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> E Waves are great in hindsight.
>
> Read: Fooled by Randomness
Yes, so you keep saying and I agree, but respectfully submit it is you
who has the most urgent need for a reread as you have clearly failed
to grasp the finer subtleties of Taleb's message. Perhaps taking
a stab at some of his philosophical heroes might prove more fruitful?
If I understand your inferred objection correctly your gripe is that
Elliott Wave Theory is not scientifically provable, or more precisely
disprovable. This argument is silly; it is a fact that both
proponents and detractors should be able to easily agree upon. We are
talking about an art here, not a science.
Perhaps a more telling criticism is that all market behaviour can be
explained by the theory, for example by the use of non-standard
Elliott wave patterns that depart from the commonly understood 5-3
impulse/correction structure and consequently you can't know with
certainly when to enter and exit trades.
However, first of all this presupposes the existence of a trading holy
grail which I am certain sceptics would in any case tend to deny and
secondly ignores the fact that all the major theorists strongly
discourage trading corrections or where the pattern is uncertain, all
of course depending on your timeframe.
With the benefit of hindsight the analysis of wave positions allows EW
students to consider the possibilities for future market action and to
discount things which can not happen; valuable information indeed.
And the rules will give you a rigid framework for ascertaining when
you are completely wrong and by extension the right stop loss levels.
At least equally helpfully and as already mentioned an understanding
of Elliott waves allows the selection of trading instrument candidates
that conform closely to the theory and are in the fabled wave 3
position, all of course depending on your timeframe. Mmmmmm.
In terms of providing a strategic right down to a micro level insight
into market behaviour the theory is simply unrivalled. However, as
with all things a little knowledge can be a very dangerous thing.
As such I would urge people interested in the theory to study and
consider the literature carefully then follow market action for an
extended period to see whether you can make sense of it, rather than
rely on mechanical tools like the AlphaOmega plug-in or AGET. If you
are so inclined you may be too much of a left-sider to find value in
Elliot waves at all; nothing wrong with that of course ;-)
--- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, superfragalist <no_reply@xxxx>
wrote:
>
>
> Jose's code is exactly the problem with E Waves.
>
> E Waves are great in hindsight.
>
> Read: Fooled by Randomness
>
> When the market is going up almost anything works (70% of the
time).
>
>
> You have to get used to Jose's sense of humour. This is a perfect
> system in hindsight, but will not give you trading signals
real-time.
> The zigzag system will give you a signal only after the fact, once
> the condition of the reversal change has been satisfied.
> >
> > Dusant
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: Arifin Latif
> > To: equismetastock@xxxx
> > Sent: Thursday, December 30, 2004 9:40 AM
> > Subject: Re: [EquisMetaStock Group] Elliot Wave MetaStock code
> >
> >
> > Dear Jose,
> >
> > I am still not getting the output correctly, sorry I
> > am not that IT savvy. What I have tried was copying
> > your EW, EW count, and EW signals separately as new
> > indicators in the Indicator Builder... and the picture
> > I got (for Malaysia's KLCI) is as in the attachment).
> > However the indicators aren't giving me any insight,
> > e.g. the EW signal is flashing out like a seismograph
> > (Richter scale-like thing). Did I missed out any code
> > like "$ (login here)"?
> >
> > Apprecaite some advice.... cos if it really works all
> > of us can share it, if you don't mind. Al in all I am
> > expecting some kind of output as in Advanced GET.
> > Correct me if I misunderstood your codes.
> >
> > TQ. gracias.
> >
> > Arifin Latif
> > "malaysiankgb"
> >
> >
> > Normally $(login here), now exclusively free:
> >
> > AIT method - Advanced Impulsive Trading method:
> > Buy when Elliot Wave Signals = 1;
> > Sell when Elliot Wave Signals = -1.
> >
> > ACT method - Advanced Corrective Trading method:
> > Look for freshly-plotted EW troughs, buy in
> > retrospect;
> > Look for freshly-plotted EW peaks, sell in retrospect.
> >
> >
> > jose '-)
> > Yahoo! India Matrimony: Find your life partneronline.
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