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It's like all the other plug-ins for MS. It's so, so. You're not going
to find a plug-in that makes money consistently in every kind of
market. If the market is in a uptrend, you can pick entries at random
and make money, if you have a rational exit strategy. So in an
uptrend, all the plug-ins work pretty good. None of the plug-ins make
much, if any money during consolidating markets, and if you trade them
long in a downtrend, you're going to lose your butt--not to mention
self confidence, trading account and the adoration of your spouse.
Trade Oracle uses a bunch of really simplistic entry formula's without
filters. However, as simple as they are, some of them work well in
uptrending markets. The trick is to figure out which ones work in what
kinds of markets, and then use those when you have those conditions.
Some of the simple entry codes would have performed well in finding
shorts in 2001 for example but would have done horribly in 2003.
Everyone wants to test their "system" across all three market
conditions and then decide if it's a good system.
Try this instead. Assume 2002 was a downtrending year, assume 2003 was
an uptrending year. Now assume that both of those years were abonormal
years. Assume 2004 was the typical uptrend year with s few pullbacks.
Assume 2001 was the typical downtrend year with a couple of brief
rallies.
Here's what you're going to find. In 2003 almost any long system
looked brilliant. In 2002, almost any short system looked brilliant.
2004 will show you how a long system really performs in a typical up
year and 2001 will do the same for a short system.
Now if we really want to make money, in 2001 you would have used your
short system part of the year in the downtrend, and your long system
during the rallies.
How do you know when to do this? Well, I've posted on that a bunch of
times, and it's really simple. However, there are some of people who
read the information and then immediately started posting wanting to
know where they could find a crystal ball that would tell them when to
go long and when to go short. I can't possibly help those lost souls.
What bothers people about the methods I suggested for figuring out the
up and down direction is the "lag." Well, welcome to trading. Yes,
there are going to be days when you're trading in the wrong direction.
Days--not months and weeks.
I just had one of those days. I had to dump a few trades hours after I
entered them and make nothing becaue of a correction I missed. So
what. I only have a few of those days a year and the rest of the time,
I'm on the right side making money.
Of course you can spend the rest of your life trying to find a way to
get rid of the "lag", or whatever is causing our lastest brain
aneurysm. However, you would be better off putting your money in
mutual funds and watching it grow along with your Chia Pet.
William Bernstein's book, The Four Pillars of Investing is the best
buy and hold book ever written. Get your self a copy and a Chia pet in
case the TA thing doesn't work out.
Here's my suggestion for learning to trade. Get a simple program like
Performance System's (the simple version of Trade Oracle) or Trade
Oracle. Test the simple litttle formulas in those systems the way I've
described in this post.
Learn as much as you can about filters, exit strategies and money
management by reading systems development books.
Take those simple systems and add a filter here or there to them along
with your own exit strategies, which can be as simple as a moving
average cross, or as powerful as an adaptive moving average cross with
a negative ROC.
Trade the simple system small, and as you trade it, you will learn to
identify the market types, (switch systems as necessary, please), you
will see what kinds of filters will improve the system's performance
and you will learn the exits that make the most money over time.
Then you can test your ideas in the tester to see what works on a
relative basis. Do not look at the tester results and think this is
"real". Those results are relative--not real! Live trading never
produces the same set of circumstances as the tester. The tester only
gives you information on a relative basis. If you don't know what
relative means, it's not your uncle Fred. Look it up.
If you practice good money management and get close to knowing if the
market is in a uptrend or downtrend, you'll make a little money, learn
what you're doing, find a system that fits you and actually become a
trader. Whew, wouldn't that be fun!
I sorry but there's no "make me a trader" plug-in.
Finally, here's my last tip--outside of cutting this out, reading it
everyday and posting it next to your computer.
Do not under any circumstances put your Chia Pet next to your
computer--at least not the one you trade with. When you water your
Chia Pet, you're going to have an occasional accident. Water will
damage your computer, and it's a real bad thing when your computer
goes down you just as the market makes a turn and you need to unload
your positions.
I've got five computers. Metastock is on three of them, and the Chia
Pets are on the other two.
--- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Peter Lazos" <peterl@xxxx> wrote:
> ETS stands for??
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Simon [mailto:sgrw@x...]
> Sent: Wednesday, February 09, 2005 10:26 AM
> To: equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: [EquisMetaStock Group] ETS for Metastock
>
>
> I have been searching for a 'real' review of the above product with
no luck.
> All I can find is sales literatue. Therefore, I would be very
grateful for
> any feedback from anyone who uses the product before I make the
purchase.
>
> Thanks
>
> Simon
>
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