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Andy, it's great to see all the right questions being asked about this
less-well known strategy. :)
Seasonality is always dynamic, and as you have pointed out, the
semiconductor sector seems to be more dynamic than most.
Part of the "LookAhead" kit will incorporate a seasonal dynamic
momentum plot, which is basically the difference between the last
seasonal and the previous one. This seasonal momentum will show not
only the direction of the dynamic element, but strength/acceleration
as well.
Both the seasonal and momentum seasonal will be able to be plotted for
up to a year ahead, and this also means that "hindsight" indicators
such as ZigZag/Peaks/Troughs can be applied to it and remain valid
almost all the way up to the year ahead.
I'll begin putting up some "live" seasonal sample charts up within the
next few weeks, when I have finalized some aspects of the LookAhead
kit. This kit may help traders rethink (the word 'revolutionize'
comes to mind) their current strategy, and it's taking some time &
effort to get it to the point where the whole concept can be easily
understood & applied in MetaStock.
jose '-)
--- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "metastkuser" <andysmith_999@xx
.. wrote:
Jose,
That's quite an accomplishment once it's done. There are so many
variables to look at if you want to predict seasonality. What about
cases such as the semiconductor industry where the cyclic boom/bust
cycle is getting shorter and shorter with each passing cycle... When
can put some sample charts on your website?
--- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Jose" <josesilva22@xxxx>
wrote:
Good question.
The "LookAhead" kit will be able to extract seasonal biases in any
market sectors for up to a year ahead. Any regular sector
rotations will show up clearly in the seasonal charts.
Other than Sam Stovall's theoretical model, I don't see any
seasonal predictions at
http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/SPSectors.html
... but their relative strength comparisons look very similar to
the URSC kit's
http://users.bigpond.com/prominex/URSC/URSC.htm
jose '-)
--- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "metastkuser"
<andysmith_999@xxxx> wrote:
Jose,
Any chance it will include sector cycling/rotation (or is that
the same as seasonal biases with respect to your kit)?
http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/SPSectors.html
--- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Jose" <josesilva22@xxxx>
wrote:
Seasonality is something that I've been working on for the past
four years.
Believe me - it is no easy task to implement in MetaStock. I use
a custom-made application to extract the necessary data.
I hope to finalize a seasonal kit for MetaStock sometime in the
next month or so. It will plot seasonal biases for any chart,
up to a year ahead.
jose '-)
--- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "tpab2" <tpab2@xxxx> wrote:
Could someone point me in the right direction to code for a
seasonality graph? That is, combining prices or perhaps a rate
of change in prices to come up with yearly, monthly or weekly
seasonal charts. Any help and or suggestions would be
appreciated.
Thanks
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