|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Over 10 years about 200 trades--I didn't do the systems test myself--
I looked at the results--then I took the historical data and marked
my entry and exit points and calculated the returns manually to see
if I could read the siganls and how it worked--no, the data is not
curve fitted--it's really hard to curve fit a 20 dma and a 4% flat
increase--I don't know if it was tested on out of sample data--I
don't do a lot with mechanical testing because I've found that in
live trading not much of that type of testing holds up because people
don't trade like the computer (my opinion)--a lot of people have
tested this system on historical data every since Zweig first
published it--the results are half as good without the 20 dma--no
it's not fitted to the "current" market conditions, at least not over
the ten years I looked at it--that's all I know. The rest you'll have
to figure out for yourself.
Last question. What do I use this for? Well, I have several
indicators setup that give me a very high percentage take on what's
going to happen in the short term. I call that my trading bias.
What do I do with my trading bias. I use it to decide if I'm going to
act quickly on trend changes or wait awhile and whether I should take
weak signals. If they are toward my bias, I take them, if they are
not I don't.
Let me save you all time and email. I set my trading bias using some
VIX charts based on Larry Connors, Rydex Fund Flows, the VLE I
described, a five minute chart of the trading volume diff on NYSE,
and adv/decline numbers and a multiple MA ribbon analysis on 30, 60
and daily charts. That's about it. Don't email me asking me to
explain more, I won't. If you want to know about any of these things
you can find plenty of information, if you look. I use different
indicators for the long term.
Do I like this as a trading system. Yes, it's one of the best no
brainer black box type systems around. If you add a few brains and
some seasoned judgement you can make more than the 22% annually with
nothing more than what appears on your screen if you follow my
instructions. All this stuff is well known. I didn't invent it. I try
not to invent (re-invent) the wheel the way a lot of people on this
and other trading sites try to do, and I keep as simple as possible.
It works better!
When I am too old to read my regular indicators, and I druel too much
to sit in front of the computer without a bib, this is the system I
will probably use to trade. It will still be beating the crap out of
98% of the mutual fund managers out there, and that will make me
enough money to pay the retirement home every month.
JO
--- In Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Joe J." <jojab@xxxx> wrote:
> JO,
>
> Thanks for posting your work. I have a few questions for you:
>
> - How many times did this system trade in the 10 year period?
> - Did you optimize any variables? If so, how did the results hold
up in the out of sample data?
> - Since the gains are concentrated in the last three years of
trading, are you concerned that the system might be "fitted" to the
current market conditions and that the system might not adapt well to
changes which do occur?
>
> As a side note, does anyone have data that is older than 10 years
to test this on (you could substitute the S&P Cash index for the SPY
since that has a limited history)? I'd be curious to see how this
system performed.
>
> I am writing this email not to appear critical of your post but
rather to try to constructively analyze your system. I look forward
to your comments.
>
> Good Trading,
>
> Joe J.
------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ---------------------~-->
Buy Ink Cartridges or Refill Kits for your HP, Epson, Canon or Lexmark
Printer at MyInks.com. Free s/h on orders $50 or more to the US & Canada.
http://www.c1tracking.com/l.asp?cid=5511
http://us.click.yahoo.com/mOAaAA/3exGAA/qnsNAA/BefplB/TM
---------------------------------------------------------------------~->
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
equismetastock-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
|