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H
good to hear the market view from you
tim
"snoot"
>
> This week: Mon 6/16 a wide spread closing on the high on slightly
> higher vol that completely reversed the Fri down bar and closed
above
> 6/05. Note that his bar really doesn't close much above the
previous
> bar's high. It spends a lot of effort just making up lost ground.
> However this still looks positive but Tues there is no follow-thru;
a
> very narrow spread, a hammer, on higher vol, which was unable to
> reach the previous 6/06 high. So that's relatively strong vol which
> accomplishes little - effort vs result. Wyckoff would have called
Mon
> a sign of strength, but he would also say that if such a seemingly
> positive sign does not produce results *soon* it then becomes
> the opposite, a possible sign of weakness. Obviously this is the
> recipe for every double-top or H&S or triangle formation.
>
> Wed an up day on higher vol, the highest in 8 days since the
> (possible) buying climax, and a wide spread but the close is barely
> above Tue's high. However price is now at the previous high and the
> last 3 bars have closed near their tops. So one asked: Will we get
a
> breakout here?
>
> Nope. Several interesting things on Thurs: A wide spread closing on
> the low w/slightly lower vol which upthrusts the previous high and
> closes right at the bottom of what's looking like a bear flag
(green
> lines). Note how price is also unable to get back to even near that
> upper channel supply line (yellow) and closes below that middle
> channel line.
>
> Wyckoff defines a Trading Range as a Buying Climax, Automatic
> Reaction, Secondary Test. I've labled the present trading range,
> defined from 1685 to 1600. The ST has upthrust the BC and reversed
> and did so on substantially lower vol than that of the actual
climax.
> Unless there is a quick recovery this scenario would seem to
indicate
> weakness and further consolidation if not an even more substantive
> reaction before any kind of rally can resume.
>
> Fri a narrow spread on lower vol which closed right at 50% of the
> range (dashed line) and dropped out of the flag pattern.
>
> On the weekly this is the 3rd topping tail in a row, the close
right
> near the low. Very negative.
>
> The SOX, which has been outperforming the S&P during this rally, is
> now looking pretty weak and its RS line appears to be faltering.
>
> Harold
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