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Complexity vs simplicity - it all comes down to the Occam's Razor
philosophy. The minimal approach, the path of least resistance, is
often the better one.
A favourite quote:
"Dilute simplicity, and it becomes complex" - William Schamp.
jose '-)
http://www.metastocktools.com
--- In Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "superfragalist" <jackolso@xxxx
> wrote:
>
> Why newbie's seek complexity is certainly a complex issue. There are
> a number of possibilites, including the ones you mentioned.
>
> Newbie traders look for anything and everything that will make them
> money. Once they find something, say a chart pattern, they get
> hooked and tell other people about the amazing chart pattern that
> works for them. The other newbie's are mesmerized!! It's deer in the
> headlights for the guru's.
>
> Of course the chart pattern doesn't work for 95% of the other
> want-ta-be's who try to use it--not because it's bad, but because
> the newbie using it can't explain all of the things that the
> computer in their head is doing to filter those charts. Even if they
> could explain it, others don't have the mechanism to compute it the
> same way. That's what traders mean when they say a system has to fit
> the person using it.
>
> In addition, some newbie's believe that doing a complex analysis of
> the market is going to turn up something that other people don't
> know or can't see--and it does. It turns up complexity, more and
> more of it. But they feel good about themselves because only a
> handful of people can deal with the complexity that they can.
>
> The opportunity costs of searching every plug-in, Gann method, chart
> pattern system or whatever is very, very expensive. As I've said
> before, it makes the tuition at Harvard look cheap.
>
> I can't explain why so many people disregard the simple. But they
> do.
>
> Here are my three rules of simple:
>
> 1. Simple is always the best.
> 2. Simple is the hardest for most people to find.
> 3. Simple is the least used.
>
> Here's an example: If the market is in an uptrend, something around
> 60% of the stocks are advancing on a daily basis. That means that
> any system generating a reasonable size portfolio should be able to
> find 60% winners--at least--especially if it picked all the
> candidates using a random number generator.
>
> Newbie's have been told to test a system across all kinds of market
> conditions! Doing that covers over the fact that when 60% of the
> stocks are advancing, this system is only finding 40% that move up.
> Duh! Let's skip that experience.
>
> That's why I recommend Roy's newsletter--it has explanations that
> anyone can understand and use now to make money. Unfortunately, the
> majority would rather keep thrashing around in the woods looking for
> a deer to shoot than to simply stroll over to the supermarket and
> pick up the sweet filet ready to put on the barbi.
>
> Oh well!
>
>
> --- In Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "metastkuser"
> <andysmith_999@xxxx> wrote:
>
> "There are easy ways to make money and hard ways to make money, 99%
> of the people choose to make it hard." -- I am interested in the
> psychology behind this. I believe there are 3 possible reasons:
>
> 1) because doing it the hard way (lots of optimization, complex
> system development,...) can pose an intellectual challenge to some,
> and this can be more "thrilling" than a boring system which makes
> money. Not good.
>
> 2) because traders believe that the "hard way", when it works,
> yields better returns than the "easy way". Not sure if this is true
> or not.
>
> 3) because the hard way give the trader a differentiation/edge over
> others using the easy way. Probably not true.
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