|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Jose
Just a side note. The US dollar will probably start to fall in earnest when
the interest rates plateau or fall
Martin Blain
http://www.saddleworx.com
http://www.martinblain.com
----- Original Message -----
From: "Alexander Atreides" <alexatreides@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, April 12, 2006 6:39 AM
Subject: Re: [EquisMetaStock Group] US$ value index - the true picture
> Jose,
>
> This is indeed a good PROXY to measure strength in
> economy and "real" wealth.
>
> Truth is goverments have done everything they could so
> at to cover the real picture. The name of the game is:
> Debt. This is the currency for the new century. Not
> having debt means you cannot exist. And yes, I
> completely agree with you that currencies are fiat.
> All. Every sunrise, an invisible "machine" adds wealth
> to the capital centers, in the form of interest. To me
> it looks like this "virtual" wealth has surpassed in
> magnitude the true wealth of the planet. And that is a
> "crital condition" as chaos-oriented scolars would put
> it.
>
> Your effort is genuinely clever, although
> statistitians may argue that such analysis would
> further need to be refined with some "correlation" and
> "autocorrelation" filters. And even then, it would
> just be a statistical model, open to interpretation
> and propability.
>
> Thank for your idea.
>
> AlexAtreides
>
> P.S.: I trade debt for a living. We call it "fixed
> income" (sic). I am certified asset manager.
>
>
> --- Jose Silva <josesilva22@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>
>> So, the markets are in a raging bull mode, and
>> stories abound of +10%
>> profits for this year. Time to put things into some
>> perspective.
>>
>> US$ purchasing power, as measured against a basket
>> of commodities:
>>
>> since Jan 1st 2006: -11.5% (!)
>> since Jan 1st 2000: -49.2%
>> annualized: -7.9%pa
>>
>>
>> From:
>> http://www.metastocktools.com/#USindex
>>
>> The US dollar is universally considered an absolute
>> yardstick - most
>> of the world's wealth is measured against it.
>>
>> Yet, the mighty US$ is a fiat currency, a
>> paper-based measurement of
>> wealth with nothing but good faith to back its
>> perceived value. The
>> US$ is only worth as much as any other promissory
>> note, and its worth
>> is being continually diluted and devalued as the US
>> Federal Reserve
>> Bank continues to print more notes at an alarmingly
>> accelerating pace.
>>
>> The true value of the US$ cannot be measured against
>> other currencies,
>> as these are also likely to originate from
>> overworked government
>> printing presses. A true and objective measurement
>> of the US$'s real
>> value would be its purchasing power at any given
>> time.
>>
>> The US$ value index above is basically a measurement
>> of the
>> greenback's (decreasing) purchasing power. The index
>> measure the US$'s
>> rate of change (RoC) against a small but essential
>> basket of
>> commodities:
>>
>> Gold: putting aside temporary fluctuations, it is as
>> close to an
>> absolute and constant measurement of wealth as can
>> be found. An ounce
>> of gold took as many working hours to purchase 80
>> years ago, as it
>> does today with an average wage.
>>
>> Oil: currently a most essential source of energy -
>> civilization as we
>> know it would cease to exist without it.
>>
>> Wheat: one of the major sources of food for an
>> increasingly hungry
>> world.
>>
>> US$ value index:
>> (RoC(US$/Gold)+RoC(US$/Oil)+RoC(US$/Wheat))/3
>>
>>
>>
>> So, what does the US$ value index mean in real
>> terms?
>>
>> � Since the start of year 2000, the US$'s
> purchasing
>> power has halved.
>> $1,000 saved in Jan 2000, now buys around $500 worth
>> of goods.
>>
>> � US's real inflation is being massively
>> under-reported, and in
>> reality is closer to 8%pa.
>>
>> � The US stock market's true worth is much lower
>> than generally
>> perceived by the public.
>>
>> The bottom line is that storing one's wealth in US$
>> (or any other
>> paper currency) is a recipe for diminishing returns.
>>
>> Keep an eye on the US$ value index, for a true
>> measure of the world's
>> default currency and all that is measured against
>> it.
>>
>>
>> jose '-)
>> http://www.metastocktools.com/#USindex
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>
>
> __________________________________________________
> Do You Yahoo!?
> Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around
> http://mail.yahoo.com
>
>
>
> Yahoo! Groups Links
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
Yahoo! Groups Links
<*> To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/equismetastock/
<*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
equismetastock-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
<*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
|