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Hi there,
I once talked to a very clever mathematician from Romenia who believed
all technical trading is junk. He would laugh at patterns, saying
things like 'a double-bottom in a random walk - ha ha ha'. Anyhow, he
and his colleagues all played the markets, and only one of them ever
made anything. He was of the opinion margin should be much, much
higher to disencourage the public of loosing money because of the high
uncertainty. Anyhow, his answer to the question, based on the one
guy's performance, was that you needed a certain degree of luck.....
I do not agree with him....
Regards
MG Ferreira
TsaTsa EOD Programmer and trading model builder
http://www.ferra4models.com
http://fun.ferra4models.com
--- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "metastkuser"
<andysmith_999@xxxx> wrote:
> I have a question (unrelated to Metastock) for the experienced traders
> on this forum.
>
> I have now read a dozen books on trading -- not the foo-foo books that
> promise $10M in the next trade, but ones by Tharp (my favorite),
> Chande, Le Beau, Stridsman, Elder, Covel, Schwager (and O'Neil,
> Link,...) and a couple of Tharp's IITM publications on money
> management etc. Will get to Kaufman next. And of course every issue of
> Roy's MSTT which are simply marvellous.
>
> I've put a couple of hopefully positive expectancy systems together
> (discretionary at this point so it's not easy to use the system
> tester). The systems have four stages: 1) setup (to identify market
> trend and stock trend but not entry), 2) entry (looks at timing), 3)
> exit and 4) money management. I have spent quite a bit of time on 3)
> and 4) because I believe they hold the key to being a successful
> trader. I use volatility as a significant determinant in all 4 stages.
>
> So I've done my homework. The odd thing is that none of this has been
> difficult to understand -- not just for me but I'm sure for anyone who
> takes the time and has some patience.... and now I am confused.
>
> 1) Why do so many traders fail? Have they not read these books?
> (Please don't reply that they are undercapitalized and/or they have
> the wrong psychology for trading).
>
> 2) What do reading the next 50 books buy me (besides the enjoyment of
> reading them)? Surely the law of diminshing returns kicks in right
> about now.
>
> 3) At this point, what would the typical causes of failure be?
>
> 4) This is a Metastock forum. Can someone point me to a more
> appropriate forum for this type of discussion (I have not found one).
>
> Thanks!!!
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