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In the August 2006 edition of TASC there was an article
titled, "It's in The Sentiment", describing a relationship between a
sentiment index created from 15 Rydex Sector funds and future
returns of the S&P500.
For those of you in this group who've considered but not made the
commitment to Roy's Metastock Tips & Tools newsletter here is an
example of it's extraordiary value to you as a subscriber.
While I've been sitting at my computer today watching my trades go
nowhere awaiting the Fed decision I modified Roy's code
for "Creating Advance/Decline History Files" published in the
November 2005 issue to create the plot of the Rydex sentiment index.
As easy as copying the existing indicators and explorations and
changing the names of few variables.
I've posted a .gif file titled, "Rydex Sentiment vs S&P500", showing
the relationship between the Rydex Sentiment (red line - amount of
funds closing below their 25 day moving average) and the S&P500
(black line).
Looking at the chart, there appears to me something in Mr. Jani's
claim that there is "...a clear but nonlinear relationship with
future returns. And that is usually a good place to start to develop
a market timing system."
Enjoy,
Lee
(Sorry for the Hypersnap stamps but I used up my evaluation period
on the software and haven't got around to purchasing the license
copy.)
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