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I've read the Stridsman's and Conway's books and basically there isn't
any system in them that an individual can apply and make much from. I
liked the books. Stridsman tells you a lot about what won't work. And
my own test results confirm his.
Stridsman's systems are very hard to program in MS. However, I've
tested a few to them and frankly there are easier and higher
probability ways to trade. Stridsman methods do find some good trades,
but not too many and not too often.
Roy has a very good discussion of mechanical systems and systems where
you actually have to make a decision.
There a few simple methods of trading that will make most individuals
far more money than a mechanical system.
However, if you have time, money and programming ability you might be
able to come up with a half decent mechanical system. I've tested
something over 500 of them and so far nothing comes close to the
trading methods I use.
I've found that mechanical systems work better for hedge funds and
funds where there is a large amount of money under management and they
have to trade multiple markets to deploy it. In those cases they have
the money and time to handle the huge drawdowns of a mechancial
system. They're executing based on many mechanical systems at the same
time, when the system starts producing poor results they can discard
it and try something else, and their trades are carried out by computer.
Active Trader Magazine tests hundreds of so called mechanical systems.
I've taken the best one's they've come up with and tested them on a
larger market sample than they use. The S&P 500. All of their systems
looked bad when tested on a larger market segment. Even their good
systems had huge drawdowns.
If you don't have the emotional ability to look at a chart and buy the
stocks based on your judgement, you won't be able to stomach the
drawdowns of most mechanical systems.
Future's Truth magazine has tested and tracked the performance of many
mechanical systems over the years. While they've found a few that work
reasonably well, most of the time, when an individual starts using
them, they second guess the system and the actual live trading results
are far worse than the tests.
There are a lot of people on here that will disagree with me, and
that's fine. If they want to use a mechanical system and they're happy
with the results, get them to give you their system, and you can both
trade it. I've just never found one that I thought was worth much.
You have to remember if there was a mechanical system making any
serious money a whole lot of people would be using it. Think about all
the smart guys with unlimited amounts of computer time and money who
have been chasing just such a thing.
The simple trading methods outlined in Roy's newsletter work better
for me than all of the systems I've tested to this point. However, I
have an open mind and as soon as something comes along that beats what
I'm doing now, I'm on it.
www.metastocktips.co.nz
All the newbie's think they're going to discover some great new
system, or copy some guru's crap and the money is going to roll in.
Let me know when that happens.
--- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Todd" <todd@xxxx> wrote:
>
>
> Has any one read Conway's Professional Stock Trading or s Stridsman's
> Trading Systems That Work?
>
> I also have a question about the value of some of the metrics in the
> Systems Testing reports. Which do you find most valuable? I believe
> that some probably should not be used at all as they are
> either "meaningless" or could be misleading. Of course, I may not
> understand them so that could be a problem, but after reading a few
> papers on trading systems metrics, this is what I have concluded.
>
> What metrics do you use in addition to those on the reports?
>
> Thanks!
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