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MB,
>I am a bit new to the group, but was absolutely amazed at the often very
>specific answers you received to the original, in my view, fundamental
>question.
I'm quite pleased. But yes, the different approaches need to be though over
carefully, and I appreciate your words of caution.
The reason for my inquiry was not so much the desire to more or less "nail"
V-turns. Rather, I was prodded by observations of price action that occurs
after sharp turns -- when the market has decided that it was really
serious, and has truly made up its mind to head off in a new direction.
Certain things seem to happen again and again. For example, there is often
a volatilty expansion in the direction of the new trend, not infrequently
with a strong close -- sometimes even strong enough to approach the upper
BB, or even to close outside of it. Many times price does not retrace very
much of this volatility bar, although sometimes the low is retested. What
kind of lows are traced out after the V-turn? What kind of tracks are those
freaked out shorts making as they grasp the bad news? What kind of highs
are made? Yes, there's often a pullback. How much pullback throws the
V-turn into question? etc. etc.
I was simply wondering whether anybody had codified observations of that
sort. In other words, would a kind of price action-based checklist help me
to get in earlier than an indicator?
>We typically use some long term trend model (that will only turn
>long after the market) to establish the primary trend and then use
>all manner of shorter term devices to trade around this trend.
>
>Anyhow, good luck with the trading and I'll try to post some results
>of the models mentioned once I have tested them.
That would be excellent. In the meantime, I've already found some helpful
information in RL's newsletter. The search goes on.
Cheers,
Philip
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