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[EquisMetaStock Group] Re: indicator set development



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Thanks TA4me - good informative post.


jose '-)
http://www.metastocktools.com




--- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "taforme" <taforme@xxx> wrote:
>
> I see many postings about individual indicators, but few about how a 
> complete trading signal is constructed using a set of indicators.  
> Here are my suggestions based on EOD trading.
> 
> I have found that higher probability trading signals are best 
> constructed with a few indicators, each with a different 
> characteristic.  I prefer to use one indicator of each type: cycle 
> based, volume influenced, and market breadth.
> 
> Cycle.  This could be a stochastic, or the cycles per Walter 
> Bressert.  I like to see how two of these are acting, each with a 
> different look-back period, e.g. 5 and 10 bars.  Even in an extended 
> trend, cycles can work.
> 
> Volume influenced.  Chaikin volume, OBV or Twiggs volume (google for 
> it) can serve this purpose.
> 
> Market breadth.  An advance/decline measurement or new highs vs. new 
> lows will do.
> 
> Once you have settled on a set of indicators, study how each of the 
> indictors in the set act over time for securities you want to trade.  
> Open a window with each of the indiators in an inner window and see 
> how each acts over many years  for the securities of interest.  Get 
> to know subtle characteristics of each indiator.  You will want to 
> spend at least several months of 2 hours per day.  
> 
> I tend to trade stock indices, e.g. Dow Jones, NASDAQ 100 and Russell 
> 2000, on a few day swing basis.  I have studied my set of indicators 
> over years of price action for these.  Determine what weighting you 
> will give to each indicator. You also have to determine the time 
> frame of interest for your trading, and tune the periods associated 
> with the indicators for it.  Now, you can refine your understanding 
> of how/to what degree price predictive behavior can be discerned 
> based on the interaction of indicators in the set.  Then backtest 
> and/or forward walk to confirm that the set can be profitably traded.
> 
> Example.  I shorted the NQ-100 (futures) just before the normal hours 
> market close on
>  Feb. 23, 2007 and closed the short at the close on Feb. 27, 2007.  
> This was an unleverage move of about 4.5%.
> 
> Why the entry?
> 
> My A/D indicator had been at a relative peak and was starting to roll 
> over; my volume based indicator was also moving down from a relative 
> high level; my cycle indictor was also just starting to roll over 
> from a high.  There are several further subtle interpretations that 
> influenced the trade entry.
> 
> Why the exit?
> 
> Normally I would have waited for a confirmation from the set, 
> considered as a whole which was not present.  However, with a lot of 
> profit on the table and with a subtle interpretation of the 
> interaction of my two cycle indictors, I was guessing that there was 
> a substantial likelihood of a bounce the next day.  So I exited, 
> ahead of the normal exit.
> 
> My trades are not all profitable.  But substantially more trades make 
> money and the $profit/$loss is well above 1.
> 
> I have nothing to sell - no services or products.  I am making this 
> posting as a contribution for those who may find something of use 
> from it.




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