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Bob, I hope I don't shock you, but
I've decided to take your advice. I am going to subscribe to Roy's newsletter,
plus the back issues. I looked over the sample and it was great. Now if I don't
learn anything, I am going to blame you! :)
Gary
From: Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
[mailto:Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of Bob
Sent:
Friday, August 26, 2005 1:44 AM
To:
Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [Metastockusers] More Feedback
on Trading Slim
Okay, you found out that most people like TradeSim. What more do
you
need to know?
You can buy the cheaper version and work your way
up.
If you're going to sweat spending $300 on tools by trying to make
the
perfect decision, read my first post again and forget trading.
Nothing
in trading is a perfect decision. Far from it.
As I
explained, newbie trader's have no idea how to do systems testing
so what
difference does it make what they use to do it with. It takes
a trader
several years and a light year or two of education to figure
out how to
setup, do and read a system's test properly. In addition,
if you don't
understand how market conditions impact tests and how to
design in sample and
out sample data to figure that out, your results
are going to be
suspect.
I'm not saying newbie's shouldn't do systems tests. It's part of
the
learning curve. However, I am saying the test results are baloney
for
the first few years, and even when they're done right, live trading
is
different and often unrelated.
I keep telling you to read Roy's
newsletter. I can see you intend to
ignore that advice. Roy is going to do an
indepth review of TradeSim
later this year. In addition, he'll tell you how
to use the system's
tester, and there are articles in there that might just
give you some
"real" insight into trading. Believe me if you're curious
about
Performance Systems as a plug-in you need to learn everything in
Roy's
newsletter as soon as possible. It will save you a lot of
money
chasing bad ideas.
There's some fundemental knowledge in there
about how trading works
that every trader should learn first thing. Most
figure it out after
many years. It's seems like such common sense, but
believe me it's not.
Monte Carlo simulation is another issue altogether.
Ninety percent of
the Monte Carlo simulators I see are poor applicaitons of
the
principle. In the first place the only way you can get
accurate
results from Monte Carlo simulation is by putting in the stats
from
live trading. When you run a system's test you don't have the
results
from live trading, you have "theoretical results" so you get
a
theoretical Monte Carlo simulation. That won't buy you much.
I
don't mean to be rude, but you're really putting the cart before the
horse.
You need to learn to trade before you worry about systems
testing, muchless
Monte Carlo simulation.
There are three articles in Roy's newsletter on
trading the IBD that
will get you trading and maybe teach you how to make
some money sooner
rather than later. It's the simplest trading technique for
making
money that I've seen. Start there. You won't need plug-ins,etc.
Then
when you've been doing that successfully for awhile you can
worry
about systems testing and Monte Carlo simulation.
Kaufman's
book is way too complex for most people. You should read all
of the other
books first and then come back to Kaufman's. After you've
been trading for 5
or 10 years, Kaufman's book will be more
transparent. I'm writing a few
articles on some of the stuff in
Kaufman's updated systems book, which just
came out. I'm going to
illustrate how to apply some of the more interesting
info properly.
It's hard to learn system's development from Kaufman, but
you can
refine systems based on what he says--if you know a hell of a
lot
about what you're doing.
Stridsman tests all kinds of systems and
tells you what the test
results are. Stridsman is the poster child for why
most traders fail.
He is a great systems developer yet the vast majority of
his systems
are too eratic and inconsistent to make money year in and year
out. He
is telling you that most of the stuff that traders love to use
doesn't
work worth a crap. He's a great education in learning to read
systems
tables and how to set up tests.
Chuck LeBeau and Chande are
good also. But again, the info that Roy
has published beats them all.
Email Roy and ask him for a free copy of the April issue of MSTT
with
the SPY and QQQQ trading system in it. Then you'll figure out why
you
should be reading it.
www.metastocktips.co.nz
By the way,
you should keep a copy of the rules of trading I posted
and in three or four
years if you have any money left read them again.
They'll have more
meaning.
The other group that will help you go broke is:
http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/equismetastock/?yguid=157730241
Forget
metastock.com . That mule don't pack!
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