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As an agnostic on this topic, I can say that I am intrigued by Connie
Brown's market analysis repertoire - she uses RSI, Fibonacci, Elliott wave
and Gann to produce S&P500 forecasts which are apparently surprisingly
accurate. Some of it is discussed in her "Technical Analysis for the Trading
Professional". At least one example of a serious and respected professional
using Elliott and Gann and willing to talk about it.
I do find that I am prepared to accept, at least as a hypothesis, that
securities price movements follow their own rhythms and patterns which we
can observe and try to interpret. Dow theory, Elliott waves, Gann studies
and Fibonacci retracement and expansion analysis are attempts to try to
analyze or codify these rhythms. It is up to us to assess how successful
these approaches are, but in studying them I believe we can build greater
personal insight into the ways that markets move.
Andrew
-----Original Message-----
From: superfragalist [mailto:no_reply@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Tuesday, December 28, 2004 2:17 PM
To: equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [EquisMetaStock Group] Elliott Waves
Sorry to disappoint you, but I don't have strong opinions about E
Waves. All you have to do to change my mind is produce the studies
from recognized systems developers, testers, etc. showing that E Wave
trading produces anything beyond mediocre results. I hear a lot of
antidotal stories from traders who say E Waves are the cat's ass when
it comes to trading. Prove it.
I particularly liked your statement: "The interesting thing is that
the most successful systems are often those which have been written
by and for Professional Traders often based on there many years
trading experience, and are systems they still use today."
I've read dozens of books on systems development by Stridsman, Pardo,
Conway, Kaufman, Colby and others. I don't recall E Waves being used
in any of their systems. I guess they just overlooked them.
Some real studies showing how well E Waves, Gann, and Murrey Math
work is all I need to completely change my mind. Got any! No. Why
not?
Here's a slide presentation by Tim Mayes, a professor of finance.
It's an introduction to technical analysis. At the end of the slide
show he mentions E Waves and asks the question do they work. His
comment that you can't find two practitioners that agree on the wave
count; and therefore, the predictibilty of anything, about says it
all.
http://clem.mscd.edu/~mayest/FIN3600/Files/FIN3600_8.ppt
Well,I guess the information on E Waves from the Turtle site was
complete BS. Why don't you send them an email and tell them to get
their head out of their derriere's.
The original post didn't ask what works year in and year out. It
asked about Elliot waves, which is what I replied to.
Here is a summary of my response. Elliot Waves are very, very
difficult to read correctly, if they work, which is far from proven.
The vast majority of people who try to use E Waves never seem to get
it right and quit after spending large sums of money on E Wave
software, books and training. No studies exit to document the
effectiveness of E Waves. The people who use E Waves to trade and
have made some money are very passonate about E Waves being the
grail.
So what about my your question about what works.
If you really, really want to know, you can subscribe to Roy's
newsletter. There's a lot of indicator, systems development,
exploration and trading information in there. And it works. Believe
it or not, the average human mind can actually understand what's in
there and apply it.
Unlike E Wave and other cyclical training and materials, it only
costs about $120 a year. That's less than the price of commissions on
a handful of trades.
To this point I haven't seen anything that says, proves or hints that
E Waves produce better trading results than a couple of moving
averages. Since moving averages have been used since trading began,
and are still used by an overwhelming majority of professional
traders, I'll stick with them.
However, Equis has a money back program, so any one who wants to try
the Alpha plug-in can risk free. If you can't figure out how to trade
with it in 30 days, you should send it back.
It's really that simple.
PS Here's a statement I made in my first post. Just like the one you
made, I like it too.
"For the those who love waves, instead of bad mouthing what I'm
saying, produce a study from one major systems developer whose work
is published, that says that E waves or Gann or Murry Math or
whatever gets the job done. Just one real, unbiased study from
someone who actually develops systems for a living."
--- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "mikesimmonsuk"
<mjsimmons@xxxx> wrote:
>
>
> I am sorry superfragalist but you are very wrong.
>
> In the UK, USA and Australia many analysts are using Elliott Waves
> very successfully.
>
> I have been using Dynamic Trader for several years and have
produced
> some astonishing results using the Elliott Wave theory.
>
> The Elliott Wave indicator in the Investors Dream software is also
> excellent in pre-empting trend changes.
>
> I agree that if you follow any system mechanically and blindly you
> will fail - however, if you are disciplined and take the time to
> understand the basics and interpret the signals produced using the
> Ellott Wave you can be very successful.
>
> In the UK, Elliott Wave theory is used by many major financial
> institutions as one of the tools in their technical analysis
armoury.
>
> You obviously have some very strong beliefs about the Elliott Wave
> approach which you do not accept as being viable.
>
> What would be interesting to hear from you is a list of the
technical
> indicators that you have found work successfully, and from which
> produce financial rewards year in and year out.
>
> I am certain that all members of this group would also like to hear
> from you about this, and would appreciate your help in pointing
them
> in the right direction.
>
> Regards
>
>
> Mike Simmons
>
> PS: The interesting thing is that the most successful systems are
> often those which have been written by and for Professional Traders
> often based on there many years trading experience, and are systems
> they still use today.
>
> Those systems written by software technicians without trading
> experience are often those which fall short over a period of time.
>
>
> --- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, superfragalist
<no_reply@xxxx>
> wrote:
> >
> >
> > Elliot Waves--plug-in--okay. I haven't used the plug-in, but
here's
> > my experience with waves of all kinds. They don't work. You're
> > wasting your time. There has never been a study published yet
that
> > shows that Elliot waves produce anythng but mediocre returns.
> >
> > For the those who love waves, instead of bad mouthing what I'm
> > saying, produce a study from one major systems developer whose
work
> > is published, that says that E waves or Gann or Murry Math or
> > whatever gets the job done. Just one real, unbiased study from
> > someone who actually develops systems for a living.
> >
> > You will spend countless amounts of money and time even trying to
> pin
> > down what an Elliot wave system is. When you get poor results,
> you'll
> > be told you just don't understand how the system works. Well,
> that's
> > your first clue. If you can't understand it in ten minutes or
less
> > you shouldn't be using it.
> >
> > The big banks have spent multi-millions looking at every trading
> > system you can think of including waves, AI, all kinds of
> statistical
> > models, etc. You don't see any of them using anything close to E
> > Waves. On almost all trading screens you'll find MA's, not E
waves.
> >
> > However, all Equis plug-ins come with a 30 day, no questions
asked,
> > money back guarantee. They honor it everytime. So you have
nothing
> to
> > lose except your time.
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > --- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "rvalue1" <rvalue1@xxxx>
> wrote:
> > >
> > >
> > > There was only one e-mail posted on this subject and I
appreciate
> > the
> > > input. Could anyone else using Aphomega Ellioo waves comment on
> its
> > > usefulness as a metastock plug-in? Really could use the
feedback
> > from
> > > this forum. Appreciate your time to send me your thoughts. Also
> > > interested in buying used copy from someone who might have
tired
> of
> > > it or found it not so good. Looking for version 5.0 for
Metastock
> > > 8.01. Thanks for your input..
> > > --- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "rvalue1" <rvalue1@xxxx>
> > wrote:
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > I checked out older archives on Elliott waves plug-in and
> looked
> > up
> > > > Aphomega site as they have the only Metastock certified
> software
> > > for
> > > > Elliott waves for metastock. Can someone who purchased it
tell
> me
> > > if
> > > > they like what they see and how accurate it might be for
higher
> > > > volumes and index trades? I heard that advanced GET was
pretty
> > > darned
> > > > good with its Elliott waves and PTI/ prediction for the 5th
> wave
> > vs
> > > a
> > > > double top.. I am not too keen to spend $2.5K on advanced
GET
> as
> > > of
> > > > yet..
> > > > Also would like to know if it has an exploration to look for
> good
> > > > correlated stocks that have decent volumes that are ready for
> the
> > > 5th
> > > > wave..
> > > >
> > > > Would appreciate some serious feedback..
> > > >
> > > > Rvalue1
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