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While beauty may be in the eye of the beholder, the best comment in
the discussion is that every plug-in, add-on and ancillary trading
tool should come with broad based, statistically sound test results
showing exactly how it should be used to make money.
However, that is never going to happen.
I've mentioned Aronson's book Evidence-Based Technical Analysis. There
is a very good explanation of why a lot of TA tools work well
occasionally but not very well over the long term. In addition he does
a pretty good job of telling you why you aren't going to see any test
results worth anything on add-on products.
TA vendors, add-on sellers and plug-in creators, including Equis and
all the others, count on several principles.
PT Barnum, one of the foremost marketers of the 19th century, said,
"There's a sucker born every minute."
Couple that with "even a blind squirrel can find an acorn sometimes"
and "a broken clock is right twice a day" and you have all kinds of
systems that can identify potential winning trades--occasionally.
Thirty five years ago when I first became familiar with TA, I hoped it
would provide a key to making money in the market.
I learned to program on an IBM 1620 computer, which was introduced in
1959 and was slower than my HP calculator is now by a factor of at
least a 1000. I got my hands on one in 1968. In 1970 I moved up to an
IBM Model 360. And now I've got my Dell XPS710 which is faster than
the first few versions of the supercomputers built in the 1960's and
70's by Seymour Cray using scalar processors.
The point is even with all this computing power, and despite running a
a whole lot of tests over that time period, I've found only a few
things that work consistently well over long periods of time. Once
in-a-while I've posted the those test results.
Like a lot of people I started out looking for a mechanical system
that would make all of my trading system decisions for me. I looked at
all of the systems on the market that I could find, I talked to people
who used them and I tried when possible to test them myself. Then in
the 1990's I learned of a few hedge fund companies that were
developing mechanical trading systems to trade multiple markets at the
same time. Trading multiple markets is relative risk reducing
technique, but it's hard for small traders to implement effectively.
I learned that the hedge funds had several highly paid systems
developers constantly developing new systems and retesting old ones.
At first I thought they were looking for "better system performance".
However, as I started to talk to more of their managers I found out
that they continued to develop systems, not so much to find better
ones, but because they had to constantly replace systems that lost the
ability to perform. Their conclusion was a mechanical system will
perform well for some specific period of time and then its performance
will decline for a variety of reasons. It has to be replaced with a
new system that is performing well in the current environment, so the
funds were constantly developing, testing and replacing systems.
This says a lot about the value of a mechanical system for small
traders. You can interrput the hedge fund methods for yourself. I just
don't bother looking for mechanical systems anymore.
I've tried to test all of the tools I've run across over the years.
Some can't be tested effectively. Some tests require tools I don't
have, and some aren't worth my time.
No matter how well something is tested, someone else will always be
able to cast doubt on the results. No test is perfect. That's the
nature of statistical testing. (Mocking is always a good technique to
cast doubt. Particularly humorous mocking. It diverts attention from
the facts.)
The bottom line for me is 99% of the TA tools, including the stuff
written about by the guru's and the people that a lot of small traders
look up to, don't work well enough to count on or bother with.
The price has got nothing to do with how well something works. There
is no correlaton or relationship at all as far as I've seen.
In the US it's a free, capitalistic market so anyone should be able to
sell almost anything for whatever price they can get for it.
Every product will have its supporters and detractors. There are
people who believe UFO's land regularly, that they know someone who
has a ghost in their house, and that there are people who can talk to
the dead.
Not every product is usable by everyone. That's why they put warning
labels on toasters telling people not to put there tongues in the
slots, and of course we need to be told that we shouldn't put our cats
in the microwave to dry them off after a bath, and our cars have to
have 10 ugly permanent stickers to tell us we've got airbags in the
vehicle and airbags can wallop the crap out of us.
Nothing is safe in the wrong hands. And if something does go wrong,
it's never the user's fault. That's modern life. Narcissism dominates.
So the bottom line for me is--use whatever works for you and pay
whatever you think it's worth! There are only two outcomes. You'll
think it was a good deal, or you'll think it was a bad deal. Every
prince was a frog, and all frogs have warts.
I just like to put my money into what works consistently for me over
the long run and which I can back up with reliable test results.
--- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, a a <swptec@xxx> wrote:
>
> Hi Eduardo,
>
> I was merely voicing my opinion, I don't think it merits a comment
such as "Get Lost".
>
> Your analogy of a butcher and supermarket is not correct. There
you can see beforehand the stuff you are buying. In any case the cost
is low and you can try both before settling down into a preference.
>
> With so many add ons available claiming to achieve all sorts of
wonderful things, one has to shoot "blind" i.e buy something first for
$ 1000 and then try it and maybe lose some money trying it. So the the
awards and the relative cost become important.
>
> Maybe you could tell me what kind of money (in percentage terms
per annum and over how many years) you manage to make from URSC to
help me make up my mind. Also how many other add ons you have tried
(and perhaps) abandoned and how much money you lost trying them.
>
> You have the benefit of experience, I don't.
>
> Thanks.
>
> Eduardo Gontan Pulgarin <con051204@xxx> wrote:
> What a strange post; so, if I went, say, to my butcher,
and told him to set his prices to what the supermarket charges, on the
ground that his beef is not an award winner, and that increase in
sales will make up for the diffference in price, what answer should I
expect?
> You have got a funny way of looking at life, mate; if you can't
afford it, then do as I have done for a long time - don't buy it!
> When I bought Jose's URSC kit, I couldn't care less about how much
other add-ons cost, or if it was an award winning one; I cannot speak
for other users, of course, but I would be surprised if they didn't
feel like I do!
> The kit does what it says it does; Jose's support is terrific -
sometimes I get an answer to my e-mail within minutes, I live in UK
and Jose in Thailand; that's the other side of the world, for you! Any
coding query is dealt with swiftly, at no charge; and I have seen some
silly ones! No matter, they are answered, and promptly!
> Do you find this is the case with other add-ons suppliers?
> People find Jose a dependable developper, and his products work; as
a result, I think that Jose is well entitled to charge what he sees
fit, don't you think?
> I am not Jose, but quite frankly, if I was, I would tell you to get
lost!
>
> Eduardo.
>
>
> a a <swptec@xxx> wrote:
> Hi Jose,
>
> URSC kit + MACDH kit will set a person back US $ 1040, more than the
cost of Metastock 10 EOD. A lot of people, myself included, simply
cannot even think of such an expensive add on. Kindly re-look your
prices and bring them at par with other add-ons. Increased sales will
offset reduction in price. Let us not forget that your stuff is not
even a nominee in TASC awards, let alone being an award winner.
>
> Thanks.
>
> Jose Silva <josesilva22@xxx> wrote:
> Eric, price for the URSC tool-kit is Eur 395.
> See here for price in other currencies:
> http://www.metastocktools.com/URSC/URSC.htm
>
> The URSC kit has many useful tools, but does not come with the
Long/Short
> SmartStop Initial/Trailing stop found in the Divergence kit:
> http://www.metastocktools.com/MACDH/MACDHdiverg.htm
>
> For risk-normalized backtesting tools found with the URSC kit, see this
> article on Trading System Evaluation/Development Tools:
>
> http://www.metastocktools.com/URSC/sysdev.htm
> http://www.metastocktools.com/URSC/sysdev2.htm
>
> jose '-)
> http://www.metastocktools.com
>
> --- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "erc90" <erc90@> wrote:
> >
> > Jose,
> >
> > What is the price? Are we able to set stop loss orders using the URSC
> > DDLs? I wish to back test using the explorer or the system tester.
> >
> > Eric
>
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