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We try to do this with models. Most models are poor at predicting the
future or giving trading signals, but if you optimise them correctly
(I know there are pitfalls - this is not an invitation to highlight
all the dangers of curve-fitting) and try to learn from them, whatever
it is that they bring to the table, then eventually you have this
'suite of models' that produces much better results than any one model
would do. Even if you should have a single model that always
outperform the rest, you can learn from the rest and gain information
that you otherwise would not have. The same applies to George, Bob,
Fred and Bill - to people in other words. You can learn from a
newbie, even if he has the poorest track record in the country. I
know one fund manager who would pick the worst trader in her group,
and implement the opposite strategies as him on a larger scale!
Now, I realise super, that you have been doing this for years and that
you will be on the same page as others that have been doing so. But
that may be the wrong page for somebody who just started. Maybe that
person should spent some money on seminars (I would not encourage it,
but it may be a cheaper way than loosing money to get up to speed with
the jargon of the markets) and so on. Anyhow, many of the points you
make regarding marketing are also valid and a newbie should be
critical when attacked by some marketing campaign.
Regards
MG Ferreira
TsaTsa EOD Programmer and trading model builder
http://www.ferra4models.com
http://fun.ferra4models.com
--- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, superfragalist <no_reply@xxxx>
wrote:
> Here's something that Jack told me he realized recently.
>
> George develops systems but he failed as a trader.
>
> Jack uses George's systems and he's successful. Jack realizes that
> when the market is in an uptrend, 60 to 80% of all stocks are going
> up. George, Bob, Fred and Bill's systems all work good when the market
> is going up. It doesn't matter how complex the system is or how
> simple it is, it's going to have a very high probability of working in
> an uptrend.
>
> Jack knows this and apparently George didn't. Jack realizes that
> George, Bob, Fred and Bill's systems are going to have poor returns if
> they're picking longs when the market is in a downtrend.
>
> While Jack also understands that George's system can work even though
> George failed as a trader, Jack understands that if he wants a mentor,
> successful people make better mentors than unsuccessful people. While
> he uses George's system, Jack has realistic expectations based on what
> professional traders have told him and not on what George said. He
> sees George as a tool provider and not as a money maker. He listens to
> George's instructions on using the tool but not on making money. If
> Jack wanted to sell systems, then George would be good mentor. If Jack
> wants to make money from trading, George has limited ability to help
> Jack.
>
>
> So Jack picks a system that he can understand, and he only trades it
> when there is an uptrend. Jack understands that he can tell when there
> is an uptrend using simple moving averages and that any lag in the MAs
> is irrelevant as long as he goes long with a portfolio of around 25
> stocks sometime after the uptrend has started.
>
> If Jack wants to go short, he tests George's system to see if it is
> any good at trading shorts in downtrends. If it's not, he finds a
> system that is good at shorting in downtrends, and he only uses in
> when there is a downtrend.
>
> Jack suspects that there is no such thing as a system that works in
> both uptrends and downtrends so he stops looking for ONE and is
> willing to use two systems when the conditions are right for each one.
>
> Jack also understands that there is no "one" best tool. There are many
> hammers for driving a nail. Some hammers feel better to some people,
> but no matter how many hammers Jack tries, he knows the limits of
> hammers and doesn't expect them to drive nails through steel or pick
> good long trades in a downtrend. Jack knows that a hammer won't build
> anything. It's his skill at using it that gets the house built.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> --- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "metastkuser"
> <andysmith_999@xxxx> wrote:
> > Thanks for the reply -- it made me realize something:
> >
> > George develops systems and presents seminars. George has failed as a
> > trader. Therefore George's systems and seminars are bogus. --> FALSE.
> >
> > Condi uses George's systems and seminar learnings. Condi is a
> > successful trader. Therefore George's systems/seminars are good. -->
> TRUE.
> >
> >
> >
> > --- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "jawjahtek" <jawjahtek@xxxx>
> wrote:
> > > Some answers to your questions since I have met some of these
people:
> > >
> > > 1. Dr. Alexander Elder writes books, sells software, offers
seminars
> > > and personal coaching/consulting. Anyone know if he trades?
> > >
> > > Yes, Dr. Elder trades but it is a minimal level. He has tried and
> > > failed several times to use his trading methods for an advisory
> > > service. I'm not trying to disparage his work (or anyone elses),
I am
> > > just reporting what I know.
> > >
> > > 2. Chuck Lebeau develops systems. I love his writings. Anyone know
> > > if he trades?
> > >
> > > Yes, LeBeau trades his various systems, but he is far more
successful
> > > at selling his systems. In his case, his clients are institutions
> > > first. Systems that he sells to the average investor have already
> > > been "fully utilized" by LeBeau's big dollar clients.
> > >
> > > 3. Van Tharpe was apparently unsuccessful in any trading and only
> > > provides seminars now.
> > >
> > > 4. Ed Seykota, I haven't met him so I cannot make an honest comment.
> > >
> > > Bouns:
> > > John Ehlers (MESA and its various incarantions). John is an
engineer.
> > > At a session where I met him, he showed his partially successful
but
> > > unimpressive trading record. John readily admits that he hates
> > > trading.
> > >
> > > I think John Ehlers is a good example of the personality of a
system
> > > developer vs. the personality of a trader. Systems development
> > > requires a willingness to program accurately. Accurate programs
are a
> > > pain to write, test and debug for the average person. A good system
> > > developer's personality borders on obsessive perfectionism. Trading
> > > on the other hand is a very messy business. A good trader readily
> > > accepts that many trades will fail. Perfectionists do not make good
> > > traders. It is rare for a good programmer to be a good trader. It
> > > simply requires a different personality type.
> > >
> > >
> > > jawjahtek
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > --- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "metastkuser"
> > > <andysmith_999@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > Very interesting post.
> > > >
> > > > Dr. Alexander Elder writes books, sells software, offers seminars
> > > and
> > > > personal coaching/consulting. Anyone know if he trades?
> > > >
> > > > Chuck Lebeau develops systems. I love his writings. Anyone
know if
> > > he
> > > > trades? Same questions with Van Tharp.
> > > >
> > > > What about Ed Seykota? No doubt about his trading abilities and
> > > > wealth. So why does he offer a consultation service at Incline
> > > Village?
> > > >
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