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Anibal
i have often seen your posts on many sites where I am a member...
I think you are out to prove something...and you have yet to learn
many things in trading...it is not all black and white in trading but
many factors like human psychology, gut feeling, etc etc...in your
research you have just got a mathematical models very precisely laid
out,,,but then you cannot create 'humans' with a mathematical models
only 'robots'...
when you go out in world with 100000 punds and try to make a living
using the technical analysis to earn money to pay for your lifestyle
then it will all be so different...
So stop posting crude methods of trading...prove it first that you
started with 1000000 punds and you have doubled it in a time
scale...if not then you have a lot to learn...
You are a good mathematician and a good person i am sure but you must
prove your case...NOTHING else will sell to the traders and
investors...
anil
--- In Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Anibal Archenti"
<anibalarchenti@xxxx> wrote:
>
> Can you determine the change in trend with less than 5% of error in
price
> and more than 80% of reliability?
>
> I'm sure your answer is No. I have made this question to 12
professors of
> Finance at the best business ranking Universities in USA, some of
them
> answered No and the others didn't answer. Well in the next lines I
will show
> you that the answer to this question is Yes.
>
> If you study the difference in price 2 bars before and 2 bars after
the
> change in trend you will see that for the majority of the stocks is
less
> than 5%. Exceptions occurs for stocks with high volatility. Suppose
you are
> looking for a change in trend from down to up, you are looking for
an
> absolute minimum in order to enter long or by a Call. If you know
the change
> is limited to 5 bars you consider the lowest possible price you
find as your
> reference and when the price goes up 4% from your last reference
you decide
> the trend has changed.
> You can see in this situation is very difficult to enter with more
than 5%
> of difference with the minimum. In stocks with high volatility you
must use
> 5 or 6% but the determination is easier because the chart shape is
very
> sharp at the extreme and it is much more evident.
> If you use this as your entry point , and for your exit point you
consider a
> fall in profit of 20% if your profit is more than 15%; a fall in
profit of
> 50% if your profit is between 10% and 15%; or a profit 0 or -5% if
your
> profit is less than 10%, you will obtain an average profit of more
than 75%
> per month.
> You don't have to believe me, you can check all this with a very
> simple program in Visual Basic.
>
> Then the only thing you need in order to apply this technique is to
know in
> advance when the change in trend will occur in the next 5 bars with
a 80% of
> reliability.
> I will give you this information, I will give you every day an
average of 5
> predictions of maximum or minimum in a time frame of 5 days and 80%
> reliable.
> I know that I will receive answers saying this is Spam but I don't
care
> because my site is free, but think the possibilities, you can use
this
> technique in parallel with the technique you are using and you have
nothing
> to loose.
> For those that are so concerned about Spam or not Spam that will
not even
> check if all this is true or not, don't worry. this is the last
time I try
> to convince you about the advantages of my model.
>
> Good luck.
>
> Anibal Archenti
> www.stockspredic.com
>
>
>
>
> Ahora podés usar Yahoo! Messenger desde tu celular. Aprendé cómo
hacerlo en Yahoo! Móvil: http://ar.mobile.yahoo.com/sms.html
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