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I have the Millard book but it's in the pile of books I want to read but
haven't gotten to yet. The envelope channels I use are based on a SMA,
shifted half a cycle, with bands based on an ATR multiple. I find I need a
variable band to get the snugness of fit I want. I find I need to adjust the
ATR multiple by hand to get the right fit.
In the picture you will notice I am using the half-cycle SMA as a basis for
price projection - again, a manual operation.
What I haven't started to play with yet is extrapolating the MA and channel
lines.
I think its unfortunate that the cyclic approach got hijacked by the signal
processing crowd, because that pushed it into black box territory for all
except those with high level math. The foundation that Hurst built is very
helpful, even today.
Best
Andrew
-----Original Message-----
From: equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
On Behalf Of robcpettit
Sent: Friday, May 06, 2005 3:22 AM
To: equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: [EquisMetaStock Group] How to apply the market cycle?
Andrew, liked the picture, currently reading j m hursts book along with
brian millards. Im new to metastock so Ihope yuo dont mind the question. Did
you use inbuilt indicators or build your own. Ive almost completed a channel
indicator described by millard, keeping the channel depths constant. Hope
ypu dont mind. Regards Robert
--- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Andrew Tomlinson"
<andrew_tomlinson@xxxx> wrote:
> Eric
>
> The cycle lines just work as a mechanical tool to aid recording
> observed cycles in the data. So you eyeball the data, input the
> frequency in
bars and
> then adjust the horizontal shift to optimize the phase. Overlay
> another cycle line in the same inner window or the next one, etc.
>
> I have uploaded a jpg called "Cycle illustration" just to show how
the tool
> can be used as part of a current cycle analysis for the S&P 500. That
> analysis called the timing and extent of the move of the last 10
days. The
> cycle lines used are 20 days (the dominant intermediate cycle) and
two 110
> day cycles with different phasing (if you eyeball the data there are
> alternating lows every two and three months).
>
> Note that for cycle analysis you need to shift the moving averages and
> envelopes back by a half cycle.
>
> When the market isn't moving cyclically (e.g. November breakout)
this method
> doesn't work.
>
> If you want to get into cycles, pick up a copy of J M Hurst, the
Magic of
> Stock Transaction Timing. He sorted all this out in 1970, except he
> was doing most of it by hand. Most chart patterns can be described as
> cycle combinations.
>
> Happy trading
> Andrew
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
[mailto:equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> On Behalf Of chichungchoi
> Sent: Tuesday, May 03, 2005 10:10 AM
> To: equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: [EquisMetaStock Group] How to apply the market cycle?
>
>
> Does anyone know how to apply market cycle properly? Please see the
> following image.
> http://www.advantage.online.pl/FREE/cycles.gif
>
> Does anyone know any related materials explaining about this issue?
Thank
> you Eric
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Yahoo! Groups Links
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