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Title: Message
For
the large majority of people who wish to make money from the markets, using
forecasting techniques is not the best way to go. Forecasting means
you are imposing your will upon the markets, and frankly the markets don't care
who you are. You are far better letting the market determine what trades
you make, and always being in sync and going with the flow so to speak.
Now forecasting can be a very powerful tool (via such techniques as Elliot Wave
Theory) ..but for most, a little knowledge is a dangerous thing. I have
been in the business of forecasting and trading for close to 20 years, just to
give you an appreciation of where I am coming from. So my comments
come from the perspective of reality, not some academic mumbo jumbo.
Winning isn't about looking back and seeing you picked the high for the
year. Almost every professional trader doesn't really care about trying to
pick the top and bottom of the market for the year. They are more
interesting in capturing all those little wiggles in between. The sum of
the wiggles is many times more powerful than picking the high and low. The
problem is that many times you won't pick the high or low. And even if you do,
what do you do with it? How do you know how significant it will be? What
if you had exited the market months before because you 'forecast' the top? What
strategy do you have to get back in? You can bet you will have many dates and
levels over a year that are supposedly supposed to be 'highly
significant'. Some will actually work out. In the end though, its
simply not practical stuff on a day to day trading basis, nor for
investors. It cannot be relied upon to get you into and out of
markets. Nor can it be relied upon to provide proper reward to risk
guidelines. It might make you feel great if you do manage to pick the high
or low for the year, but in terms of return on investment/adjusted for risk, its
simply not a viable way to go for 98% of traders.
Adrian
Adrian, could you be more specific why
do state that forecasting isn't
useful? From my novice point of view,
forecasting looked like the best
tool you could use to invest
successfully.
Thanks in advance.
--- In
equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Adrian Pitt" <apitt@xxxx>
wrote:
> Lets assume for a moment that they did pick the day of the
crash....
so
> what? How many other times where their forecasts that
didn't
eventuate
> in anything. How do you trade these
forecasts? They also picked
some
> major highs and lows in the
Australian markets many years ago...so
what?
> In practical terms it
is of little value for investors or traders.
> Successful people don't
make money off forecasts (except the
newsletter
> writers). They
make it by trading the reality of the market from day
to
> day, week
to week and month to month. All beginner traders should
> forget
the notion of selecting a marketer based on how well they
pick
>
turning points. Don't waste years of your search by pursuing
this
> avenue. While it may have some merit, it is more from an
academic
point
> of view than a practical one. By all means go to
the presentation,
but
> we aware they are slick and will market to
you their wares.
>
> Adrian
>
> -----Original
Message-----
> From: Dusant [mailto:cooldush@xxxx]
> Sent:
Monday, 21 March 2005 2:36 PM
> To:
equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: [EquisMetaStock Group] RE:
safety in the market
>
>
> Hormuz,
>
>
I have written a small article on Gann method of calculating Time
and
> Price. Going exactly by the book.
>
> http://www.geocities.com/cooldush/gann11jun04part2.htm
>
> It is very simple. There is plenty of stuff on Gann on the
internet.
> Google and benefit.
>
> As an aside, for
a foreign company holding a seminar in Mumbai is
pretty
>
inexpensive. A rough thumbrule: they would have to pay at least four
>
times the Dollar equivalent if they had held it in Sydney or
Melbourne,
> and six times more if it was Europe.
>
> Dusant
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From:
hormuz <mailto:hormuzmaloo@xxxx> maloo
> To: Metastock
group Metastock
<mailto:equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxx
com>
> group
> Sent:
Sunday, March 20, 2005 10:26 PM
> Subject: [EquisMetaStock Group] RE:
safety in the market
>
>
>
> Thought as much. I
guess their products would HAVE to
> be overpriced considering their
expenses in holding
> seminars in expensive hotels, etc to market
them.
>
> Nevertheless, if they could identify the one day
on
> which a major decline was expected, it sounds
> interesting.
Out of idle curiosity am attending one of
> their introductory lectures
here in Bombay on April 1,
> 2005 (quite an apt date).
>
>
Could you e-mail me some of their material if
> available with you in
soft format. Would like to take
> a look if possible.
>
Thanks,
> Hormuz
>
>
> -------original
message-----------------
>
> Date: Sun, 20 Mar
2005 11:34:36 +1100
> From: "Adrian Pitt"
<apitt@xxxx>
> Subject: RE: safety in the market
>
> The firm has a long history in Australia. While their
>
products aren't
> bad, they are more sales hype than reality.
Their
> products tend to be
> overpriced. I have purchased
some of their material
> over the years and
> I would say there is
much better value elsewhere.
>
> Adrian
>
>
-----Original Message-----
> From: hormuz maloo
[mailto:hormuzmaloo@xxxx]
> Sent: Sunday, 20 March 2005 2:01 AM
>
To: equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: [EquisMetaStock Group]
safety in the market
>
>
>
>
> Hi
everybody,
> Lately a firm called "Safety in the market" has
been
> advertising a course on using the techniques of
> legendary
trader W D Gann for investing in India.
>
> They claim to have
predicted the largest ever single
> day collapse on the Indian stock
exchanges which
> occured on May 17, 2004, one year prior to that
date.
>
> Also, they say they are operating in USA,
Australia,
> Singapore and New Zealand.
>
> Has anybody
heard of them before. Or taken their
> course.
>
>
Regards,
> Hormuz
>
>
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