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Title: Message
If you
believe in a few core trading methods, presumably from simulations you have done
applying them to the type of market conditions they are suited to, but at
the same time you say you don't rely on system tests....so I'm fascinated...what
do you rely on if you don't have extensive real time results? How do the
above two views possibly sit side by side?
Regards,
Adrian
Slippage is often a function of the vendor
you are using.
I use Fidelity. I'm a big block trader and I have very
little slippage
and very fast execution. It wasn't that way when I first
started with
them. I had several conversations with their order desk, and
over time
they've made huge improvements. There trading software is now
also
excellent. At first it was pretty but not real good. Now it is as
good
as any trade execution software I've used, and I've tried a lot of
them.
Your idea about narrowing your list of stocks is a good idea but
when
I talk about narrowing the list, I'm talking about a universe of
maybe
100 to 200 stocks. A lot of my trading buddies keep their lists
to
less than 20.
I don't rely much on systems tests results because
I've never seen a
system that produced nearly the same stats in live
trading. Perhaps it
depends on whose is driving the boat.
In
addition, there are a lot of settings I can make with the systems
tester
that gives me results that can't be duplicated in living trading.
Anyway, have fun!
Don't forget us little people when you get
wealthy.
--- In Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx,
"Scooter" <mariani@xxxx> wrote:
> Super,
> I am only
cautiously optimistic I can make any money with this system. I
> have
been paper trading it this month with decent results but I
don't
think
> I am capturing slippage properly. I need some education on
placing large
> (for me) orders.
>
> I will go back and
search the forum for documented differences
between 8.0
> and
8.01.
>
> Thanks again for taking the time to try and help me and
others, I
know how
> valuable time is.
>
Scott
> -----Original Message-----
> From:
Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
[mailto:Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of
superfragalist
> Sent: Thursday, April 14, 2005 9:21
PM
> To: Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
Subject: [Metastockusers] Re: System Tester Results (Redu) Idea
for
Scott
>
>
>
> Okay, good luck with the
system. In three years, you can tell us how
> much you've
made. Get the results audited, and you can sell the system
>
to the less fortunate.
>
> Next time you run tests
year by year use the calendar year. I've run
> into some
problems with test results that used starting dates in the
>
middle of the year. Intuitively, it doesn't seem like it would
matter,
> but I've seen a few systems tests where it did
make a difference.
>
> --- In
Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Scooter" <mariani@xxxx>
wrote:
> > Roy,
> > I was afraid of
that.
> >
> >
Super,
> > Thanks for the detailed explanation. Guess I
am SOL.
> >
> > Here are the overall
portfolio profits each year for 10 years.
Based on
> >
$20,000 initial with 100% available equity invested.
>
>
> > Test #
Description OPT1=2 OPT1=3
>
> Simulation 26
>
> Simulation 33 Tickers from 4/13/95 to
4/13/96 $56,191.43
> $50,938.91
>
> Simulation 34 Tickers from 4/13/96 to
4/13/97 $57,085.49
> $16,903.62
>
> Simulation 35 Tickers from 4/13/97 to
4/13/98 $77,511.63
> $114,957.57
>
> Simulation 36 Tickers from 4/13/98 to
4/13/99 $71,420.85
> $98,303.31
>
> Simulation 37 Tickers from 4/13/99 to
4/13/00 $209,405.87
> $290,114.33
>
> Simulation 38 Tickers from 4/13/00 to
4/13/01 $1,615.60
> ($29,693.35)
>
> Simulation 39 Tickers from 4/13/01 to
4/13/02 $152,639.93
> $158,116.91
>
> Simulation 40 Tickers from 4/13/02 to
4/13/03 ($11,963.12)
> $106,714.19
>
> Simulation 41 Tickers from 4/13/03 to
4/13/04 $160,324.40
> $234,187.23
>
> Simulation 42 Tickers from 4/13/04 to
4/13/05 $85,159.69
> $139,048.32
>
> $859,391.77
$1,179,591.04
> >
>
>
> > I don't have the time to manually move the
individual data to excel
> at this
> >
time.
> >
> > Thanks again,
Scott
> > -----Original
Message-----
> > From:
Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
[mailto:Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Roy
Larsen
> > Sent: Thursday, April 14, 2005
8:50 PM
> > To:
Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject:
Re: [Metastockusers] Re: System Tester Results (Redu)
> Idea
for
> > Scott
>
>
> >
> >
Scott
> >
> >
>
> Somewhere I got the impression you were using MS 8.0. I may
be
> wrong but I
> > don't think it's
possible
> > to copy System Tester results
from 8.0. I think that was one of
> the
bugs
> > fixed with 8.01. The "copy
>
> to clipboard" option certainly works for 9.0, though
Ctrl+C
> doesn't seem
> > to work. Once
pasted to the
> > clipboard Crtl+V works OK
for pasting into Excel.
> >
>
>
> > Kind regards
>
>
> > Roy Larsen
>
> www.metastocktips.co.nz
> >
Free formulas and MS links
> >
>
>
> >
> >
>
>
> > ----- Original Message
-----
> > From: "Scooter"
<mariani@xxxx>
> > To:
<Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >
Sent: Friday, April 15, 2005 11:15 AM
> >
Subject: RE: [Metastockusers] Re: System Tester Results
(Redu)
> Idea for
> >
Scott
> >
> >
>
> > If only it was that easy. I can not get the data out of
MS,
short of
> > > manually
transferring every symbol. I select the results but the
>
only
> > right
> > >
mouse click option is "discard". I have tried all the
Windows
> tricks I
> >
know,
> > > no luck.
>
> > Scott
> > >
-----Original Message-----
> > >
From: Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > >
[mailto:Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of John
>
> > Sent: Thursday, April 14, 2005 6:19
PM
> > > To:
Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > >
Subject: [Metastockusers] Re: System Tester Results (Redu)
Idea
for
> > Scott
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
> > > I'm
sorry Scott, I meant to say copy results from the system
>
tester,
> > > not the explorer. You
open your test results page and follow
> the
steps
> > > I've explained.
Highlight the results you want to transfer to
>
excel,
> > > copy to the clipboard,
etc.
> > >
>
> >
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
> > > --- In
Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Scooter"
<mariani@xxxx>
> wrote:
>
> > > Super,
> >
> > Thanks for taking some time to help me!
>
> > >
> >
> > I know how to get the results from the Explorer, I do
not
> know how
> >
> to get
> > > > the
results from the System Tester.
> >
> > I am excited to try what you suggest but need a little
more
> help to
> >
> start.
> > >
>
> > > >
Scott
> > > >
-----Original Message-----
> > >
> From: superfragalist
[mailto:jackolso@xxxx]
> > >
> Sent: Thursday, April 14, 2005 11:05 AM
>
> > > To:
Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > >
> Subject: [Metastockusers] System Tester Results
(Redu)
Idea for
> > Scott
>
> > >
> >
> >
> > >
>
> > > >
Scott,
> > >
>
> > > > Here's
an idea that you can use to test your theory. I
>
explained
> > how
> >
> > to copy results from an exploration into excel and
then
> from excel
> >
> > back into various MS lists.
>
> > >
> >
> > Run your systems test year by year on your
expert.
> > >
>
> > > > Sort the
test alphabetically, and then copy the entire
test for
>
> each
> > > >
year into a new excel worksheet for that year.
>
> > >
> >
> > From each worksheet copy the symbol and it's
annual
percentage
> > return
>
> > > into a new worksheet. Once you
have delete symbols that
> don't match
>
> > > across all ten columns, you can
delete all of the symbols
> except
> >
the
> > > > first
year's. You'll be left with a year by year comparison
> of
the
> > > > return on
each symbol with your expert.
> > >
>
> > > > You can
then see which symbols were consistently
profitable and
>
> which
> > > >
one weren't. This will answer your question.
>
> > >
> >
> >
> > >
>
> > > >
>
> > >
> >
> > --- In Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx,
"Scooter"
<mariani@xxxx>
> >
wrote:
> > > > >
Super,
> > > > > I
did read Mr. Wright's series of articles as
you
suggested
> > >
> previously. I
> > >
> > found it very informative. I found that I was
already
> doing many
> >
> of the
> > >
> > things he suggested in developing a system. I
have
> applied many
> >
of
> > > > the
ideas
> > > > > he
talked about since reading the articles, more like
a
book!
> > > >
>
> > > > > He
does not address the validity of throwing out losers,
>
based on
> > a
> >
> > system
> >
> > > test, from an available list of potential
stocks to
trade.
> > >
> >
> > >
> > I know there are a cagillion system developing books
to
> read. I
> >
will
> > > > pick
up
> > > > > a few
to read when I have the time.
> > >
> >
> > >
> > Can you C&P system test results from
MS8.0?
> > > >
>
> > > > >
Scott
> > > >
>
> > > >
>
> > > >
> -----Original Message-----
> >
> > > From: superfragalist
[mailto:jackolso@xxxx]
> > >
> > Sent: Wednesday, April 13, 2005 8:34
PM
> > > > > To:
Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > >
> > Subject: [Metastockusers] Re: System Tester
Results
(Redu)
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> > Looks like you're using the systems tester
without much
> > > knowledge
of
> > > >
> systems development.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Read a few books on system design
and then you'll see
> you're
>
> > wasting
> >
> > > your time.
>
> > > >
>
> > > > There's a very
good article on this coming up in the
> May
issue
> > of
> >
> > > Roy's
newsletter.
> > > >
>
> > > >
> Don't ask for book recommendations because one
book
> won't do
> >
it.
> > > >
> You'll need to read around a dozen or so
systems
> development
> >
> books to
> > >
> > get a really good take on how things work.
Once
you've done
> > that,
>
> > > > you'll soon
figure out that using TA by itself is not
> the
best
> > >
method
> > > >
> for picking stocks to trade, the performance of
any
system
> > > based on
TA
> > > >
> is going to dramatically change each year with a lot
of
> losing
> > >
years,
> > > >
> there are no indicators that work even reasonably
well
> across a
> >
> > > variety of stocks or in changing
market conditions, and
> > searching
>
> > > > thousands of
stocks every night for something to trade
> is
in
> > > the
long
> > > >
> run a losing idea.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Does that mean you can't make
money using TA. You can,
> but you
>
> > have to
> >
> > > have a well thought out strategy
and apply the strategy
> > >
appropriately
> > > >
> for the market conditions.
>
> > > >
>
> > > > I'm amazed at
how many people that refuse to spend a
> dime
on
> > > >
> education, information, good data or anything else
that
> might
> >
help
> > > >
> them, but they'll pay a guru thousands for
useless
trading
> > > methods
or
> > > >
> lose thousands more making bad trades. It's
baffaling.
> > > >
>
> > > >
> You can read Charlie Wright's series of articles
called
> > > Trading as
a
> > > >
> Business. That will give you some basics about how
to
> approach
> >
> this.
> > >
> > Read all the articles in the series. They
all have
> something
> >
> important
> > >
> > to say.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > http://www.elitetrader.com/tr/index.cfm?s=17
>
> > > >
>
> > > > Give Roy's
newsletter a try. It's all about MS with the
>
code
> > for
> >
> > > everything discussed in it.
You'll learn more from that
> in a
>
> > few hours
> >
> > > of reading the back issues than
you will from playing
> with the
>
> > systems
> >
> > > tester for next few
years.
> > > >
>
> > > >
> www.metastocktips.co.nz
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > --- In
Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Scooter"
> >
> <mariani@xxxx> wrote:
> >
> > > > O.k.,
>
> > > > > I have
finally cooked the indicators enough (nothing
> new)
to
> > > come up
>
> > > > with
a
> > > >
> > system that is profitable over several
different
> period back
> >
> tests,
> > >
> > at least
>
> > > > > in MS. My
question is, do I remove the loosing or
> zero
trade
> > >
tickers
> > > >
> from my
> > >
> > > potential list of tradable tickers I
will run my
> Exploration
>
> > on when
> >
> > > looking
>
> > > > > for a new
trading opportunity? MS seems to be keen on
> >
"cleaning
> > > > up"
by
> > > >
> > removing the losers. Doesn't make sense to me to
say
> because
> >
the
> > > >
> tickers did
> > >
> > > not hit or make a profit over x amount
of periods
> they will
> >
not
> > > > make
a
> > > >
> > profit in the future. Or does it increase
my
potential
> > >
> profitability by
> >
> > > > removing them? Can I somehow
export the remaining
ticker
> > >
symbols to
> > > >
> excel or
> > >
> > > csv so I can adjust my HSQuote list
accordingly?
> > > >
> > Thanks, Scott
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> >
> >
> >
>
>
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> >
> > >
> >
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> > >
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>
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>
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>
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> > >
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> > >
>
> >
> > >
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