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"Trade the BEST and Sell the rest..."
And guess what I've got sitting on my desk. Yep a pizza box... "You've
tried the rest, now try the BEST!!!"
Ok, that's neither here nor there but I thought the connection was
amusing... it's late and I guess I'm just giddy...
One of the things that I find to be of great help is to know why a setup
works or not, other than that old axiom of trading - "know thy self." We
all know that prices move for one simple reason, there is more of one
side than the other - buyers vs sellers. You can have all the different
types of setups, different indicators and chart patterns that supposedly
feret out great trades but in the end it's just measuring - buyers vs
sellers. Or at least where the sentiments should turn. Yeah I know that
we all know that but it really hit home with me (maybe I'm just dense),
when I started to daytrade NYSE stocks watched the books and the tape.
One of the more reliable setups that everyone talks about is the spike
bottom. It's very obvious on the charts... after the fact, and we say,
"oh look, that was the spike bottom!" You know the "hammer" setup? Or at
least I think that's the right name of the candlestick formation. Anyway,
it's the long shadow bottom with a doji or nearly doji head/body. The
mechanics of what happens on the floor is intersting, (well, while we
still have a "floor" on the NYSE...). There are several ways this occurs
but in general what happens is this, a large sell order hits the floor -
now that could be a flood of sellers (retailers), or an institution, or a
hedge fund trying to get short etc. Usually it's a mix - no kidding. The
market's weak, the stock is weak and the sentiment is down. A broker from
a house steps into the "pit," walks over to the spec and tells him he's
selling. The conversation lasts a mere few seconds but the gist of it is,
"what've you got?" "50 (50,000)," "I can do that, half at "x" and the
other half at "y." Now if he's the axe and everyone else recognizes
him/her or guesses that s/he's got size and gets a wind of a "sell,"
hmmm, you think maybe they'll front run the size? So the stock starts
it's descent. Usually a house isn't going to sell all at once, that's
shooting yourself in the foot. So they let go a little and the specialist
"works" the order. Remember the best specialists are those that keep the
price in a "tight" range and do the most volume (that is the job
discription?) - also "tight" is relative to the situation. Now we are
speaking of only one type of a setup, in this case just a weak stock in a
weak environment. If there's no real news then the only selling pressure
is coming from the size seller. So s/he can spoon feed the market with
the specialist's help. Unless of course he's looking for a natural - but
that's another story, actually size on tape is often just a fishing
expedition, an advertisement if you will, to the other houses. Anyway, we
are setting up for a "spike" bottom. So the stock starts to tank. More
and more sellers/shorters flood the market in anticipation of this large
seller needing to let go of more and more. Now when we used to have
"bullets," the daytraders easily got in front of size and would bang the
stock mercilessly, causing an artificial decline, but alas that little
well has been sealed by the SEC. But anyway, as more and more sellers
flood the markets for their own reasons (some panicking to get out, some
wanting to get short etc), the price spirals down. The size seller shows
up on the tape in regular fashion, they sell, back off, sell, back off -
thus the zig-zagging decending chart. And sometimes if they see a price
getting hit a little too much they buy a chunk. They panic the weak hands
(shorters) and you get a larger than normal retracement. Then they sell
back to the shorters that panic out and buyers fishing for a bottom.
Which may show up as a possible retest of the recent bottom. That's not
the spike. A spike is a fast and furious descent into the abyss where
everyone just goes market to get out i.e. PANIC (remember this is in
terms of daytrading). You'll see it on the intraday charts as gapping
bars/candles. What some would call an "exhaustion" gap. Now here's the
intersting part. This is when the specialist benefits from all the "aid"
he's given the large seller by spoon feeding the market as much as
possible and keeping the price reasonable. He gets the "wind" that the
seller is done. He's got the last chunk to sell in his hands, he's the
only one on the floor in that moment that knows that the seller is gone
for a while. He takes the chunk of stock, creates a spread down (the
spike in motion), panics the heck out all the weak hands who thought the
price might be stabilizing (you know it had that large retracement
recently?). He prints size and guess who's in that print? Buying with
both hands? Hmmm, I wonder, (rumor has it...). Well, at least that's one
of the scenarios. But they all fall into similar patterns for same
reasons - buyers vs sellers...
So the spike happens, the seller is gone, there will be zig-zags (yup the
attraction-repulsion psyche) but without the large seller to push the
price down to artificial levels, there's only one direction it'll go.
What do you suppose all the indicators like RSI, Sto's, 20 bar collaring
MA's are looking like? And what of the chart formation? Gap down spike?
The tech guys are picking up on the bottom, the tape guys are probably
already in and most certainly the floor is all over it. You'll see a
extreme retracement the other way. Fast and furious. The scalpers look
for an exit, size starts to show up on the bid and facilitate the up
move. The buyers are now flooding the market reversing the whole process.
And in the end we say, "hey look! A spike bottom!"
And that's one of the ways that I've witnessed a spike in formation. Ok,
maybe you knew all that but when I first matched this all up to my
indicators and vicerally exprienced the whole sh-bang?? That was an
exciting revelation. Well, like I said, maybe I'm the only one... yes,
yes, I need to get out more... LOL
Oh yeah, the reason why something stops working? Well, those guys who
kept your wallets lined with cash for a while don't want be so generous
any more - or... sellers vs buyers. Or the SEC takes away a nice "sweet
spot" i.e. change in the environment.
My 2c.
Good trading!
Rus
> Date: Mon, 20 Sep 2004 09:05:03 -0700
> From: Code 2 <Code2@xxxxxxx>
> Subject: Re: Purcahasing a System?
>
> Aberration and Catscan are old systems that are now in the public
> domain. I can't find the Catscan code right now, but I've included
> the
> Aberration code below.
>
> It's usually safe to assume that system developers 'trade the best
> and
> sell the rest,' so don't waste your money on buying a system.
> Having
> said that, Chuck LeBeau's stuff is reasonably priced and no hype.
> You
> can't count on his (or any other, for that matter) systems to work
> forever, but if nothing else, it will give you ideas to pursue your
> own lines of system development. Also, with proper money
> management,
> a sizable starting capital, diversification across a lot of
> contracts
> and nerves or steel for the huge drawdowns, Aberration can be
> profitable. It's certainly not for the faint of heart, though.
>
>
> Aberration:
>
> Enter Long
> ----------
> Length:= 35;
> StdDevUp:= 2;
> UpBand:=BBandTop(CLOSE,Length,SIMPLE,StdDevUp);
> CLOSE > UpBand
>
>
> Close Long
> ----------
> Length:= 35;
> CLOSE < Mov(CLOSE,Length,SIMPLE)
>
>
> Enter Short
> -----------
> Length:= 35;
> StdDevDn:= 2;
> DnBand:=BBandBot(CLOSE,Length,SIMPLE,StdDevDn);
> CLOSE < DnBand
>
>
> Close Short
> -----------
> Length:= 35;
> CLOSE > Mov(CLOSE,Length,SIMPLE)
>
>
>
>
> From: bane226 <bane226@xxxxxxxxx>
> To: Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Date: Saturday, September 18, 2004, 7:32:17 PM
> Subject: [Metastockusers] Purcahasing a System?
>
> I am considering purchasing a system such as Abberation, Catscan, I-
> Master, etc..
>
> Does anyone have a recommendation of a system that works and you can
>
> see the actual code? I am curious to see how the "gurus" right
> their systems.
>
> If anayone has any experience with a purchased system I would like
> to hear if it was work the effort?
>
> Thanks.
>
> --
> On a Scientist's door: Gone Fission
>
>
>
>
>
________________________________________________________________________
>
________________________________________________________________________
>
> Message: 2
> Date: Mon, 20 Sep 2004 16:10:59 -0000
> From: "bane226" <bane226@xxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: Re: Purcahasing a System?
>
> Thanks for your help.
>
> Excellent!
>
>
>
> --- In Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Code 2 <Code2@xxxx> wrote:
> > Aberration and Catscan are old systems that are now in the public
> > domain. I can't find the Catscan code right now, but I've included
>
> the
> > Aberration code below.
> >
> > It's usually safe to assume that system developers 'trade the best
>
> and
> > sell the rest,' so don't waste your money on buying a system.
> Having
> > said that, Chuck LeBeau's stuff is reasonably priced and no hype.
>
> You
> > can't count on his (or any other, for that matter) systems to work
> > forever, but if nothing else, it will give you ideas to pursue
> your
> > own lines of system development. Also, with proper money
> management,
> > a sizable starting capital, diversification across a lot of
> contracts
> > and nerves or steel for the huge drawdowns, Aberration can be
> > profitable. It's certainly not for the faint of heart, though.
> >
> >
> > Aberration:
> >
> > Enter Long
> > ----------
> > Length:= 35;
> > StdDevUp:= 2;
> > UpBand:=BBandTop(CLOSE,Length,SIMPLE,StdDevUp);
> > CLOSE > UpBand
> >
> >
> > Close Long
> > ----------
> > Length:= 35;
> > CLOSE < Mov(CLOSE,Length,SIMPLE)
> >
> >
> > Enter Short
> > -----------
> > Length:= 35;
> > StdDevDn:= 2;
> > DnBand:=BBandBot(CLOSE,Length,SIMPLE,StdDevDn);
> > CLOSE < DnBand
> >
> >
> > Close Short
> > -----------
> > Length:= 35;
> > CLOSE > Mov(CLOSE,Length,SIMPLE)
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > From: bane226 <bane226@xxxx>
> > To: Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Date: Saturday, September 18, 2004, 7:32:17 PM
> > Subject: [Metastockusers] Purcahasing a System?
> >
> > I am considering purchasing a system such as Abberation, Catscan,
> I-
> > Master, etc..
> >
> > Does anyone have a recommendation of a system that works and you
> can
> > see the actual code? I am curious to see how the "gurus" right
> > their systems.
> >
> > If anayone has any experience with a purchased system I would like
>
> > to hear if it was work the effort?
> >
> > Thanks.
> >
> > --
> > On a Scientist's door: Gone Fission
>
>
>
>
________________________________________________________________________
>
________________________________________________________________________
>
> Message: 3
> Date: Mon, 20 Sep 2004 16:11:59 -0000
> From: "bane226" <bane226@xxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: Re: Purcahasing a System?
>
> Thanks.
>
>
>
> --- In Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Tony <TraderSeven@xxxx>
> wrote:
> > Hello,
> >
> >
> >
> > > have an exit strategy and some kind of money management.
> >
> > HEAR! HEAR!
> >
> >
> >
> > > Now here's a thought. If any of these black boxes worked very
> well,
> > > every trader in every banking house in the world would be using
> them.
> > > The bankrts have thrown hundreds of millions of dollars at
> trying to
> > > find away to beat a guy with a moving average. Guess what!
> > Give a super performing (blackbox) system to a 1000 people.
> > 999 will go broke on it.
> > System bad?
> > Nope.
> > The person just questions the system. Hasn't steel nerves to live
> > through draw downs. And uses no money management.
> >
> > Liquidity. Lots of systems require you to have a good starting
> > capital. $50k as a absolute minimum. Some say $250k
> > Making 0.5% on 250K gives a nice sum.
> > Making 0.5% on 5K doesn't even cover costs...
> >
> >
> > VERY VERY few systems outperform random entries....
> > Try to write a system with random entries.
> > See the results. A very humbling experience.
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > --
> > Tony
> > A man should look for what is, and not for what he thinks should
> be.
>
>
>
>
________________________________________________________________________
>
________________________________________________________________________
>
> Message: 4
> Date: Mon, 20 Sep 2004 12:30:44 -0500
> From: "Lionel Issen" <lissen@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: RE: Purcahasing a System?
>
> Code2:
> Can't the large drawdowns be limited by using stops? When something
> goes
> down, it may not come up for a very long time.
> Lionel
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Code 2 [mailto:Code2@xxxxxxx]
> Sent: Monday, September 20, 2004 11:05 AM
> To: bane226
> Subject: Re: [Metastockusers] Purcahasing a System?
>
> Aberration and Catscan are old systems that are now in the public
> domain. I can't find the Catscan code right now, but I've included
> the
> Aberration code below.
>
> It's usually safe to assume that system developers 'trade the best
> and
> sell the rest,' so don't waste your money on buying a system.
> Having
> said that, Chuck LeBeau's stuff is reasonably priced and no hype.
> You
> can't count on his (or any other, for that matter) systems to work
> forever, but if nothing else, it will give you ideas to pursue your
> own lines of system development. Also, with proper money
> management,
> a sizable starting capital, diversification across a lot of
> contracts
> and nerves or steel for the huge drawdowns, Aberration can be
> profitable. It's certainly not for the faint of heart, though.
>
>
> Aberration:
>
> Enter Long
> ----------
> Length:= 35;
> StdDevUp:= 2;
> UpBand:=BBandTop(CLOSE,Length,SIMPLE,StdDevUp);
> CLOSE > UpBand
>
>
> Close Long
> ----------
> Length:= 35;
> CLOSE < Mov(CLOSE,Length,SIMPLE)
>
>
> Enter Short
> -----------
> Length:= 35;
> StdDevDn:= 2;
> DnBand:=BBandBot(CLOSE,Length,SIMPLE,StdDevDn);
> CLOSE < DnBand
>
>
> Close Short
> -----------
> Length:= 35;
> CLOSE > Mov(CLOSE,Length,SIMPLE)
>
>
>
>
> From: bane226 <bane226@xxxxxxxxx>
> To: Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Date: Saturday, September 18, 2004, 7:32:17 PM
> Subject: [Metastockusers] Purcahasing a System?
>
> I am considering purchasing a system such as Abberation, Catscan, I-
> Master, etc..
>
> Does anyone have a recommendation of a system that works and you can
>
> see the actual code? I am curious to see how the "gurus" right
> their systems.
>
> If anayone has any experience with a purchased system I would like
> to hear if it was work the effort?
>
> Thanks.
>
> --
> On a Scientist's door: Gone Fission
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Yahoo! Groups Links
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
________________________________________________________________________
>
________________________________________________________________________
>
> Message: 5
> Date: Mon, 20 Sep 2004 23:10:16 +0400
> From: "Eugene Labunsky" <elabunsky@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: Re: Purcahasing a System?
>
> >VERY VERY few systems outperform random entries....
> >Try to write a system with random entries.
> >See the results. A very humbling experience.
>
> I guess my system can be a bit better than RANDOM.
>
> 120 day by day walk test (all signals are OOS) -
> http://www.profitfromstocks.com/rnd/dell_lnr.png
>
> 3 randoms test:
>
> http://www.profitfromstocks.com/rnd/dell_rnd1.png
> http://www.profitfromstocks.com/rnd/dell_rnd2.png
> http://www.profitfromstocks.com/rnd/dell_rnd3.png
>
> Regards,
> Eugene Labunsky.
> http://www.TrendMedium.com - Official MetaStock Add-on
>
>
>
>
>
________________________________________________________________________
>
________________________________________________________________________
>
> Message: 6
> Date: Mon, 20 Sep 2004 15:18:01 -0400
> From: "rdb104" <richandellen@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: Re: Re: Purcahasing a System?
>
> spam..
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Eugene Labunsky
> To: Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Sent: Monday, September 20, 2004 3:10 PM
> Subject: [Metastockusers] Re: Purcahasing a System?
>
>
> >VERY VERY few systems outperform random entries....
> >Try to write a system with random entries.
> >See the results. A very humbling experience.
>
> I guess my system can be a bit better than RANDOM.
>
> 120 day by day walk test (all signals are OOS) -
> http://www.profitfromstocks.com/rnd/dell_lnr.png
>
> 3 randoms test:
>
> http://www.profitfromstocks.com/rnd/dell_rnd1.png
> http://www.profitfromstocks.com/rnd/dell_rnd2.png
> http://www.profitfromstocks.com/rnd/dell_rnd3.png
>
> Regards,
> Eugene Labunsky.
> http://www.TrendMedium.com - Official MetaStock Add-on
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Yahoo! Groups Links
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> [This message contained attachments]
>
>
>
>
________________________________________________________________________
>
________________________________________________________________________
>
> Message: 7
> Date: Mon, 20 Sep 2004 21:29:22 -0000
> From: "Jose" <josesilva22@xxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: Re: Purcahasing a System?
>
> Eugene, if you ever decide to trade your system signals, you will
> then
> understand what whipsaws are all about.
>
> http://www.profitfromstocks.com/rnd/dell_lnr.png
> Assuming no slippage (unlikely in the real world), less than 50% of
> the 32 Short signals in the above chart are profitable, and the
> majority of the rest are hardly profitable.
>
>
> jose '-)
> Proud to offer non-official, ethically-sound MetaStock add-ons.
> Proud to offer no trading systems for sale.
>
>
>
> --- In Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Eugene Labunsky"
> <elabunsky@xx
> ..> wrote:
> > >VERY VERY few systems outperform random entries....
> > >Try to write a system with random entries.
> > >See the results. A very humbling experience.
> >
> > I guess my system can be a bit better than RANDOM.
> >
> > 120 day by day walk test (all signals are OOS) -
> > http://www.profitfromstocks.com/rnd/dell_lnr.png
> >
> > 3 randoms test:
> >
> > http://www.profitfromstocks.com/rnd/dell_rnd1.png
> > http://www.profitfromstocks.com/rnd/dell_rnd2.png
> > http://www.profitfromstocks.com/rnd/dell_rnd3.png
> >
> > Regards,
> > Eugene Labunsky.
> > http://www.TrendMedium.com - Official MetaStock Add-on
>
>
>
>
>
________________________________________________________________________
>
________________________________________________________________________
>
> Message: 8
> Date: Mon, 20 Sep 2004 21:24:07 -0700 (PDT)
> From: ahmad albab <zam_html1@xxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: Re: only with $25 get paid untill $5250..here is the proof
>
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>
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>
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> from
> xxxxxxxxxxxxx (xxxxxxxxxxx@xxxxxxxxxxx)
> View the details of this transaction online at:
> https://www.paypal.com/row/vst/id=99H817734R030852F
>
> ------------------------------
> Payment Details:
> ------------------------------
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> Currency: U.S. Dollars
> Transaction ID: 99H817734R030852F
> Quantity: 1
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> Item Number: First Payment
> Buyer: xxxxxxxxxxx
>
> Thank you for using PayPal!
> The PayPal Team
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> another proof of payment recieve
>
> Dear xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx,
> This email confirms that you have received a Payment for $10.00 USD
> from
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> View the details of this transaction online at:
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> Thank you for using PayPal!
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>
> Message: 9
> Date: Mon, 20 Sep 2004 21:24:38 -0700 (PDT)
> From: ahmad albab <zam_html1@xxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: Re: only with $25 get paid untill $5250..here is the proof
>
> here is the proof.. u can check it if u have a paypal account..
> don't wait click here now
>
> http://www.DollarRandomizer.com/?bestone
>
> Dear xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx,
> This email confirms that you have received a Payment for $10.00 USD
> from
> xxxxxxxxxxxxx (xxxxxxxxxxx@xxxxxxxxxxx)
> View the details of this transaction online at:
> https://www.paypal.com/row/vst/id=99H817734R030852F
>
> ------------------------------
> Payment Details:
> ------------------------------
> Total Amount: $10.00 USD
> Currency: U.S. Dollars
> Transaction ID: 99H817734R030852F
> Quantity: 1
> Item Title: DollarRandomizer Payment to member bestone
> Item Number: First Payment
> Buyer: xxxxxxxxxxx
>
> Thank you for using PayPal!
> The PayPal Team
> Security Advisory: When you log in to your PayPal account, be sure
> to
> open
> up a new web browser (e.g. Internet Explorer or Netscape) and type
> in
> the
> PayPal URL (https://www.paypal.com/row/) to make sure you are on a
> secure
> PayPal page.
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> Message: 10
> Date: Tue, 21 Sep 2004 09:54:37 -0000
> From: "evg_labun" <elabunsky@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: Re: Purcahasing a System?
>
> Jose,
>
> I guess you missed that is not back test for some days. It's walk
> forward test. I did calc system keep signals and load data for next
> trading day etc. day by day...
>
> Could you mark not profitable signals?.. And then send me...
>
> PS. It's not adv. i'm trying to say - RANDOM trading system is not
> good idea.
>
> Regards,
> Eugene.
>
> --- In Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Jose" <josesilva22@xxxx>
> wrote:
> > Eugene, if you ever decide to trade your system signals, you will
> then
> > understand what whipsaws are all about.
> >
> > http://www.profitfromstocks.com/rnd/dell_lnr.png
> > Assuming no slippage (unlikely in the real world), less than 50%
> of
> > the 32 Short signals in the above chart are profitable, and the
> > majority of the rest are hardly profitable.
> >
> >
> > jose '-)
> > Proud to offer non-official, ethically-sound MetaStock add-ons.
> > Proud to offer no trading systems for sale.
> >
> >
> >
> > --- In Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Eugene Labunsky"
> <elabunsky@xx
> > ..> wrote:
> > > >VERY VERY few systems outperform random entries....
> > > >Try to write a system with random entries.
> > > >See the results. A very humbling experience.
> > >
> > > I guess my system can be a bit better than RANDOM.
> > >
> > > 120 day by day walk test (all signals are OOS) -
> > > http://www.profitfromstocks.com/rnd/dell_lnr.png
> > >
> > > 3 randoms test:
> > >
> > > http://www.profitfromstocks.com/rnd/dell_rnd1.png
> > > http://www.profitfromstocks.com/rnd/dell_rnd2.png
> > > http://www.profitfromstocks.com/rnd/dell_rnd3.png
> > >
> > > Regards,
> > > Eugene Labunsky.
> > > http://www.TrendMedium.com - Official MetaStock Add-on
>
>
>
>
________________________________________________________________________
>
________________________________________________________________________
>
> Message: 11
> Date: Tue, 21 Sep 2004 12:11:03 -0000
> From: "Jose" <josesilva22@xxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: Re: Purcahasing a System?
>
> Eugene, back test or forward test, your paper trade results are not
> that much better than random.
>
> I've used very conservative brokerage for testing your chart trades,
>
> and the result is a profit of just over 1%pa.
> If you increase brokerage by a fraction, then you're looking at
> considerable losses courtesy of whipsaw trading.
>
> ---8<----------------------------
>
> Dell Inc
> http://www.profitfromstocks.com/rnd/dell_lnr.png
>
> Bought/sold on Close.
> No slippage, no trade delays.
> $profit = no brokerage
> %profit = inc 0.25% total brokerage
>
> Results:
> 67 trades, 35 wins, 32 losses (52% win rate)
> Total profit: +0.75% (+1.2%pa)
>
>
> __ Date ___ trade _ Close _ $profit _ %profit
>
> 13-Feb-04 _ short _ 34.55 __ +1.19 __ +3.19
> 23-Feb-04 _ long __ 33.36 __ -0.23 __ -0.94
> 03-Mar-04 _ short _ 33.13 __ -0.00 __ -0.25
> 04-Mar-04 _ long __ 33.13 __ -1.93 __ -6.08
> 08-Mar-04 _ short _ 31.20 __ -0.51 __ -1.88
> 09-Mar-04 _ long __ 31.71 __ +1.34 __ +3.98
> 12-Mar-04 _ short _ 33.05 __ +0.08 __ -0.01
> 15-Mar-04 _ long __ 32.97 __ +0.16 __ +0.24
> 16-Mar-04 _ short _ 33.13 __ +0.12 __ +0.11
> 24-Mar-04 _ long __ 33.01 __ +0.75 __ +2.02
> 25-Mar-04 _ short _ 33.76 __ -0.12 __ -0.61
> 29-Mar-04 _ long __ 33.88 __ +0.04 __ -0.13
> 30-Mar-04 _ short _ 33.92 __ -1.71 __ -5.29
> 08-Apr-04 _ long __ 35.63 __ +0.16 __ +0.2
> 12-Apr-04 _ short _ 35.79 __ +0.46 __ +1.04
> 13-Apr-04 _ long __ 35.33 __ +0.21 __ +0.34
> 14-Apr-04 _ short _ 35.54 __ +0.71 __ +1.75
> 21-Apr-04 _ long __ 34.83 __ +0.57 __ +1.39
> 22-Apr-04 _ short _ 35.40 __ -0.56 __ -1.83
> 23-Apr-04 _ long __ 35.96 __ +0.35 __ +0.72
> 27-Apr-04 _ short _ 36.31 __ +1.00 __ +2.5
> 04-May-04 _ long __ 35.31 __ +0.40 __ +0.88
> 05-May-04 _ short _ 35.71 __ +0.23 __ +0.39
> 06-May-04 _ long __ 35.48 __ +1.18 __ +3.08
> 11-May-04 _ short _ 36.66 __ +0.21 __ +0.32
> 12-May-04 _ long __ 36.45 __ -0.65 __ -2.03
> 13-May-04 _ short _ 35.80 __ +1.44 __ +3.77
> 18-May-04 _ long __ 34.36 __ -0.31 __ -1.15
> 19-May-04 _ short _ 34.05 __ -0.14 __ -0.66
> 20-May-04 _ long __ 34.19 __ +0.43 __ +1.01
> 21-May-04 _ short _ 34.62 __ -0.72 __ -2.33
> 26-May-04 _ long __ 35.34 __ -0.21 __ -0.84
> 27-May-04 _ short _ 35.13 __ -0.07 __ -0.45
> 03-Jun-04 _ long __ 35.20 __ -0.20 __ -0.82
> 04-Jun-04 _ short _ 35.00 __ +0.13 __ +0.12
> 09-Jun-04 _ long __ 34.87 __ +0.23 __ +0.41
> 10-Jun-04 _ short _ 35.10 __ +0.05 __ -0.11
> 14-Jun-04 _ long __ 35.05 __ +0.63 __ +1.55
> 15-Jun-04 _ short _ 35.68 __ +0.29 __ +0.56
> 16-Jun-04 _ long __ 35.39 __ -0.63 __ -2.03
> 17-Jun-04 _ short _ 34.76 __ +0.14 __ +0.15
> 21-Jun-04 _ long __ 34.62 __ +1.20 __ +3.22
> 30-Jun-04 _ short _ 35.82 __ +0.69 __ +1.68
> 02-Jul-04 _ long __ 35.13 __ -0.20 __ -0.82
> 06-Jul-04 _ short _ 34.93 __ -0.28 __ -1.05
> 07-Jul-04 _ long __ 35.21 __ -0.37 __ -1.3
> 14-Jul-04 _ short _ 34.84 __ -0.30 __ -1.11
> 23-Jul-04 _ long __ 35.14 __ +0.20 __ +0.32
> 26-Jul-04 _ short _ 35.34 __ -0.03 __ -0.33
> 27-Jul-04 _ long __ 35.37 __ -0.02 __ -0.31
> 28-Jul-04 _ short _ 35.35 __ -0.12 __ -0.59
> 02-Aug-04 _ long __ 35.47 __ -0.30 __ -1.1
> 03-Aug-04 _ short _ 35.17 __ -0.13 __ -0.62
> 04-Aug-04 _ long __ 35.30 __ -1.16 __ -3.54
> 06-Aug-04 _ short _ 34.14 __ +0.07 __ -0.04
> 09-Aug-04 _ long __ 34.07 __ +0.44 __ +1.04
> 13-Aug-04 _ short _ 34.51 __ -0.32 __ -1.18
> 17-Aug-04 _ long __ 34.83 __ +0.25 __ +0.47
> 18-Aug-04 _ short _ 35.08 __ +0.38 __ +0.83
> 19-Aug-04 _ long __ 34.70 __ +0.16 __ +0.21
> 20-Aug-04 _ short _ 34.86 __ -0.09 __ -0.51
> 23-Aug-04 _ long __ 34.95 __ +0.24 __ +0.44
> 26-Aug-04 _ short _ 35.19 __ +0.35 __ +0.74
> 31-Aug-04 _ long __ 34.84 __ +0.63 __ +1.56
> 01-Sep-04 _ short _ 35.47 __ +0.26 __ +0.48
> 07-Sep-04 _ long __ 35.21 __ +0.25 __ +0.46
> 08-Sep-04 _ short _ 35.46 __ -0.08 __ -0.48
> 17-Sep-04 _ long __ 35.54
>
> ---8<----------------------------
>
>
> jose '-)
>
>
>
> --- In Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "evg_labun" <elabunsky@xxxx>
> wrote:
> > Jose,
> >
> > I guess you missed that is not back test for some days. It's walk
> > forward test. I did calc system keep signals and load data for
> next
> > trading day etc. day by day...
> >
> > Could you mark not profitable signals?.. And then send me...
> >
> > PS. It's not adv. i'm trying to say - RANDOM trading system is not
>
> > good idea.
> >
> > Regards,
> > Eugene.
> >
> > --- In Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Jose" <josesilva22@xxxx>
> > wrote:
> > > Eugene, if you ever decide to trade your system signals, you
> will
> > then
> > > understand what whipsaws are all about.
> > >
> > > http://www.profitfromstocks.com/rnd/dell_lnr.png
> > > Assuming no slippage (unlikely in the real world), less than 50%
>
> > of
> > > the 32 Short signals in the above chart are profitable, and the
> > > majority of the rest are hardly profitable.
> > >
> > >
> > > jose '-)
> > > Proud to offer non-official, ethically-sound MetaStock add-ons.
> > > Proud to offer no trading systems for sale.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > --- In Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Eugene Labunsky"
> > <elabunsky@xx
> > > ..> wrote:
> > > > >VERY VERY few systems outperform random entries....
> > > > >Try to write a system with random entries.
> > > > >See the results. A very humbling experience.
> > > >
> > > > I guess my system can be a bit better than RANDOM.
> > > >
> > > > 120 day by day walk test (all signals are OOS) -
> > > > http://www.profitfromstocks.com/rnd/dell_lnr.png
> > > >
> > > > 3 randoms test:
> > > >
> > > > http://www.profitfromstocks.com/rnd/dell_rnd1.png
> > > > http://www.profitfromstocks.com/rnd/dell_rnd2.png
> > > > http://www.profitfromstocks.com/rnd/dell_rnd3.png
> > > >
> > > > Regards,
> > > > Eugene Labunsky.
> > > > http://www.TrendMedium.com - Official MetaStock Add-on
>
>
>
>
________________________________________________________________________
>
________________________________________________________________________
>
> Message: 12
> Date: Tue, 21 Sep 2004 18:37:14 +0200
> From: Tony <TraderSeven@xxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: Re: Re: Purcahasing a System?
>
> Hello evg_labun,
>
> Tuesday, September 21, 2004, 11:54:37 AM, you wrote:
>
>
> > Jose,
>
> > I guess you missed that is not back test for some days. It's walk
> > forward test. I did calc system keep signals and load data for
> next
> > trading day etc. day by day...
>
> > Could you mark not profitable signals?.. And then send me...
>
> > PS. It's not adv. i'm trying to say - RANDOM trading system is not
>
> > good idea.
>
> Maybe I should add then that I never suggested to trade a random
> system. As a matter of fact I never advice anything :-)
> I will not trade anything without money management and solid
> stops. That saying should have written random entry.
> I never tested it on MS but I did so on wealthlab.
> Some stocks just works badly.
> But other stocks gave actually kept giving profits.
> Something between 3 and 23%. Not saying it's tradable.
>
> Your system example makes around 20% in 9 months. That's a very nice
> result.
> Maybe it's different for others but I I seldom manage to get in or
> out
> without slipperage. Considering most profits are small; performance
> will drop.
> When are the arrows drawn? When the bar closed I assume.
> So you should place them 1 bar into the future. i.e. next days open.
> I your equity curve calculated with todays close or tomorrows open?
> With gaps like around June 13th that makes a big difference.
> It's always whipsaws that kill profits.
> It's so easy to write a system that makes big winning trades.
> But those profits usually are eaten away by whipsaws
>
>
> Finally I wonder why (almost) no system developer uses money and
> risk
> management in his/hers systems. They are proven vital for long term
> survival and generally increase winning systems greatly.
> Not talking about (only) setting a position size to $5000 or 20%
>
>
> --
> Tony
> If a parsley farmer is sued, can they garnish his wages?
>
>
>
>
________________________________________________________________________
>
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