|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Nicolas Darvas' book was my first book on the education in trading
journey and still one of my favorites - "How I made $2,000,000 in the
stock market". (that was some time in the 50s or 60s by the way.) I
liked it more than Edwin Lefevre's classic "Reminiscences of a Stock
Operator". Recommend Darvas as a read to all.
--- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Lionel Issen" <lissen@xxxx>
wrote:
> There is a book with the title, something like "If it aint going up
don't
> buy it, if its going down sell it"
>
> A little while back John Bollinger was interviewed by TASC. He said
that he
> has found that no matter how good a company appears with a very
undervalued
> stock price, he wont buy it until the stock price starts to move.
He has
> found undervalued companies who's price has stayed down for months
and
> years.
>
> Warren Buffett has very structured entry and exit strategies that
are quite
> different to Tradsim's. In recent times he has concentrated on
buying entire
> companies. For this, Tradsim cannot be used
>
> The legendary Nicolas Darvas had a very structured entry and exit
strategy
> that was also quite different to Tradsim's.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> _____
>
> From: Andrew Tomlinson [mailto:andrew_tomlinson@x...]
> Sent: Saturday, May 15, 2004 10:52 AM
> To: equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: RE: [EquisMetaStock Group] Event "Cancelled - Open Cost" in
> Enhanced System Test
>
>
>
> The talk of coin tosses brings up again the issue of whether entry
> strategies actually have any significance. I've just started with
TradeSim,
> and I was startled by the implication that the choice of entry
system has
> little or no impact on system performance.
>
> To quote from the manual: "Substituting your entry system with a
random
> entry such as the outcome of a coin toss will make very little
difference in
> the net profitability of your trading system. In fact, using a
random entry
> such as a coin toss will most likely improve system performance
provided you
> have chosen a good position sizing strategy because more trades
will be
> taken compared with using a deterministic trading strategy."
>
> That's kind of a challenge for technical analysis. It implies that
> investment performance is all about portfolio structure and risk
management
> and that entry rules harm more than they help. It also implies that
positive
> outcomes for particular entry systems or indicators,(pick up any
copy of
> Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities), are the result of
selective
> or inadequate testing, rather than being real.
>
> What do you guys think?
> Andrew
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Jose [mailto:josesilva22@x...]
> Sent: Saturday, May 15, 2004 3:07 AM
> To: equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: [EquisMetaStock Group] Event "Cancelled - Open Cost" in
> Enhanced System Test
>
>
>
> Chance of getting all heads or tails in:
> 5 coin tosses in a row: 3.125% (0.5^5)
> 7 coin tosses in a row: 0.78125% (0.5^7)
>
> 50 tosses, chance of getting:
> a single run of 5 coin tosses in a row: approx 27.2%
> a single run of 7 coin tosses in a row: approx 5.4%
>
> jose '-)
>
>
> --- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "rvalue1" <rvalue1@xxxx>
wrote:
> > I have been using 80% of equity for a while and it works fine. It
> > shows a lower return because only 80 % of your equity is invested
> and
> > the final return is a percentage of your account. That keeps me
more
> > realistic on my expectations of what I would make..
> > Another interesting thing..On flipping a coin with a 50%
probability
> > of success, what do you think are the odds of getting 5 tails
(bad
> > trades in a row out of 50 trades) in a row? Very high - like
over
> > 70% with a Monte Carlo simulation; per Schaeffer. That shows the
> > importance of money management and sticking to a system for the
long
> > haul and not giving up after a few consecutive bad trades in a
row..
> > I flipped a coin 25 times and got 7 tails in a row, and
eventually
> 10
> > Heads out of the 25 flips.
> > --- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "jose_locatelli"
> > <jmlocatelli@xxxx> wrote:
> > > Tom
> > >
> > > I followed the recommendations in your document, and it seems
that
> > my
> > > system is now testing well.
> > >
> > > Thanks again,
> > > J Locatelli
> > >
> > > --- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Tom Sprunger"
> > > <tlsprunger@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > Andrew, J Locatelli,
> > > >
> > > > Some of your questions and problems should be covered in the
doc
> > > below
> > > > posted in the Files section on this group.
> > > >
> > > > Sprunger Guide to MS ver8.doc
> > > >
> > > > Go read it carefully.
> > > >
> > > > The v8/9 testers have a broker module. Equis attempted to
make
> it
> > > > "realistic". Yeah, right. Like anyone actually trades like
> > this.
> > > >
> > > > When the tester gets a signal it calculates the number of
shares
> > to
> > > buy and
> > > > passes it to the broker. The broker places the trade if there
> are
> > > > sufficient funds etc. Otherwise it cancels it.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Considered : means a signal has been generated.
> > > > Placed: means an order was sent to the broker for a
specific
> > > number of
> > > > shares based on the price on the bar the signal was generated
> and
> > > the equity
> > > > being used
> > > > Open: means the broker put the order in. If on a buy, you
will
> > get
> > > filled
> > > > if the price is lower than on the bar the signal was
generated,
> > > otherwise
> > > > you will not.
> > > > Executed: means the order was filled
> > > > Cancelled - open cost: means the order was not filled because
> the
> > > price on
> > > > the next bar is more (for a buy) than the price calculated on
> the
> > > signal bar
> > > > Cancelled- Position Limit: means the order was not filled
> > because
> > > you had
> > > > the max number of position already open
> > > > Cancelled - Zero Size: means you did not have enough equity to
> > buy
> > > 1 share
> > > >
> > > > There may be some others.
> > > >
> > > > Jose, on your specific question,
> > > > (Considered) at 15:50 you got a signal to buy 3494 shares
> > > > (Placed) at 15:50 the order for 3494 shares was sent to the
> > broker
> > > to
> > > > execute on the next bar
> > > > (Cancelled - Open Cost) at 15:55, the order for 3492 shares
was
> > > opened and
> > > > then cancelled because the price was higher than the price
where
> > > the 3494
> > > > shares were calculated.
> > > >
> > > > You are probably using 100% of your equity, right? So at
15:50
> > > when the
> > > > signal was generated it divided your equity by the price on
the
> > > signal and
> > > > came up with 3494 shares. On the next bar at 15:55, the price
> > went
> > > up
> > > > enough that to buy 3494 shares would have taken more funds
than
> > you
> > > had
> > > > equity. So instead of just buying a share or two less, which
is
> > > what any
> > > > real trader would do, it cancelled the entire order and you
> > missed
> > > the
> > > > signal. No trade.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Tom
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "Andrew Tomlinson" <andrew_tomlinson@xxxx>
> > > > To: <equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > Sent: Wednesday, May 12, 2004 7:33 AM
> > > > Subject: RE: [EquisMetaStock Group] Event "Cancelled - Open
> Cost"
> > in
> > > > Enhanced System Test
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Even better, if someone has a list of the comments that appear
> in
> > > the orders
> > > > report with explanations. None of them are documented in the
> > > manual. I am on
> > > > the verge of giving up on Metastock 8/9 as a platform for
system
> > > testing.
> > > > Too many undocumented bizarre little tricks to get it to do
> > simple
> > > tests. I
> > > > haven't done a single system test on this platform that I
really
> > > have
> > > > confidence in. Not a basis for successful trading.
> > > >
> > > > (forgive my bitching. Just spent another 4 hours yesterday
> trying
> > > to match a
> > > > simple system with Colby, with mixed results)
> > > >
> > > > Andrew
> > > >
> > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > From: jose_locatelli [mailto:jmlocatelli@x...]
> > > > Sent: Wednesday, May 12, 2004 7:30 AM
> > > > To: equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > Subject: [EquisMetaStock Group] Event "Cancelled - Open Cost"
in
> > > Enhanced
> > > > System Test
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Hi,
> > > > I wrote a system test and during the its simulation some
enter
> > > > signals are cancelled, with a "Cancelled - Open Cost" event
> > reported
> > > > on the Orders report, shown below. I didnīt find any reference
> to
> > > > this type of event in the help and in the MS8 manual.
> > > >
> > > > Can any of you explain what this event means? And how to avoid
> it?
> > > >
> > > > 174 23/4/2004 14:50 5 Considered Sell 3494
Market 2
> > > > Signal
> > > > 174 23/4/2004 14:50 5 Placed Sell 3494
Market 2
> > > > Signal
> > > > 175 23/4/2004 14:55 5 Opened Sell 3494
Market 2
> > > > Signal
> > > > 175 23/4/2004 14:55 5 Executed Sell 3494 Market
> > $2.8500
> > > > Open 2 Signal
> > > > 184 23/4/2004 15:50 6 Considered Buy 3492
Market
> > > Signal
> > > > 184 23/4/2004 15:50 6 Placed Buy 3492
Market
> > > Signal
> > > > 185 23/4/2004 15:55 6 Cancelled - Open cost Buy 3492
Market
> > > Signal
> > > >
> > > > Regards,
> > > > Locatelli
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Yahoo! Groups Links
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Yahoo! Groups Links
>
>
>
>
>
> Yahoo! Groups Links
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Yahoo! Groups Sponsor
>
> ADVERTISEMENT
>
>
<http://rd.yahoo.com/SIG=129l7hpvh/M=285832.4851039.5997748.1269404/D=
groups
> /S=1705375617:HM/EXP=1084729489/A=2142721/R=0/SIG=14di1pg12/*http://
www.hous
> eholdfinance.com/ln/TrackingServlet?
cmd_MediaCode=&fc=APS&mkt=000&mc=01PSYAY
> A004001B220000U0300L0020000000000&dest=HOME_PAGE> click here
>
> <http://us.adserver.yahoo.com/l?
M=285832.4851039.5997748.1269404/D=groups/S=
> :HM/A=2142721/rand=730842878>
>
> _____
>
> Yahoo! Groups Links
>
>
> * To visit your group on the web, go to:
> http://groups.yahoo.com/group/equismetastock/
>
>
> * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> equismetastock-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> <mailto:equismetastock-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx?
subject=Unsubscribe>
>
>
> * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of
Service
> <http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/> .
------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ---------------------~-->
Yahoo! Domains - Claim yours for only $14.70
http://us.click.yahoo.com/Z1wmxD/DREIAA/yQLSAA/BefplB/TM
---------------------------------------------------------------------~->
Yahoo! Groups Links
<*> To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/equismetastock/
<*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
equismetastock-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
<*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
|