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Are we having wine or coffee?:-)
I would go for strategy Y.
Preston
--- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Jose Silva" <josesilva22@xxx>
wrote:
>
>
> Hmmm... perhaps I've made it sound more complicated than it needs
to
> be.
>
> Imagine it's 7pm in the evening, 3 hours after market close, and
the
> day's final data arrives. We now know today's Open, High, Low and
> Close of the day with 100% certainty.
>
> We look at our finalized data, and find that today our favorite
stock
> has closed within 4% of today's High. Our decision now is:
>
> 1) Go Long at tomorrow's Open (strategy Y).
>
> OR
>
> 2) Go Short at tomorrow's Open (strategy X).
>
>
> Which strategy is more likely to be profitable in the long run?
>
> ---------------------------------------------
>
> Strategy Y:
> ==========
>
> * Buy Long at tomorrow's Open if today's Close was within
> 4% of today's High.
>
> * Sell Long at tomorrow's Open if today's Close was within
> 4% of today's Low.
>
>
> Strategy X:
> ==========
>
> * Buy Long at tomorrow's Open if today's Close was within
> 4% of today's Low.
>
> * Sell Long at tomorrow's Open if today's Close was within
> 4% of today's High.
>
> ---------------------------------------------
>
>
> Y is basically a short-term trend-following strategy.
> X is basically a short-term contrarian strategy.
>
> So, which strategy is more likely to be profitable in the long run,
Y
> or X?
>
>
> jose '-)
> http://www.metastocktools.com
>
>
>
>
> --- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, pumrysh <no_reply@> wrote:
> >
> > Exactly my point...we just don't know so always use stops.:-)
> >
> > Preston
> >
> >
> >
> > --- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Jose Silva"
<josesilva22@>
> > wrote:
> >
> > "Buy Long at next day's Open..."
> >
> > No hindsight required.
> >
> > No unknowns, no known unknowns, no unknown knowns, no unknown
> > unknowns. (With apologies to that great poet, Donald Rumsfeld) ;)
> > http://www.windsofchange.net/archives/003282.php
> >
> >
> > jose '-)
> > http://metastocktools.com
> >
> >
> >
> > --- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, pumrysh <no_reply@> wrote:
> >
> > Jose,
> >
> > Poses some interesting thoughts but IMO there are only 2 events
> > that you will know...the open and the close. The low and high will
> > not be known until after the open and right at the close. As far
> > as the profit it would be nice if we knew the trend. Since
> > everything is unknown my answer would be:
> > 4) I don't know
> >
> > Preston
> >
> >
> >
> > --- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Jose Silva"
> > <josesilva22@> wrote:
> >
> > I've posted this poll on another usergroup, but it is currently
> > attracting little interest there. The question deals with our
> > perception of the market vs its reality.
> >
> > I can't post a Poll here, but it would be interesting to get some
> > informal results of members' opinions.
> >
> >
> > ----------------------------------------------
> >
> > Strategy Y:
> >
> > Buy Long when Close is within 4% of today's High.
> > (Buy Long at next day's Open when the Close is near the top of
> > today's High-Low range).
> >
> > Sell Long when Close is within 4% of today's Low
> > (Sell Long at next day's Open when the Close is near the bottom
of
> > today's High-Low range).
> >
> >
> > Strategy X (Y reversed):
> >
> > Buy Long when Close is within 4% of today's Low
> > (Buy Long at next day's Open when the Close is near the bottom of
> > today's High-Low range).
> >
> > Sell Long when Close is within 4% of today's High.
> > (Sell Long at next day's Open when the Close is near the top of
> > today's High-Low range).
> >
> >
> > Question:
> > Which trading strategy is likely to be more profitable, Y or X?
> >
> > 1) Strategy Y
> > 2) Strategy X
> > 3) no difference - both are identical
> > 4) I don't know
> >
> > ----------------------------------------------
> >
> >
> > To make it easier to visualize the simple condition signals,
below
> > is the MS indicator code:
> >
> > ==============
> > Poll indicator
> > ==============
> > ----8<-------------------------------------
> >
> > {©Copyright 2006 Jose Silva.
> > For personal use only - trade at own risk.
> > http://metastocktools.com }
> >
> > { User inputs }
> > pr1:=Input("Entry: min Close's % dist [0~100%] from bar's
> > Low",0,100,4)/100;
> > pr2:=Input("Exit: min Close's % dist [0~100%] from bar's
> > High",0,100,4)/100;
> > rev:=Input("Reverse Close position condition? [0]No,
> > [1]Yes",0,1,0) ;
> > plot:=Input("Signals: [1]Clean, [2]All, [3]Trade
> > binary",1,3,1);
> > delay:=Input("Entry and Exit delay",0,5,0);
> >
> > { Close x% of High-Low range signals }
> > rangePos:=(C-L)/Max(H-L,.00001);
> > entry1:=rangePos<=pr1;
> > exit1:=rangePos>=(1-pr2);
> >
> > { Reverse signals? }
> > entry:=If(rev,exit1,entry1);
> > exit:=If(rev,entry1,exit1);
> >
> > { Clean signals }
> > init:=Cum(IsDefined(entry+exit))=1;
> > bin:=ValueWhen(1,entry-exit<>0 OR init,entry);
> > long:=bin*(Alert(bin=0,2)
> > OR entry*Cum(entry)=1);
> > short:=(bin=0)*(Alert(bin,2)
> > OR exit*Cum(exit)=1);
> > signals:=long-short;
> >
> > { Plot in own window }
> > 0;
> > Ref(If(plot=2,entry,0),-delay);
> > Ref(If(plot=1,signals,
> > If(plot=2,-exit,bin)),-delay)
> >
> > ----8<-------------------------------------
> >
> >
> > jose '-)
> > http://metastocktools.com
>
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