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Pablo
When you look at the fundmentals such as debt it is
an easier thing to invision.
Consumer debt, Govermnet debt, pension deficit,
Trade deficit. Then look at the lack of earnings going way back. I have a whole
other article on that one! See below...
The way I understand 2006 is an average estimate
for a secular bear market
Regards
Martin
"In our opinion, the breaking of the U.S.
economy's lastboom had one main cause: a sudden slump in business
fixedinvestment. But then, what exactly triggered this slump?The short
answer is a corporate profit carnage that hasbeen lingering for many years,
and that has worseneddramatically in the last few years.While Wall
Street celebrated a profit miracle, the realitywas America's worst profit
performance in the whole post-war period. The present U.S. profit carnage
started inearnest as early as 1997 - that is, at the height of
theeconomy's boom. In the following four years to 2001,producer prices
for finished goods increased altogether by6.8%, or 1.7% per year. Over the
same period, recordedproductivity in the non-farm business sector increased
by10%, or 2.5% per year.Under these excellent price and productivity
conditions,profits ought to have soared during these years. But
eventhough the economy boomed, nonfinancial profits dived from6% to 3.3%
of GDP, their lowest level in the whole post-warperiod."<FONT
face=Arial size=2>
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Pablo
Paolucci
To: <A
title=Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: April 09, 2003 12:12 PM
Subject: Re: [Metastockusers] Stock
Option
this is off topic, but take into account that no
one can know, what will happen in 2006, ythats thaories of time forecast that
are extremely innacurate
but if you prefer you can think of it like this,
if you cant se that it doesnt exist, trading on someone eleses analysis is
never good
P
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Martin
Blain
To: <A
title=Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Tuesday, April 08, 2003 8:43
PM
Subject: Re: [Metastockusers] Stock
Option
Freddie Pablo
I was wondering if you could help with a few
beginner type questions?
I just became interested in Options and was
thinking of using it as a hedge as well as short term.
I am hearing rumors from many different areas
that the bottom will be in 2006. One chart actually mentions Dec 26 2006 and
a 50% drop from here. I though a simple put on the DOW and NASDAQ would act
like a good hedge for my long positions. Using 5k as an example
for two PUTS leaps. First terminology. How would you state that. Buy a....
contract on the ???
For a PUT on the DOW does drop 50% I would
be up how much? Obviously if I am wrong it is all gone.
I suppose if felt really strongly about this I
could by Call options on Gold
I was following ticker (VESA )
UESQD.X PUTS late last week and noticed it is now at 1.90 up from
1.60. If one was used to taking 10k positions on a stock could one now take
2k positions. If so I would assume the most would lose is 2k if it
expired.
BTW I am back to using point and figure charts.
Regards Martin
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Freddie
Ng
To: <A
title=Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: April 08, 2003 12:18 AM
Subject: Re: [Metastockusers] Stock
Option
Pablo,Thanks for the advise for buy/sell on
volatility. You are right, the IV high-low must have a base for reference,
otherwise it is meaningless. If we can have a historical volatility
of the option IV, that should serve our purpose, right ?. Apply IV/HV will
then yield the ratio, if ratio <1, buy and if ratio is >1 sell. Is
this what you use ? Thanks for the Meta HV formula, on comparison,
I realize I had it programmed in my indicator already. It was kind of you
to point out that HV is for stock and not on option. I would have taken it
for option.The IV indicator you mentioned is referring to the
"option volatility" in the indicator drop down menu ?As for the
Greeks, as an example, say you bought a call, its price will rise dollar
for dollar with the stock if delta is 1, if the delta is near to zero,
even if the stock gap up, you would not see any up price in option. Such
position should be disposed asap. Delta of 0.5 has the max time value with
no intrinsic value. If trade is against your direction, for every dollar
of stock decline, option will fall by 50cts. Direction is abstract if we
can forecast direction accurately, buy simple call and put will be neat,
forget about other complex strategies in options. Then we will enjoy the
leverage in options, less outlay and high % return. However, volatility
could override greeks.Best RegardsFreddie Ng
At 11:54 PM 4/7/2003 -0300, you wrote:
I
actually didnt mention specific options soft on account your request was
related to metastock capabilities and use for options, the best options
soft is optionvue, or you can use the web service of <A
href="">www.optionetics.com.<FONT
face=arial size=2>there is other site like <A
href="">www.IVolatility.com<FONT
face=arial size=2>forget about the greeks in my experience they dont add
anything crucial to your trading, but volatility is crucial, this was
the reason i used the ip/hv ratio when i was still investing in options
in the american marketmostly you must
buy low volatility and sell (or write) high volatility, but the problem
is high or low comparing to what, so i started to use the ratio to spot
it fast, i dont have the exact code for the ratio with me, but you can
find the iv indicator on metastock quick indicator list and for the hv i
usethis formula: <FONT face=arial
size=2>Std(Log(C/Ref(C,-1)),10)/Std(Log(C/Ref(C,-1)),100) <FONT
face=arial size=2>make notice that while the implied is calculated based
on the option price the hv is calculated on the
underlying. about the
group/industry ranked by
their volatility, you can find in the sites mentioned by me and debra
that infomation i never used
it but optionetics is very much discussed and recommended inoptions
boards and usenet groups, but as a rule you should check the cboe
site Bye
----- Original Message -----
From: Freddie Ng
To: <A
href="">Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Sunday, April 06, 2003 10:13 PM
Subject: Re: [Metastockusers] Stock Option
Pablo,
Appreciate your valuable systematic explanation. Those points that
you discussed were very important in option trading. If it can
determine or anticipate the correct underlying direction, this info
can then be used to interpret the option direction. Call follows
underlying while Put is reverse. I also understand that not all
indicators are suitable for each stock and Metastock can search and
match the best indicator to optimized profit, I wonder if I had missed
out anything in Metastock for option.
Volatility(implied and Historical)
Keen to know how you use these info to analyze the option. I am
aware that one can lost trade due to volatility. You mentioned about
use ratio of IV & HV, can you elaborate a little bit more. The
option volatility indicator is for IV, how do you obtain HV in
Metastock.
Btw, do you have any good source where I can obtain the volatility
info. Is there any such listing of group/industry ranked by their
volatility.
Best Regards
Freddie Ng
At 04:07 AM 4/5/2003 -0300, you wrote:
Freddie,
on using metastock for options you have 2 problems
1 Data problem
2 analysis problem
1 since options trade for a short period, the problem arises,
you cannot
make any analysis for a while, there is 2 ways around it :
continuos
contracts (i tried them for a while , but they are not reliable
in my
opnion), the alternative is using intraday data, so even if you
can make
analysis on daily charts for a while, at least you can run
intraday an.
2 about the analysis:
you must keep an eye on the stock or whatever the option is
for
then you can analyze the option itself by common tech an.
tools
then you have to keep an eye on implied volaitity and hystorical
volatility,
for while i used a ratio between the implied volatility and
hystorical
volatility
check the quick drop indicator youll find some options
indicators
Pablo
----- Original Message -----
From: "freddie_ng" <n07476@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Saturday, April 05, 2003 2:00 AM
Subject: [Metastockusers] Stock Option
> Hi all Metastock experts,
>
> Can anyone enlighten me how to make use of Metastock to
trade on
> options. I own a Metastock ver 8.0, just recently upgraded
from v7.2.
>
> Best Regards
> Freddie Ng
>
>
>
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