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[Metastockusers] Re: Position Sizing Based on Volatility



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DM, this is strictly for entry sizing. Exit timing and amounts are
another topic altogether.




--- In Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "eastwind987" <dm999@xxxx> wrote:
> Superfragalist,
> 
> What a wonderful formula you gave us! The key to making money in the 
> stock market is knowing how to manage risk and reward, and your 
> formula makes it easy.  The Turtles used ATR(14) combined with a 
> calculation for the value of a futures contract; but I never 
> translated that calculation to stocks.
> 
> Do you use this formula to tell you when to adjust your position in a 
> stock?  In other words, do you sell half of the position when the ATR 
> gets to a certain point, which would re-balance the risk?
> 
> I already subscribe to Roy's letter, and look forward to every issue.
> 
> dm
> 
> --- In Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "superfragalist" 
> <jackolso@xxxx> wrote:
> > I have been accused of promoting Roy's newsletter. That accusation 
> is
> > alleged and the merit as yet undetermined. Without admitting or
> > denying anything, if it sounds like I promote the newsletter, it's
> > because it's such a good MS tool that I think every MS user should 
> use
> > it. 
> > 
> > In fact, Equis should give everyone who purchases MS a free one year
> > subscription. (I'm sorry, I lost my head for a minute. I know that's
> > just being too rational.)
> > 
> > However, unlike Equis I don't ignore the users and what they need to
> > be successful. So as a gift to everyone who subscribes to Roy's
> > newsletter THIS MONTH, I'm going to give you a terrific position
> > sizing indicator that calculates the number of shares of a 
> particular
> > stock that you should buy based on your personal risk profile and 
> the
> > volatility of the stock. 
> > 
> > This is a powerful tool for position sizing, so don't ignore it. 
> Test
> > it out and see if it improves your returns. It's based on sound 
> theory
> > of money management. 
> > 
> > CapitalAccount:=Input("Size of Capital 
> Account",5000,10000000,100000);
> > RiskPercent:=Input("Account Risk Tolerance in 
> Decimals.",0.001,100,0.01);
> > {This is the amount of your account balance you're willing to lose 
> per
> > trade-- 0.01 equals 1%.}
> > VT:=Input("ATR Periods for Calculating Volatility.",1,100,10);
> > Bars:=Input("Number of Bars for Smoothing ATR.",2,100,10);
> > WhimpFactor:=Input("Personal Risk Profile-1 Cowboy to 7 
> Whimp",1,7,3);
> > {1 means you ride bulls and live hard, 7 means you're Mister
> > Rogers--most people fall in between.}
> > x:=Mov(ATR(VT),Bars,S);
> > RiskPercent*CapitalAccount/(x*WhimpFactor)
> > 
> > Plot this on the chart and read the shares to include in your
> > portfolio at the current price. 
> > 
> > Yes, I know I'm giving it to you before you subscribe. I work off of
> > the honor system, so I know that everyone who reads this will honor
> > the deal and sign up. This one indicator alone is worth the price. 
> > 
> > www.metastocktips.co.nz
> > 
> > I know who's being naughty and nice, I'm making a list and counting 
> it
> > twice. So look out, Christmas is coming. It's not a good time to be
> > breaking the honor code. Okay!




 
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