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Scott, I trust nothing but my own eyes.
Even so, there are times I have trouble believing what I see.
jose '-)
http://www.metastocktools.com
--- In Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Scott Mariani" <mariani@xxxx>
wrote:
> Jose,
> Point taken. I wouldn't put developing a trading strategy using
> specific trading tools in the same category with trying to write a
> novel using a random letter generator, may be my ignorance.
>
> Can you trust other authors when then they discuss their own
> observations on market behavior? If so, who do you recommend?
>
> Thanks, Scott
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Jose
> To: Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Sent: Sunday, March 13, 2005 7:59 PM
> Subject: [Metastockusers] Re: What to Look for in a System Test
>
> Scott, using computer power to devise a trading strategy is not
> dissimilar to attempting to get your PC to write a novel through
> trial and error, by combining all letters of the alphabet at random
> and see what comes up.
>
> Try putting together some sound logic (based on market behaviour
> observations) into your strategy, and then relate it to the real
> trading world, away from number-crunching.
>
> Imagine yourself in a trading room surrounded by 20 other traders,
> and only one of you will leave the trading room with a profit. Ask
> yourself, would number-crunching give you an edge here?
> Put things into perspective, and you'll save a lot of time.
>
>
> jose '-)
> http://www.metastocktools.com
>
>
>
> --- In Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Scott Mariani" <mariani@xxxx
> wrote:
> Jose,
> How do you build a sound trading strategy without testing an idea
> for soundness? This is where computers really shine?! I can run
> several different tests in minutes!
> Of course if the tests are bogus, what is the point.
> Thanks again Jose, Scott
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Jose
> To: Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Sent: Saturday, March 12, 2005 11:27 PM
> Subject: [Metastockusers] Re: What to Look for in a System Test
>
> Scott, it seems that you are attempting to develop a profitable
> trading system with the aid of a bunch of indicators thrown into the
> System Tester pot. You are unlikely to develop a sound trading
> strategy just by analyzing system tester results.
>
> Note that the System Tester has been named thus, to test systems.
> Otherwise it might have been named "System Developer".
>
> My humble advice is to forget the System Tester for the time being,
> and concentrate on developing a sound trading strategy. Once this
> is in place, by all means test it in the System Tester or preferably
> TradeSim. Don't forget to include transaction costs (brokerage/
> spread/slippage).
>
>
> jose '-)
> http://www.metastocktools.com
>
>
>
> --- In Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Scott Mariani" <mariani@xxxx
> wrote:
>
> O.k.
> I have been building system test after system test, trying several
> different combinations of indicators. Since I use EOD data I have
> given up on getting accurate exit values. I get a bunch of high
> losses which I attribute to the EOD data not exiting until the
> close.
>
> I assume the object of a system test is to have more winning trades
> than loosing ones? I have resorted to adding one optimization so I
> can look at the overall system performance on a total $$ basis. The
> only problem with this is that with the exits being what they are,
> my losses are humongous. I have been trying to find a system that is
> better than 50/50 but have yet to stumble on anything that yields
> more winners than losers.
>
> How do others go about analyzing system tester results?
> Thanks, Scott
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