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Now, these are very, very wise words. You'd better get that legendary
black sable fur, just in case, to avoid any problems.
I think that plug-in will be a great success. Free dummy included
with every purchase.
Regards
MG Ferreira
TsaTsa EOD Programmer and trading model builder
http://www.ferra4models.com
http://fun.ferra4models.com
--- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "TecloGeo" <teclogeo@xxxx> wrote:
> MG, I’d never pick a fight with anyone…but least of all with my
own young daughter. First off, I know what’s good for me - her
mother is Mongolian, and I can say without a shadow of doubt that the
blood of Ghengis runs through her veins! More importantly though,
she’s developed a remarkable knack of crying for attention just as
my favourite indicators start popping off, which was a bit of a
distraction until I realised that it might end up making my fortune.
“ Megan’s CryBaby Plug-in” has a nice, marketable, ring to it
don’t you think?
>
> I bet I can sell it too…
>
>
>
>
>
> _____
>
> From: equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
[mailto:equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of mgf_za_1999
> Sent: Tuesday, May 17, 2005 5:32 PM
> To: equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: [EquisMetaStock Group] Volatile markets
>
>
>
> Ah, there is nothing like family to balance market stresses with.
>
> But, by reading it to your daughter, were you then picking a fight
> with her? Having a 3 month old daughter myself, I'd be careful if I
> were you..... I discussed the Heikin-Ashi posts with mine and as a
> result had a sleepless night.
>
> I should have learned after the market-eye experience.....
>
> Regards
> MG Ferreira
> TsaTsa EOD Programmer and trading model builder
> http://www.ferra4models.com
> http://fun.ferra4models.com
>
>
>
> --- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "TecloGeo" <teclogeo@xxxx> wrote:
> > Wow!
> > When I read that one aloud to my daughter she opened her mouth and
> her dummy fell out…so at least I have it on good authority
that you
> speak wisely!
> > Unfortunately I can’t claim to follow it so well…but
I can tell
> you that, from what you say, my own personal â€"fractional order of
> integration†must definitely be less than 0.5…
> >
> > ➢ Every nondegenerate distro lies in the maximum domain of
> attraction of an EVT distro
> >
> > That's fighting talk where I come from!
> >
> >
> > ________________________________________
> > From: equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> [mailto:equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of mgf_za_1999
> > Sent: Tuesday, May 17, 2005 2:36 PM
> > To: equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: [EquisMetaStock Group] Volatile markets
> >
> > There is this school of thought, that the market has a volatility
> > without bound. They get their theory from the stable distributions,
> > of which the central limit theorem is a special case. There is this
> > thing called the alpha parameter. If it is '2', the max, then you
> > have a stable distro with a finite variance, and the thing reduces to
> > the central limit theorem. If alpha is less, then you have something
> > with infinite variance. If alpha is less than one, then even the mean
> > is infinite (if I remember correctly).
> >
> > Also, another school of thought, uses the correlogram to determine
> > something called the fractional order of integration. If this order
> > is less than 0.5, then the response to shocks becomes infinte and the
> > system is inherently unstable.
> >
> > These schoolds are the guys calling for higher margin as the market
> > basically is much more volatile - in their opinion - than what we
> > think and is too dangerous for the average person to participate in,
> > so we need high margins. If any of these holds (alpha<2 or d<=0.50),
> > there is no way in which it (volatility) can be transformed away.
> >
> > Anyhow, I think ATR works because it deals with extremes. Yet another
> > school uses EVT (extreme value theory) to measure tails and fit
> > distros to the tails. Every nondegenerate distro lies in the maximum
> > domain of attraction of an EVT distro (if I remember correctly) which
> > means in practise you can model the tail of almost any distro using an
> > EVT distro.
> >
> > The way in which you fit an EVT distro is to first filter out all the
> > extreme values, say the largest and smallest values per week. So you
> > reduce the time series from say 50 values (5 per week) to 10 values
> > (one per week). Now you fit an EVT distro to this and use it to
> > predict say the next day extreme. ATR uses the high and low of the
> > day, so I guess it relates quite a bit to EVT. But you would not use
> > ATR when pricing options e.g. Here you'll start with good ol' stdev,
> > maybe weight it as in an example in a previous post, maybe expand it
> > to a GARCH model as in another example or something like that.
> >
> > Regards
> > MG Ferreira
> > TsaTsa EOD Programmer and trading model builder
> > http://www.ferra4models.com
> > http://fun.ferra4models.com
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > ________________________________________
> > Yahoo! Groups Links
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> >
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> >
> > • Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms
of Service.
>
>
>
>
>
> _____
>
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