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----- Original Message -----
From: jnk1997 <jnk1997@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, March 05, 2003 5:11 AM
Subject: [Metastockusers] Neural Network - Artificial Intelligence
> Has anyone in this group tried any neural network software such as
> Biocomp Profit, Neuroshell Trader or TradingSolutions and if yes what
> were your impressions?
> I believe there are one or two neural plugsins available for
> Metastock, has anyone tried these?
> I trade based on indicators/oscillators with my formulas but I can't
> help feeling that neural software might improve my trading results.
> All comments welcome and appreciated!
> Regards
> Jim
>
>
Hi Jim,
I did try a few NN programs a few years ago (none of the above though).
I think in the long run NN ideas can very dramatically decrease performance.
IMHO NNs is no more than a form of ultra-overoptimization (curve-fitting) to
past
data.
Even worse, if you overoptimize TA indicators you may very quickly discover
such a system doesn't work, probably even know why.
With NNs you're supposed to go on believing that after a while your NN will
start
working again. Well, maybe do some more training on recent data (sounds
familiar?) Well, maybe add some more nodes (=add some more indicators
and system variables to overoptimize even more (sounds familiar?)
YMMV but I for one consider NNs to be no more than overoptimized
bkacboxes. Personally I'd rather understand why my systems work and why they
don't work, what's the risk, DD, what are the chances it'll still work in
the future
etc. etc.
Best,
Yarroll
***
http://republika.pl/yarroll999/
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