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No Jason.
Since you have to pay commissions (an entry fee) it is not a zero sum
game. Just look up a book on game theory.
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>Lionel
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Bob Jagow
[mailto:bjagow@xxxxxxxxxxx] Sent: Thursday, January 16, 2003 4:12
PMTo: Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: RE:
[Metastockusers] Full time private trading... ... an unattainable
dream?
<FONT color=#000080
size=2>Jason,
Futures
are zero sum [negative after commissions]; stocks aren't if you'll concede that
buy-and-hold is viable over the long haul.
<FONT color=#000080
size=2>
<FONT color=#000080
size=2>Bob
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Jayson
[mailto:jcasavant@xxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Thursday, January 16, 2003
9:25 AMTo: Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: RE:
[Metastockusers] Full time private trading... ... an unattainable
dream?
<SPAN
class=450521617-16012003>Lionel,
<SPAN
class=450521617-16012003>
Only
in the sense that you must pay commission on your trades. The market is in
fact zero sum in that there must be a buyer for every seller. That is not to
say that an individual can not make money, only that for every $ he makes
there is a corresponding loser somewhere else.
<SPAN
class=450521617-16012003>
An
individual has many advantages over the large institutions and hedge fund
managers. He/she can turn on a dime. Selling 1000 shares of CSCO will not
drive the market the way an institutional sell of 1 million or 10
million shares can. This is exactly where the individual can make money. By
learning to spot the signals that the big guys are trying to load or unload
large volumes of shares in a systematic way the small guy can take his piece
out of the middle of the move. If the small guy is trying to make money
picking the big turns he will likely come out short in the end but by taking
advantage of the overall direction the big money is currently steering the
price he can very successfully come out on top.....
Jayson
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Lionel Issen
[mailto:lissen@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Thursday, January 16, 2003
11:35 AMTo: Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: RE:
[Metastockusers] Full time private trading... ... an unattainable
dream?
The stock market
is not a zero-sum game, it is a negative sum game just like the pari-mutuel
race track. <FONT face=Arial
size=2>The money taken out is less than the money put in. This doesn't
mean that everyone must lose, but it does mean that to win you must be
alert.
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>Lionel
<FONT
face=Tahoma size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Dan
[mailto:amarones@xxxxxxx] Sent: Thursday, January 16, 2003 9:35
AMTo: Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re:
[Metastockusers] Full time private trading... ... an unattainable
dream?
Nick-
I have been trading off and on for about 10
years, both privately and as a CTA for a time. I am definatley on the short
end of the net zero game as a whole, but my dream of being a full time trader
has been revitalized and is on the way to being realized in the last
year.
Who knows, I may blow up the account and have to
start over again at some point, but my experience in trading tells me
I've finally found what works for me. I think that is the key - what
works for each trader. I spent what feels like a lifetime with everything in
the trading world that didn't work for me.
I disagree that one must switch markets to be
consistently successful. If any market has the characteristics of orderly
accumulation and distribution and sufficient liquidity, then it can
be consistently traded.The markets on the U.S. futures and equity
exchanges offer too many issues and markets that exhibit these characteristics
for me to consider trading more than just the cream of the crop. I don't think
it is necessary to switch from domestic to foreign markets and from equities
to futures to be successful - there are so many market personalities within
each of those sectors, that the opportunities are far more than I have the
capacity to consider.
For me it would be ludicrous to ignore either the
long or short side of the market because it would mean giving up half the
potential profits. I use a 100% mechanical system developed with Metastock
that averages 76% winners. It's not perfect, but it backtested an average
gain of 240% annually over the last 2 years and is perfoming as
advertised in real trading.
For me the clouds have lifted and I can finally
see the dream of being a full time successful trader on the way to being
realized.
Dan Edens
From: <A title=zaiguy@xxxxxxxxx
href="">Nick Leong
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
To: <A
title=Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Wednesday, January 15, 2003 4:29
PM
Subject: [Metastockusers] Full time
private trading... ... an unattainable dream?
Hi group,
I’ve been reading some articles
about the hedge fund management industry and how most funds sustained losses
over the past 2 years especially since Sept 11 and the US corporate scandal.
This is coupled with a statistic I read that most novice traders leave the
trading arena after about 3 months. These events really got me thinking… …
is it really possible for one to be a full time private trader?
I’ve been trading privately for
about 4 years not and like most of you I’ve had my ups and downs. I am a
firm believer that trading the market is a zero sum game. Someone MUST lose
in order for me to make a gain. However, the law of averages dictates that
it is just not possible for anyone to be winning all the time. That being
the case, is it actually possible for anyone to be a full time private
trader (i.e. trade using only his own money and make a living out of
it)?
The only possible way for one to
make money is possibly to be engaged in the right market at the right time,
e.g. to switch between the equities/futures/derivatives markets or switch
between the US/Europe/Asian markets. But we must also remember that a
private trader does not have the resources or the mental capacity to handle
so much information or research at a single time. What option would be left
then? To specialise and trade only in specific markets and sit things out
when everything is not going well? Do not forget that a downturn in the
market can last for years.
We can go into the nitty gritty
and say that we must set up stops to prevent losses, but I’m sure most of
you have been in the situation where you were stopped out too early or you
had given so much room before being stopped out that you suffered a painful
loss. Don’t get me wrong, I believe that trading and investing is an art and
there is no one mechanical way of getting the right results. Ultimately, we
are all looking for one thing… …PROFITS. However, I have come under the
increasing impression that the odds are severely stacked against the private
trader.
I look forward to hearing from
you guys on this matter.
Thanks.
<SPAN lang=EN-GB
>Nick
Leong
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