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Interesting
thread here.
I find it suprising that any one
contemplating full time trading as a career is not totally familar and
equally comfortable whether "positioning long or
short"
Surely this is crux of the whole
concept of being "a complete trader", I.E. the ability to
place oneself into the situation that enables profit potentional,
at any stage.
"Stocks go up by the
stairs and come down in the lift"
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>RA
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Nick Leong
To: <A
title=Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, January 18, 2003 1:41
PM
Subject: Re: [Metastockusers] Full time
private trading... ... an unattainable dream?
Thanks for the your feedback everyone. Maybe it's time for me to go back to
the old drawing board!
Martin Blain <<A
href="">martin@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
Nick
First I was only trying to make a point and
that is if you expect to make any money trading you will have to ride the
waves up and down. I really do feel that you must do what makes you feel
comfortable as a trader. You must do things that work to a degree
that makes you happy and gives you the rewards you want out of
this exercise. It is very important to get a feel for going short even if
you don't because there is people out there that make it there business. I
will concede that the short sellers are not out in full force right
now.
I have never heard the term scripts but if you
mean the stock must be owned by somebody in a long position before you can
go short than I would counter that point with the fact you can short some
stocks without an uptick such as the QQQ.
Regards Martin
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Nick Leong
To: <A
title=Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: January 17, 2003 2:32 AM
Subject: Re: [Metastockusers] Full
time private trading... ... an unattainable dream?
Martin,
I am adverse to shorting equities because it involves selling something
you do not have. Eventually you would have to close your position and
believe me, it can tremendously stressful. Also most of the time when the
market is going down, there are no scripts to "borrow" for the purpose of
shorting. If you can borrow scripts, it means that the big players are
preparing to charge.
Nick
Martin Blain <<A
href="">martin@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
Nick
As far as my back testing results it was a
pattern I saw show up repeatedly when testing long only trading
systems. I had only been testing 20 years and somehow got the idea
to try 30, to level the playing field so to speak. Both ways the most
common gain was 10% over buy and hold. You must remember that is a
smoothed result, I am not saying in any 5 year period you couldn't do
better.
I feel that by not going short or doing a
paper trade in place of a short when a sell order when it comes up than
you are doing yourself a disservice. Maybe its because going long only
requires that you be optimistic instead of realistic.
BTW what reason would you have for being
adverse to going short. I am assuming that you are watching your trades.
Lord knows that down is faster!
Regards Martin
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Nick
Leong
To: <A
title=Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: January 16, 2003 5:47
AM
Subject: Re: [Metastockusers]
Full time private trading... ... an unattainable dream?
Hi Martin,
I guess I would probably belong with that group as I am rather
adverse to "going short". While I am in no way doubting your
methodology or research integrity, I believe that no back test in this
world can substitute live trading. Unless of course you want to tell
me that you have actually traded for a large part of those 30 years
and have largely been profitable.
Nick
Martin Blain <<A
href="">martin@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
Nick
I am curios how often you sell short if
at all.
I find some are leery of doing this.
I done some studies with software testing over the past 30
years and "long only" you could probably do 10% better
than the market.
Regards Martin
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Nick
Leong
To: <A
title=Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: January 15, 2003 7:29
PM
Subject: [Metastockusers]
Full time private trading... ... an unattainable dream?
Hi group,
I’ve been reading some
articles about the hedge fund management industry and how most
funds sustained losses over the past 2 years especially since Sept
11 and the US corporate scandal. This is coupled with a statistic
I read that most novice traders leave the trading arena after
about 3 months. These events really got me thinking… … is it
really possible for one to be a full time private
trader?
I’ve been trading
privately for about 4 years not and like most of you I’ve had my
ups and downs. I am a firm believer that trading the market is a
zero sum game. Someone MUST lose in order for me to make a gain.
However, the law of averages dictates that it is just not possible
for anyone to be winning all the time. That being the case, is it
actually possible for anyone to be a full time private trader
(i.e. trade using only his own money and make a living out of
it)?
The only possible way
for one to make money is possibly to be engaged in the right
market at the right time, e.g. to switch between the
equities/futures/derivatives markets or switch between the
US/Europe/Asian markets. But we must also remember that a private
trader does not have the resources or the mental capacity to
handle so much information or research at a single time. What
option would be left then? To specialise and trade only in
specific markets and sit things out when everything is not going
well? Do not forget that a downturn in the market can last for
years.
We can go into the
nitty gritty and say that we must set up stops to prevent losses,
but I’m sure most of you have been in the situation where you were
stopped out too early or you had given so much room before being
stopped out that you suffered a painful loss. Don’t get me wrong,
I believe that trading and investing is an art and there is no one
mechanical way of getting the right results. Ultimately, we are
all looking for one thing… …PROFITS. However, I have come under
the increasing impression that the odds are severely stacked
against the private trader.
I look forward to
hearing from you guys on this matter.
Thanks.
<SPAN lang=EN-GB
>Nick
Leong
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