|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Hi gang-
Got this newsletter from TSA group. They have a new
Metastock plug-in that looks promising (industry groups, multiple system
testing, etc.) Please see below...
----- Original Message -----
From: <A
title=news@xxxxxxxxxxxx href="mailto:news@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>TSA Group
To: <A title=sdugas@xxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:sdugas@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>sdugas@xxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Thursday, November 29, 2001 12:30 AM
Subject: TSA Group Newsletter #12-01
<A
href="http://www.tsagroup.com/index.html";><IMG height=78
src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/header_logo.gif"; width=188
border=0>
<IMG height=9
src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/buffer.png"; width=1
border=0>
<IMG height=1
src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/buffer.png"; width=2
border=0>
<IMG height=78
src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/header_right.png"; width=3
border=0>
<IMG height=45
src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/buffer.png"; width=1
border=0>
<IMG height=39
src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/cot-banner1.gif"; width=385
border=0>
<IMG height=3
src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/buffer.png"; width=1
border=0>
<IMG height=1
src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/buffer.png"; width=500
border=0>
<IMG height=21
src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/buffer.png"; width=1
border=0>
<FONT face=arial size=2
font-color="#AC7113">Volume 1, Newsletter 12-01, November 28,
2001
<TD vAlign=center
bgColor=#fef9d8>
In this issue:
Welcome<A
href="#spy">SpyGlass has arrived!<A
href="#cot">Commitment of Traders
New Website<A
href="#feature">Feature: "Confirmation"<A
href="#seminar">New York seminar <A
name=welcome>
<IMG height=27
src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd_left.png";
width=8 border=0>
<TD vAlign=center
background=http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd.png><FONT
face=arial,helvetica,verdana color=#026e49
size=3>Welcome
<IMG height=27
src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd_right.png";
width=8 border=0>
<TD
background=http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd_ctr_left.png><IMG
height=1 src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/buffer.png";
width=8 border=0>
<IMG height=1
src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/buffer.png"; width=675
border=0>
Welcome to issue
#12-01 of the TSAGroup newsletter!<FONT
face=arial,helvetica,verdana size=2>If, for any reason, this newsletter
does not display properly, please <A
href="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/news12-01.html";>click
here.So
much has transpired here at Trading Systems Analysis Group (TSAG), we
hardly know where to begin. By the look of our newsletter and new website,
we don't blame you if you don't remember us! We know its been a long time,
but we're sure you'll find the wait was worth it.Our new HTML
formatted newsletter is not just to take up more of your bandwidth. We
elected to use this format so we could send you those articles you like,
complete with graphics and charts. Our goal will be to provide you the
most valuable content, with the fastest download speed possible.As
always, we take suggestions for future developments at <A
href="mailto:suggest@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>suggest@xxxxxxxxxxxx. Please
feel free to email us with article suggestions and requests,
also.If you have any feedback on our newsletter (or disagree with
something we've published), we welcome your comments. Please send all
comments to <A
href="mailto:tsag@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>tsag@xxxxxxxxxxxx. We look
forward to hearing your opinion.Again, welcome back to TSAGroup.
We're confident you will appreciate the hard work we have done. Read
on!
<TD
background=http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd_ctr_right.png><IMG
height=1 src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/buffer.png";
width=8 border=0>
<IMG height=5
src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd_btm_left.png";
width=8 border=0>
<TD
background=http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd_btm_center.png><IMG
height=5 src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/buffer.png";
width=1 border=0>
<IMG height=5
src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd_btm_right.png";
width=8 border=0>
<IMG height=27
src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd_left.png";
width=8 border=0>
<TD vAlign=center
background=http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd.png><FONT
face=arial,helvetica,verdana color=#026e49 size=3>Product
Release
<IMG height=27
src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd_right.png";
width=8 border=0>
<TD
background=http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd_ctr_left.png><IMG
height=1 src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/buffer.png";
width=8 border=0>
<IMG height=1
src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/buffer.png";
width=660 border=0>
<A
href="http://www.tsagroup.com/spy/index.html";><IMG height=64
hspace=15
src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/SpyGla1.png";
width=64 border=0>
<FONT
face=arial,helvetica,verdana color=red size=4>Announcing SpyGlass
Market Toolbox for MetaStock!
<FONT face=arial,helvetica,verdana
size=2>It doesn't take long as a user of MetaStock to find out
there are many vitally important and powerful features
missing. The
SpyGlass Market Toolbox plug-in for MetaStock®
enhances MetaStock's power dramatically by adding industry folders,
industry indices, broad market calculations, and also adding three
additional trading systems. SpyGlass features include:
Industry
Groups - Organizes your securities in folders using the
MetaStock Data CD (comes with MetaStock).
External
Relative Strength (ERSA) - Calculates the popular External
Relative Strength indicator (similar to Investor's Business Daily
relative strength ranking).
Broad
Market - Calculates Broad Market numbers such as A/D Line,
% of stocks above a moving average, etc. Works on any market as
long as you provide the data.
Folder
Averages - Calculates the average price of all securities
in a folder (a.k.a. Industry Indices). Find out which industry
groups are performing best, then find the best stocks within those
groups.
Trading
Systems - Our three favorite trading systems.
Multiple
Security System Tester - Improves upon the MetaStock
System Tester in many ways. Upgrade includes commission, interest,
stops.
<A
href="http://www.tsagroup.com/spy/shark.html";>Fundamental
Analysis (ValuShark) - After the last year, don't you want
to see the fundamentals now?
Formulas
(EOD Toolkit) - Cool user requests.
For more
information, and to order, <A
href="http://www.tsagroup.com/spy/index.html";>visit the website
product page!
<TD
background=http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd_ctr_right.png><IMG
height=1 src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/buffer.png";
width=8 border=0>
<IMG height=5
src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd_btm_left.png";
width=8 border=0>
<TD
background=http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd_btm_center.png><IMG
height=5 src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/buffer.png";
width=1 border=0>
<IMG height=5
src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd_btm_right.png";
width=8 border=0>
<IMG height=27
src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd_left.png";
width=8 border=0>
<TD vAlign=center
background=http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd.png><FONT
face=arial,helvetica,verdana color=#026e49 size=3>Commitment of
Traders
<IMG height=27
src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd_right.png";
width=8 border=0>
<TD
background=http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd_ctr_left.png><IMG
height=1 src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/buffer.png";
width=8 border=0>
<IMG height=1
src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/buffer.png";
width=660 border=0>
<FONT face=arial,helvetica,verdana color=red
size=4>Commitment of Traders Data
Services
Those of you longtime
TSAGroup patrons that are Commodities and Futures traders
(that also happen to own MetaStock or Tradestation!) will be glad to
know that someone has finally provided Commitment of Traders
(COT) data in a format compatible for direct import and
analysis. That's right! We did it!! For the past several months
we have been working hard to convert the almost unusable CFTC
reports into a meaningful format that you can use to augment and
confirm your price data analysis. Historical data is also
available dating back to 1986!
Not sure what Commitment of Traders is? No problem. We
have lots of great resources on the <A
href="http://www.tsagroup.com";>TSAGroup website that will
help you, and provide insight why COT information is so valuable. As
a matter of fact, this newsletter's featured article illustrates
much of the value of COT information (not tied directly to
price).
SPECIAL
INTRODUCTORY OFFER THROUGH DECEMBER 5th! - Subscribe to
the monthly COT data service ($9.95/month), and get the Historical
package for a one-time charge of $59 (regularly $99). For more
information or to sign up, <A
href="http://www.tsagroup.com/datasvc.html";>click
here.
<TD
background=http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd_ctr_right.png><IMG
height=1 src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/buffer.png";
width=8 border=0>
<IMG height=5
src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd_btm_left.png";
width=8 border=0>
<TD
background=http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd_btm_center.png><IMG
height=5 src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/buffer.png";
width=1 border=0>
<IMG height=5
src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd_btm_right.png";
width=8 border=0>
<IMG height=27
src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd_left.png";
width=8 border=0>
<TD vAlign=center
background=http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd.png><FONT
face=arial,helvetica,verdana color=#026e49 size=3>TSAGroup
On-The-Web
<IMG height=27
src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd_right.png";
width=8 border=0>
<TD
background=http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd_ctr_left.png><IMG
height=1 src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/buffer.png";
width=8 border=0>
<IMG height=1
src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/buffer.png";
width=660 border=0>
<FONT face=arial,helvetica,verdana color=red
size=4>New TSAGroup Website!
Many months, and a lot of work later, we at TSAGroup are proud
to unveil our brand new website. We have automated many of the
functions that used to be manually processed, and our product
fulfillment is now fully automated, so that you can purchase,
and instantly download.
Below are a few of the new features, but we would love it if you
would take the time to visit
us on the web, and see for yourself all the new features,
and the sense of community we have developed.
New Member
Center - Everything our customers need. Downloading, news
and Information, and tutorials.
New
Forums - All new moderated forums with email replies,
membership, bad word filters, and much more!
Automated
product fulfillment - Purchase now, download now!
Expanded Free
area - New freebies with formatting that allows you to
cut-and-paste code.
<A
href="http://www.tsagroup.com/archives.html";>Articles -
and more articles!
Contact
Support - A support page with forms to send us feedback.
Detailed
Charting instructions - For COT Subscribers, detailed
instructions for charting in MetaStock and Tradestation
Obviously, there is so much more we can't detail here, so put on
your titanium clicking finger, and <A
href="http://www.tsagroup.com";>come see
us!
<TD
background=http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd_ctr_right.png><IMG
height=1 src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/buffer.png";
width=8 border=0>
<IMG height=5
src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd_btm_left.png";
width=8 border=0>
<TD
background=http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd_btm_center.png><IMG
height=5 src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/buffer.png";
width=1 border=0>
<IMG height=5
src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd_btm_right.png";
width=8 border=0>
<IMG height=27
src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd_left.png";
width=8 border=0>
<TD vAlign=center
background=http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd.png><FONT
face=arial,helvetica,verdana color=#026e49 size=3>Feature
Article
<IMG height=27
src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd_right.png";
width=8 border=0>
<TD
background=http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd_ctr_left.png><IMG
height=1 src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/buffer.png";
width=8 border=0>
<IMG height=1
src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/buffer.png";
width=660 border=0>
The following article was donated by one
of our patrons. We would like to thank Randy for his contribution,
and encourage all of our customers to <A
href="http://www.tsagroup.com/support.html";>contact us if you
would like us to publish a pertinent trading related article you
have written. TSAGroup assumes no responsibility or liability for
this content, and presents it solely as the opinion and view of the
author.
<FONT face=arial,helvetica,verdana color=red
size=4>Confirmation...That's What We Need!<FONT
face="times new roman" size=2>by Randy
Moller
For some time now, I've been paying close attention to coffee
hoping to identify a trend reversal. Lets face it, this commodity
can only go so low before the commercial producers won't want to
grow the stuff! Looking at the price data suggests that we are
approaching that point. Since as far back as 1999, the trend has
been steadily down, with no bottom in sight. I missed the entry
point, and so decided to wait until I could clearly see a
turn-around.
So how does one accurately predict this change in direction? Lets
restate the obvious… The more information that supports a buying
or selling decision, the higher the likelihood of success…
right? In trading terms this is called "confirmation". Is it
enough to establish a periodic subjective trendline, and go with
your gut? Only if you have deep pockets.
Lets examine coffee's current price data first, and add more
technicals to see if a long position is supported.
<IMG height=471
src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/confirm1.png";
width=632 border=0>
If we draw a simple trend line beginning on June 18th and extend
to the right, we see what appears to be a breakout occurring on
November 1st. Unfortunately, this information alone does little to
validate (or confirm) our long position. It is simply a "trendline
breakout" which could be an actual reversal, or, could be just
another spike.
Taking a look at the volume at and around the breakout point we
see higher activity, but we're still unable to identify which
group is trading, whether they are reversing their positions, or
simply reducing contracts. Identifying this information provides us
with very valuable clues as to the nature of the move. Now lets add
Commitment of Traders net positions data to our chart.
<IMG height=465
src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/confirm2.png";
width=601 border=0>
As a point of reference, the <FONT face=arial,helvetica,verdana
color=blue size=2>commercial group above is shown in
blue, the <FONT face=arial,helvetica,verdana color=green
size=2>non-commercials (or large speculators) in
green, and the <FONT face=arial,helvetica,verdana
color=red size=2>small investor in red. Notice that in
a downward trend, the non-commercials hold the majority of short
positions, and appear to be in control. This is valuable analysis,
but without having a more granular view of the group, we still don't
have a snapshot of what they might be doing at this point in
time.
Wouldn't it be nice to know which group is in control (or appears
to control), and whether or not they are suddenly reversing
positions? We might find out by first applying an open interest
indicator to see if the overall number of contracts is
increasing or decreasing, and then later creating and applying
long and short position indicators for each group to determine
who is doing what. Let's take a look at the same chart enhanced with
open interest data.
<IMG height=465
src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/confirm3.png";
width=601 border=0>
Here are the volume and open interest figures by date beginning
on 10/31/2001;
10-31-2001 - volume: 14,334 open interest: 60,370
11-01-2001 - volume: 9,214 open interest: 59,367 (notice a
drop of approx 1,000 contracts)
11-02-2001 - volume: 7,818 open interest: 60,241 (notice the
increase of approx 1,000 contracts)
11-03-2001 - volume: 10,253 open interest: 59,538 (again a
drop)
This cycling up and down in open interest is very interesting. It
also appears to be fairly consistent in numbers of contracts. Might
this suggest that a group (or groups) of investors are first getting
out of positions, then possibly buying the reverse? We can't tell
just yet, but by looking closely at the long and short position
indicators, we may soon find out. A 1,000 contract swing in a
60,000 contract commodity might not be that unusual in and of
itself, but it is enough of a move to prompt further investigation.
So lets now look at a final piece of information, the longs and
shorts data.
<IMG height=532
src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/confirm4.png";
width=586 border=0>
You no doubt noticed that a number of days have elapsed since I
started writing this. It's nice when your intuitions and analysis
bear fruit! As you can see, the next week's COT data has arrived,
and it appears that the <FONT face=arial,helvetica,verdana color=red
size=2>small investors (you and me) appear to be in
control. Over the past week the <FONT face=arial,helvetica,verdana
color=red size=2>small investors have moderately
increased in long positions, with <FONT face=arial,helvetica,verdana
color=blue size=2>the hedgers (commercials) reducing
their long positions. <FONT face=arial,helvetica,verdana color=green
size=2>The large investors seem to be reducing their
short positions, but are not yet jumping on the long bandwagon.
Remember that the <FONT face=arial,helvetica,verdana color=blue
size=2>commercials are primarily "hedging" or locking
in prices, and don't customarily try to make money on the swings, so
we wont assign too much value to this move. The <FONT
face=arial,helvetica,verdana color=green size=2>speculators
(large investors) are reducing short positions
substantially, which is consistent with the price move, and yet
not replacing them with long positions. This is probably one
of the more important pieces of information revealed here. In
that <FONT face=arial,helvetica,verdana color=blue
size=2>Commercials and <FONT
face=arial,helvetica,verdana color=green size=2>Large
Speculators outnumber <FONT face=arial,helvetica,verdana
color=red size=2>Small Investors 3 to 1, the fact that
they are not replacing the reduced shorts with longs indicates to me
that we cannot call this an upward trend just yet. If the
Small
Investors are driving the price at the moment, it's
doubtful to me that they can sustain it long enough to call it a
long-term trend change. All things considered, I'm going to remain
skeptical until the <FONT face=arial,helvetica,verdana color=green
size=2>large speculators begin "confirming"
it.
In summary, having additional information, especially data not
specifically tied to price, is an invaluable technical analysis
tool and adds "confirmation" to our other analysis. As of
today, our trendline is still looking good. Using my current system
of entries and exits, on a single contract I made $2700 over 10
days. Not bad…Not bad at
all!
<TD
background=http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd_ctr_right.png><IMG
height=1 src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/buffer.png";
width=8 border=0>
<IMG height=5
src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd_btm_left.png";
width=8 border=0>
<TD
background=http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd_btm_center.png><IMG
height=5 src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/buffer.png";
width=1 border=0>
<IMG height=5
src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd_btm_right.png";
width=8 border=0>
<IMG height=27
src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd_left.png";
width=8 border=0>
<TD vAlign=center
background=http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd.png><FONT
face=arial,helvetica,verdana color=#026e49 size=3>Upcoming
Events
<IMG height=27
src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd_right.png";
width=8 border=0>
<TD
background=http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd_ctr_left.png><IMG
height=1 src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/buffer.png";
width=8 border=0>
<IMG height=1
src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/buffer.png"; width=675
border=0>
<IMG height=56
src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/ontradexpo.jpg";
width=170 border=0>
<FONT face=arial,helvetica,verdana color=red
size=4>We're Coming To New York!
The Online Trading
Expo is coming to New York February 16th through the
19th, 2002. TSAGroup's Robert James Deadman will be a guest
speaker at the event, and will be instructing on topics such as
designing and analyzing trading systems in MetaStock, amongst
others. We encourage you to try to attend, and look forward to
meeting you there.
<TD
background=http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd_ctr_right.png><IMG
height=1 src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/buffer.png";
width=8 border=0>
<IMG height=5
src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd_btm_left.png";
width=8 border=0>
<TD
background=http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd_btm_center.png><IMG
height=5 src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/buffer.png";
width=1 border=0>
<IMG height=5
src="http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd_btm_right.png";
width=8 border=0>
This is an Opt-In
subscription newsletter. If you received it in error, or do not wish to be
subscribed any longer, you may unsubscribe by clicking on the following
link: <A
href="http://www.tsagroup.com/news-unsub.html?sSub=sdugas@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>http://www.tsagroup.com/news-unsub.html?sSub=sdugas@xxxxxxxxxxxx
|
![http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/header_logo.gif"](http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/header_logo.gif"){kind=link}
![http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/buffer.png"](http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/buffer.png"){kind=link}
![http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/header_right.png"](http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/header_right.png"){kind=link}
![http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/cot-banner1.gif"](http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/cot-banner1.gif"){kind=link}
![http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd_left.png"](http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd_left.png"){kind=link}
![http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd_right.png"](http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd_right.png"){kind=link}
![http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd_btm_left.png"](http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd_btm_left.png"){kind=link}
![http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd_btm_right.png"](http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/title_bkgd_btm_right.png"){kind=link}
![http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/SpyGla1.png"](http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/SpyGla1.png"){kind=link}
![http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/confirm1.png"](http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/confirm1.png"){kind=link}
![http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/confirm2.png"](http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/confirm2.png"){kind=link}
![http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/confirm3.png"](http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/confirm3.png"){kind=link}
![http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/confirm4.png"](http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/confirm4.png"){kind=link}
![http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/ontradexpo.jpg"](http://www.tsagroup.com/newsletters/images/ontradexpo.jpg"){kind=link}