 of the year starts based on the week containing 4 January.
These are the calendars we all know, but Islamic countries and people use the Hijjri Calendar, either in addition to,
or in some cases instead of the international standard Gregorian calendar.
The Hijri calendar also has 12 months, but these months are either 29 or 30 days long,
so the total length of the Hijri year is 354 days, not 365 days. The Hijri or Islamic calendar is a LUNAR
calendar. The first day of each month of this calendar was traditionally based on the "hilal" or first sighting of the lunar
crescent or new moon. For widespread general use in modern times, the Tabular Islamic Calendar calculates the Hijri
date based on arithmetic rules. More info about this can be found on various web sites such as:
http://www.rabiah.com/convert/introduction.html, http://www.phys.uu.nl/~vgent/islam/islam_tabcal.htm,
http://www.islamicfinder.org/dateConversion.php or http://www.fourmilab.ch/documents/calendar/
Basically, any lunar indicator which is calculating the time of the new moon is in fact also calculating the start date of
each Islamic month (and the following full moon then corresponds to the middle of the corresponding month).
A number of Islamic countries (e.g. the Arabian Gulf states and others) have great financial strength and are actively involved in trading and investment.
For example Kuwait, well known as one of the world's major oil producing countries, now generates as much from its international
investments as it does from oil (ref. http://www.kuwaitnatoconference.com/secondary.asp?Page=3).
Investment timing decisions of financially important countries or individuals are likely to be based on the calendar,
but in some cases this may be the Hijri (lunar) calendar rather than the Gregorian calendar.
Although the date (in the standard Gregorian calendar system) is not always a good predictor of price movements, it does at least
make sense to consider the possibility of timing effects based on money flows. When considering the international investment world,
these timing effects are likely to be not only according to the standard Gregorian calendar but also on the Hijri calendar, which is lunar.
In conclusion, there is a very good fundamental reason to take seriously the concept of the lunar (or equivalent Hijri calendar) indicator.
with best regards
from Tony M.
(still in Moscow)
----- Original Message ----
From: pumrysh <no_reply@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Friday, May 25, 2007 8:29:34 PM
Subject: [EquisMetaStock Group] Re: Lunar Indicator
http://finance. groups.yahoo. com/group/ equismetastock/ message/24199
--- In equismetastock@ yahoogroups. com, Claud Baruch <claudb@xxx> wrote:
>
> In switching to a new computer, I lost the Lunar indicator I've been
> using for many years.
> If anyone has the formula language for that indicator, it would be
> greatly appreciated.
>
> Claud
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