|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Adrian:
Perhaps you didn’t read my posts. The
issue I'm raising has nothing to do with Unfair Advantage, I'm a current
subscriber and have been since its inception. For commodities its got
Reuters beat all over the place and I even mentioned that the UA continuous
contract is hands down the best that you can create, if you want continuous
contracts.
I've got a folder of all the continuous
contracts of No. America back for several years and all you have to do is
visually look at the "unnatural" gaps from the end of one contract to another to
recognize that it is not the real world. Someone once pointed out that
several years ago silver was in a long-term price rise yet each individual
futures contract was in a price decline. It is anomalies like that and the
end of contract to new contract "smoothing" (no matter how you do it) that
screws up back testing on continuous contracts. The continuous contracts,
UA's or otherwise, do no represent the real world. As I mentioned before,
if it works for you then use it.
If you work with individual historical
contracts for a given contract month, you can find more profitable trading
opportunities than any other method, and not the Moore Research method
either. Bruce Gould has published a very interesting approach using
historical individual month contracts, but it is proprietary. All services
selling seasonals from Moore Research, to Bruce Gould, to Jake Bernstein and
others, do it with individual contracts and not a continuous contract.
Working with the individual historical
contracts requires a load of data preparation, maintenance, and
analysis, and that's why most commodity traders ignore it.
Jay
Yahoo! Groups Sponsor
ADVERTISEMENT
Yahoo! Groups Links
To visit your group on the web, go to:http://groups.yahoo.com/group/equismetastock/
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:equismetastock-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.
|