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Your experience and mine are different in regard to how "real" you can
make a systems test. I started trading 30 years ago, when everything
had to be done by hand or by programming a main frame. I started on an
IBM 1620 computer, and frankly my HP calculator is many times faster
than it was.
I have never been able to program the judgement I use for deciding
whether or not to take a trade. I've never taken that out of my
trading and I can't seem to get a set of equations that matches it
well enough to satisfy me.
I do change my trading rules according to the market conditions. I
suppose I could write some equations that would do that, at least in part.
Basically I have found that the exploration paper trading comes much,
much closer to reality for me than the systems test. That's one reason
I didn't get into Trade Sim and Wealth Lab.
Anyway if we share enough information someone somewhere will get a
good idea or two and make some money.
Let's hope so anyway.
--- In Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Adrian Pitt" <apitt@xxxx> wrote:
> Thanks for the detailed run down of how you go about things Super. It
> was interesting to read. I don't actually use MS, but do my testing in
> TS and WL. Unlike you I try to make my systems as realistic as possible
> so that when the real results come thorough I can compare it to the
> simulation. If you exit based on the condition of the market then I
> will simply make that part of the system. Why test something that your
> not going to trade apart from initially trying to get a generally feel
> as to whether the idea has merit. Once you prove it has, then you
> refine it to the point where the simulation IS the way you will trade
> it...assuming you want to trade totally mechanically. Perhaps this is
> easier to do for me as I have had many years of trading experience and
> know what assumptions are realistic and what are not.
>
> Adrian
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> [mailto:Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of superfragalist
> Sent: Saturday, 16 April 2005 2:00 AM
> To: Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: [Metastockusers] System Tests alternatives
>
>
>
> Adrian,
>
> I use the systems tester to make gross approximations. All systems
> tests are only good on a relative basis. You can compare one MS
> systems test to another MS systems test and you can rank them. You
> shouldn't compare an MS systems test to trade station systems test.
>
> Say you test five different systems and then you rank them in the
> order of their performance.
>
> That ranking is based on what you see on the statistical side and not
> whether a system is any good in live trading. It's hard to determine
> how close someone will get to the systems tests statistics until they
> analyze data from live trading.
>
> To avoid surprises, I run systems through the systems tester, and if
> they look like something that fits within the parameters of how I
> trade, I write an exploration from the same equations.
>
> I have predefined historical time periods where I know what kind of
> market behavior was occurring. I do several (10 to 100 bar by bar)
> expplorations during a particular market condition. I open the charts,
> apply my trading rules to the charts and create a list of the trades I
> would have taken. I then look at the chart to see how the trades I
> would have taken performed.
>
> This way I can see how the system works in up trends, down trends,
> sideways markets, etc.
>
> If there is something that I don't like that I'm seeing, like too many
> charts passing the exploration, too few, or a variety of other things
> I've learned to avoid, I check the equations to see if I can fix the
> problem with filters or with other adjustments to it.
>
> Once I'm satisfied that a system has a good chance of working for me
> in live trading, I paper trade it for a couple of months sometimes
> longer.
>
> I have a program that tracks those results.
>
> The actual results are never the same, or really even close to the
> same, as those in the tester. However, if I have ranked 5 systems with
> the tester, the rankings after these explorer/trading tests have
> tended to be similar, even though the numerical values are not.
>
> There are many many variables that can not be put into a systems
> tester. I want the chart to show certain characteristics before I take
> a trade, but my chart "look" is not precise and is difficult to
> duplicate with equations.
>
> Another issue that impacts systems tests is the choice of exits and
> stops. The system tester is consistent in applying those. I'm not. I
> change my exits and stops according to market conditions. This is
> another reason the systems tester is only an approximation and a crude
> one at that.
>
> Over the years, I've run many thousands of systems tests and put
> probably 100 different systems through the explorer side of the tests.
> Out of that I have found a few systems that fit my trading profile.
> Those systems are the ones I rely on.
>
> In response to Andrew's comments about keeping track of slippage.
> That's the only way to do it. I don't bother putting slippage into my
> systems tests or commissions. My actual slippage depends on many
> factors. If a symbol is a high volume stock like C, then slippage is
> not a factor. If it's a master limited partnership, or REIT, slippage
> is larger, but the holding period tends to be longer.
>
> My trade clearing is now so much faster than it used to be, I don't
> consider slippage to be a major pain like it once was. The commissons
> have dropped down to the decimal places.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> --- In Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Adrian Pitt" <apitt@xxxx> wrote:
> > If you believe in a few core trading methods, presumably from
> > simulations you have done applying them to the type of market
> conditions
> > they are suited to, but at the same time you say you don't rely on
> > system tests....so I'm fascinated...what do you rely on if you don't
> > have extensive real time results? How do the above two views possibly
> > sit side by side?
> >
> > Regards,
> > Adrian
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > [mailto:Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of superfragalist
> > Sent: Friday, 15 April 2005 12:49 PM
> > To: Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: [Metastockusers] Re: System Tester Results (Redu) Idea for
> > Scott
> >
> >
> >
> > Slippage is often a function of the vendor you are using.
> >
> > I use Fidelity. I'm a big block trader and I have very little slippage
> > and very fast execution. It wasn't that way when I first started with
> > them. I had several conversations with their order desk, and over time
> > they've made huge improvements. There trading software is now also
> > excellent. At first it was pretty but not real good. Now it is as good
> > as any trade execution software I've used, and I've tried a lot of
> them.
> >
> >
> > Your idea about narrowing your list of stocks is a good idea but when
> > I talk about narrowing the list, I'm talking about a universe of maybe
> > 100 to 200 stocks. A lot of my trading buddies keep their lists to
> > less than 20.
> >
> > I don't rely much on systems tests results because I've never seen a
> > system that produced nearly the same stats in live trading. Perhaps it
> > depends on whose is driving the boat.
> >
> > In addition, there are a lot of settings I can make with the systems
> > tester that gives me results that can't be duplicated in living
> trading.
> >
> >
> > Anyway, have fun!
> >
> > Don't forget us little people when you get wealthy.
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > --- In Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Scooter" <mariani@xxxx> wrote:
> > > Super,
> > > I am only cautiously optimistic I can make any money with this
> system.
> > I
> > > have been paper trading it this month with decent results but I
> > don't think
> > > I am capturing slippage properly. I need some education on placing
> > large
> > > (for me) orders.
> > >
> > > I will go back and search the forum for documented differences
> > between 8.0
> > > and 8.01.
> > >
> > > Thanks again for taking the time to try and help me and others, I
> > know how
> > > valuable time is.
> > > Scott
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > [mailto:Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of superfragalist
> > > Sent: Thursday, April 14, 2005 9:21 PM
> > > To: Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Subject: [Metastockusers] Re: System Tester Results (Redu) Idea
> > for Scott
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Okay, good luck with the system. In three years, you can tell us
> how
> > > much you've made. Get the results audited, and you can sell the
> > system
> > > to the less fortunate.
> > >
> > > Next time you run tests year by year use the calendar year. I've
> run
> > > into some problems with test results that used starting dates in
> the
> > > middle of the year. Intuitively, it doesn't seem like it would
> > matter,
> > > but I've seen a few systems tests where it did make a difference.
> > >
> > > --- In Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Scooter" <mariani@xxxx>
> > wrote:
> > > > Roy,
> > > > I was afraid of that.
> > > >
> > > > Super,
> > > > Thanks for the detailed explanation. Guess I am SOL.
> > > >
> > > > Here are the overall portfolio profits each year for 10 years.
> > Based on
> > > > $20,000 initial with 100% available equity invested.
> > > >
> > > > Test # Description OPT1=2 OPT1=3
> > > > Simulation 26
> > > > Simulation 33 Tickers from 4/13/95 to 4/13/96 $56,191.43
> > > $50,938.91
> > > > Simulation 34 Tickers from 4/13/96 to 4/13/97 $57,085.49
> > > $16,903.62
> > > > Simulation 35 Tickers from 4/13/97 to 4/13/98 $77,511.63
> > > $114,957.57
> > > > Simulation 36 Tickers from 4/13/98 to 4/13/99 $71,420.85
> > > $98,303.31
> > > > Simulation 37 Tickers from 4/13/99 to 4/13/00 $209,405.87
> > > $290,114.33
> > > > Simulation 38 Tickers from 4/13/00 to 4/13/01 $1,615.60
> > > ($29,693.35)
> > > > Simulation 39 Tickers from 4/13/01 to 4/13/02 $152,639.93
> > > $158,116.91
> > > > Simulation 40 Tickers from 4/13/02 to 4/13/03 ($11,963.12)
> > > $106,714.19
> > > > Simulation 41 Tickers from 4/13/03 to 4/13/04 $160,324.40
> > > $234,187.23
> > > > Simulation 42 Tickers from 4/13/04 to 4/13/05 $85,159.69
> > > $139,048.32
> > > > $859,391.77 $1,179,591.04
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > I don't have the time to manually move the individual data to
> > excel
> > > at this
> > > > time.
> > > >
> > > > Thanks again, Scott
> > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > From: Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > [mailto:Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Roy Larsen
> > > > Sent: Thursday, April 14, 2005 8:50 PM
> > > > To: Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > Subject: Re: [Metastockusers] Re: System Tester Results (Redu)
> > > Idea for
> > > > Scott
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Scott
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Somewhere I got the impression you were using MS 8.0. I may be
> > > wrong but I
> > > > don't think it's possible
> > > > to copy System Tester results from 8.0. I think that was one
> of
> > > the bugs
> > > > fixed with 8.01. The "copy
> > > > to clipboard" option certainly works for 9.0, though Ctrl+C
> > > doesn't seem
> > > > to work. Once pasted to the
> > > > clipboard Crtl+V works OK for pasting into Excel.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Kind regards
> > > >
> > > > Roy Larsen
> > > > www.metastocktips.co.nz
> > > > Free formulas and MS links
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "Scooter" <mariani@xxxx>
> > > > To: <Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > Sent: Friday, April 15, 2005 11:15 AM
> > > > Subject: RE: [Metastockusers] Re: System Tester Results (Redu)
> > > Idea for
> > > > Scott
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > If only it was that easy. I can not get the data out of MS,
> > short of
> > > > > manually transferring every symbol. I select the results but
> > the
> > > only
> > > > right
> > > > > mouse click option is "discard". I have tried all the
> Windows
> > > tricks I
> > > > know,
> > > > > no luck.
> > > > > Scott
> > > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > > From: Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > > [mailto:Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of John
> > > > > Sent: Thursday, April 14, 2005 6:19 PM
> > > > > To: Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > > Subject: [Metastockusers] Re: System Tester Results (Redu)
> > Idea for
> > > > Scott
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > I'm sorry Scott, I meant to say copy results from the
> system
> > > tester,
> > > > > not the explorer. You open your test results page and
> follow
> > > the steps
> > > > > I've explained. Highlight the results you want to transfer
> to
> > > excel,
> > > > > copy to the clipboard, etc.
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > --- In Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Scooter"
> > <mariani@xxxx>
> > > wrote:
> > > > > > Super,
> > > > > > Thanks for taking some time to help me!
> > > > > >
> > > > > > I know how to get the results from the Explorer, I do not
> > > know how
> > > > > to get
> > > > > > the results from the System Tester.
> > > > > > I am excited to try what you suggest but need a little
> more
> > > help to
> > > > > start.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Scott
> > > > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > > > From: superfragalist [mailto:jackolso@x...]
> > > > > > Sent: Thursday, April 14, 2005 11:05 AM
> > > > > > To: Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > > > Subject: [Metastockusers] System Tester Results (Redu)
> > Idea for
> > > > Scott
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Scott,
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Here's an idea that you can use to test your theory. I
> > > explained
> > > > how
> > > > > > to copy results from an exploration into excel and then
> > > from excel
> > > > > > back into various MS lists.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Run your systems test year by year on your expert.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Sort the test alphabetically, and then copy the entire
> > test for
> > > > each
> > > > > > year into a new excel worksheet for that year.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > From each worksheet copy the symbol and it's annual
> > percentage
> > > > return
> > > > > > into a new worksheet. Once you have delete symbols that
> > > don't match
> > > > > > across all ten columns, you can delete all of the
> symbols
> > > except
> > > > the
> > > > > > first year's. You'll be left with a year by year
> > comparison
> > > of the
> > > > > > return on each symbol with your expert.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > You can then see which symbols were consistently
> > profitable and
> > > > which
> > > > > > one weren't. This will answer your question.
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > --- In Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Scooter"
> > <mariani@xxxx>
> > > > wrote:
> > > > > > > Super,
> > > > > > > I did read Mr. Wright's series of articles as you
> > suggested
> > > > > > previously. I
> > > > > > > found it very informative. I found that I was already
> > > doing many
> > > > > of the
> > > > > > > things he suggested in developing a system. I have
> > > applied many
> > > > of
> > > > > > the ideas
> > > > > > > he talked about since reading the articles, more like
> > a book!
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > He does not address the validity of throwing out
> > losers,
> > > based on
> > > > a
> > > > > > system
> > > > > > > test, from an available list of potential stocks to
> > trade.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > I know there are a cagillion system developing books
> to
> > > read. I
> > > > will
> > > > > > pick up
> > > > > > > a few to read when I have the time.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Can you C&P system test results from MS8.0?
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Scott
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > > > > From: superfragalist [mailto:jackolso@x...]
> > > > > > > Sent: Wednesday, April 13, 2005 8:34 PM
> > > > > > > To: Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > > > > Subject: [Metastockusers] Re: System Tester Results
> > (Redu)
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Looks like you're using the systems tester without
> > much
> > > > > knowledge of
> > > > > > > systems development.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Read a few books on system design and then you'll
> see
> > > you're
> > > > > wasting
> > > > > > > your time.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > There's a very good article on this coming up in
> the
> > > May issue
> > > > of
> > > > > > > Roy's newsletter.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Don't ask for book recommendations because one book
> > > won't do
> > > > it.
> > > > > > > You'll need to read around a dozen or so systems
> > > development
> > > > > books to
> > > > > > > get a really good take on how things work. Once
> > you've done
> > > > that,
> > > > > > > you'll soon figure out that using TA by itself is
> not
> > > the best
> > > > > method
> > > > > > > for picking stocks to trade, the performance of any
> > system
> > > > > based on TA
> > > > > > > is going to dramatically change each year with a
> lot
> > of
> > > losing
> > > > > years,
> > > > > > > there are no indicators that work even reasonably
> > well
> > > across a
> > > > > > > variety of stocks or in changing market conditions,
> > and
> > > > searching
> > > > > > > thousands of stocks every night for something to
> > trade
> > > is in
> > > > > the long
> > > > > > > run a losing idea.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Does that mean you can't make money using TA. You
> > can,
> > > but you
> > > > > have to
> > > > > > > have a well thought out strategy and apply the
> > strategy
> > > > > appropriately
> > > > > > > for the market conditions.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > I'm amazed at how many people that refuse to spend
> a
> > > dime on
> > > > > > > education, information, good data or anything else
> > that
> > > might
> > > > help
> > > > > > > them, but they'll pay a guru thousands for useless
> > trading
> > > > > methods or
> > > > > > > lose thousands more making bad trades. It's
> > baffaling.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > You can read Charlie Wright's series of articles
> > called
> > > > > Trading as a
> > > > > > > Business. That will give you some basics about how
> to
> > > approach
> > > > > this.
> > > > > > > Read all the articles in the series. They all have
> > > something
> > > > > important
> > > > > > > to say.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > http://www.elitetrader.com/tr/index.cfm?s=17
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Give Roy's newsletter a try. It's all about MS with
> > the
> > > code
> > > > for
> > > > > > > everything discussed in it. You'll learn more from
> > that
> > > in a
> > > > > few hours
> > > > > > > of reading the back issues than you will from
> playing
> > > with the
> > > > > systems
> > > > > > > tester for next few years.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > www.metastocktips.co.nz
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > --- In Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Scooter"
> > > > > <mariani@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > > > > > O.k.,
> > > > > > > > I have finally cooked the indicators enough
> > (nothing
> > > new) to
> > > > > come up
> > > > > > > with a
> > > > > > > > system that is profitable over several different
> > > period back
> > > > > tests,
> > > > > > > at least
> > > > > > > > in MS. My question is, do I remove the loosing or
> > > zero trade
> > > > > tickers
> > > > > > > from my
> > > > > > > > potential list of tradable tickers I will run my
> > > Exploration
> > > > > on when
> > > > > > > looking
> > > > > > > > for a new trading opportunity? MS seems to be
> keen
> > on
> > > > "cleaning
> > > > > > up" by
> > > > > > > > removing the losers. Doesn't make sense to me to
> > say
> > > because
> > > > the
> > > > > > > tickers did
> > > > > > > > not hit or make a profit over x amount of periods
> > > they will
> > > > not
> > > > > > make a
> > > > > > > > profit in the future. Or does it increase my
> > potential
> > > > > > profitability by
> > > > > > > > removing them? Can I somehow export the remaining
> > ticker
> > > > > symbols to
> > > > > > > excel or
> > > > > > > > csv so I can adjust my HSQuote list accordingly?
> > > > > > > > Thanks, Scott
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > >
> > > > >
> > >
> >
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
> > -
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> > > > > > > --
> > > > > > > Yahoo! Groups Links
> > > > > > >
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> > > >
> > > > >
> > >
> >
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> > >
> >
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
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> > > > >
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> > >
> >
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
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> > > > --
> > > > Yahoo! Groups Links
> > > >
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> > > >
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