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FYI
Lionel Issen
-----Original Message-----
From: kalyram [mailto:kalyraman@xxxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Sunday, March 24, 2002 7:16 AM
To: HoustonInvestors@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [HoustonInvestors] "Market danger" by George Laigle
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The VIX has dropped below 20 on Friday. It has been that low only 3
other times in the last 3 years. Please confirm this data for
yourselves by calling up the VIX and SPY charts in Bigcharts. In late
July of 1999, the VIX broke down thru 20, and the SPY dropped 12%
over the next 3 months from 142 down to 125. In Dec. 1999, VIX
dropped below 20, and SPY dropped from 148 to 134 over 2 months for
decline of 9.5%. Ditto Sept. 2000- SPY dropped from 153 to 109 over
next 7 months for decline of 29%. In late June 2000, VIX touched 20,
but didn't go below, but SPY dropped 23% from 124 to 95, with Sept 11
probably accounting for about 15 points, for total 3 mo. decline of
23%. Past is not always prologue, but those of you who are long
should not ignore this indicator. Notice that except for the 9-11
aberration, the declines have averaged between 4% to 4.5% per month,
and no decline was shorter than 2 months. Pass it on.
Regards,
George Laigle
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